Discussion-OBS Mainly midnight Wed night Feb 5-Noon Thu Feb 6 Snow-ice changing to rain Thu morning except ice may linger through Noon parts of I84 corridor.

[kat5hurricane]

29 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Enjoy these nickel and dime events, it adds up.  obviously I liked one big daddy event but hell with the past few winters being duds ill take anything.

Same, I know the snow totals haven't been high but this is the most wintry winter has felt in a long while with these smaller fluffy snow events and the cold keeping it around for a while also with a White Christmas thrown in there so it's been a good winter thus far IMO.

[The 4 Seasons]

Small update to bring the 1-3" line down into CNJ

 

[MJO812]

Ukie

[SnoSki14]

Wall of snow (2-4") to drizzle would be the best outcome so HRRR/Rgem combo.

[SnowGoose69]

I think there could be some surprises with this one, especially NE NJ/L HV area...usually in these events there is a region that is near the base of the high axis that really overperforms and sometimes does better than areas that end up staying mostly snow like say BOS/ORH in this case who have deeper cold air in place.  It typically is a combination of them sitting near the changeover line for a sustained period/not being as dry so virga is not as much of an issue and also frontogenesis.    Does not happen in all SWFEs but it seems to be often enough I always watch that area near the wedge axis at the base or back side of the high for it.

[BoulderWX]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

Well that would be something lol

[Allsnow]

12z euro continues with the thump idea. 2-3 for the area 

[wdrag]

38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think there could be some surprises with this one, especially NE NJ/L HV area...usually in these events there is a region that is near the base of the high axis that really overperforms and sometimes does better than areas that end up staying mostly snow like say BOS/ORH in this case who have deeper cold air in place.  It typically is a combination of them sitting near the changeover line for a sustained period/not being as dry so virga is not as much of an issue and also frontogenesis.    Does not happen in all SWFEs but it seems to be often enough I always watch that area near the wedge axis at the base or back side of the high for it.

agree and nearer the marginal snow thickness, generally heavier qpf, some of which yields snow.

[winterwx21]

Hopefully the NAM models are wrong. Seems as if most models are giving us a few inches now. I'm becoming more excited about tomorrow morning. 

[RU848789]

Thought this might help and not take up 10 pages with maps, lol...

12Z models are in and are snowier and a bit wetter, in general.  Tough forecast.  Could see the NWS maybe bumping the initial snowfall thump up a little bit, but maybe not, as perhaps they have confidence in the warm air aloft coming in sooner, holding down snow/sleet amounts to the 1-2" forecast for most N of 276/195.  We'll see.  

• For the global models, the Euro and CMC are both about 2-4" for folks N of 276/195 through NYC metro (and 1-2" south of there for Philly and northern SNJ), UK is 3-5" for the whole Philly-NJ-NYC region, while the GFS is 1-2" along/N of 276/195, but 2-4" for NENJ/NYC.  
• For the meso/short-term models, the HRRR and RAP are very bullish, still, with 3-5" for the entire region (a bit less for far SNJ), the RGEM shows 2-3" N of 276/195 (1" or so south of there)
  • The NAM and NAM 3km are huge outliers showing <1" south of 80, with a bit of freezing rain, but mostly rain falling (1/4-1/2") and 1-2" of snow to freezing rain and rain north of there.  Hard to take them too seriously given how much of an outlier they are - would be a huge coup if they were right.  
• Almost all of the models showing a few inches or more of snow above do eventually show a changeover to sleet and rain (1/4" or more of rain as temps go above freezing in the mid/late morning for most) with some showing a brief transition featuring freezing rain first, especially along/NW of 95.  

[Allsnow]

The trends today have been excellent for tonight and Saturday night 

[psv88]

Going with 1” for the city and coast, 2-3” north and west. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The trends today have been excellent for tonight and Saturday night 

Yep hope it ,continues. Few inches tonight and Saturday night would be great. 

[forkyfork]

finally a stronger warm nose on the hrrr

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

Some 1+ hr rates around the morning rush 

 

[Nibor]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Some 1+ hr rates around the morning rush 

 

Big oof

[jm1220]

It’ll be a race between the heavier snow rates and the warm nose aloft. If the heavier rates work out, many of us even the city and coast can see 2-3”. If it’s shredded up, the warm air will have an easier time advancing and sleet/rain will mix in earlier. In the shredded up case I doubt many near the coast/city get over an inch. We need strong lift and rates to hold back the warm mid level push. Maybe it can be held off until the precip is almost done. 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Some 1+ hr rates around the morning rush 

 

wild, thats 1.4 inches per hour right over my head at 9 am

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

It’ll be a race between the heavier snow rates and the warm nose aloft. If the heavier rates work out, many of us even the city and coast can see 2-3”. If it’s shredded up, the warm air will have an easier time advancing and sleet/rain will mix in earlier. In the shredded up case I doubt many near the coast/city get over an inch. We need strong lift and rates to hold back the warm mid level push. Maybe it can be held off until the precip is almost done. 

your eyes must have gotten wide when you saw that 1.4 per hour over our area at 9 am lol

[weatherpruf]

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep hope it ,continues. Few inches tonight and Saturday night would be great. 

It's the Snow Moon coming up?

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, jm1220 said:

It’ll be a race between the heavier snow rates and the warm nose aloft. If the heavier rates work out, many of us even the city and coast can see 2-3”. If it’s shredded up, the warm air will have an easier time advancing and sleet/rain will mix in earlier. In the shredded up case I doubt many near the coast/city get over an inch. We need strong lift and rates to hold back the warm mid level push. Maybe it can be held off until the precip is almost done. 

Also, for the immediate metro it would be helpful (for accumulations) if the heaviest stuff comes before sunrise 

[The 4 Seasons]

HRRR scaled back a bit, think 1-3 is good for many. some locally up to 4. But i think the overall area will probably be around 2-3"

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Also, for the immediate metro it would be helpful (for accumulations) if the heaviest stuff comes before sunrise 

it doesn't matter, It's February so sun angle isn't an issue.  I like watching the snow fall so I'd like to see it fall during the day time.  Can't see it when it's dark outside (streetlights only show a very narrow area, not satisfactory.) Heaviest snowfall rate 8 am to 9 am is ideal for me.

 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll be a race between the heavier snow rates and the warm nose aloft. If the heavier rates work out, many of us even the city and coast can see 2-3”. If it’s shredded up, the warm air will have an easier time advancing and sleet/rain will mix in earlier. In the shredded up case I doubt many near the coast/city get over an inch. We need strong lift and rates to hold back the warm mid level push. Maybe it can be held off until the precip is almost done. 

Good to see the nams now forecasting the heavier rates 

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

your eyes must have gotten wide when you saw that 1.4 per hour over our area at 9 am lol

I’ll believe anything like that when it’s actually happening. I guess one thing in our favor is it looks to be quick moving like the rest of our storms. Maybe we can get the fast heavy snow burst and end with some light sleet or drizzle. 

[ILoveWinter]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it doesn't matter, It's February so sun angle isn't an issue.  I like watching the snow fall so I'd like to see it fall during the day time.  Can't see it when it's dark outside (streetlights only show a very narrow area, not satisfactory.) Heaviest snowfall rate 8 am to 9 am is ideal for me.

 

In Manhattan, every factor helps. We’ve  been burned so many times with snow that just doesn’t stick with all the crazy UHI. 

[winterwarlock]

the NAMs refuse to budge from their stance of non event

[BxEngine]

You looking at the same NAM? 

[Big Jims Videos]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

the dot of moderate ice over my house surrounded by rain on the first panel is comical.