February 2025 Disco/Obs Thread

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I don’t think we see more than dimes though this is a 4-8” at a time pattern at best for now.. 

 

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Stay cool Don…nobody has any control anyway…but the chances are there, and after today it doesn’t look at the moment like Pennie’s and nickles.  it’s all anybody can ask.  

Just seeing this. If it’s that…we def need a few to hit the upper end of 4-8. But let’s see how it all plays out. Like tropical, all you can ask for are chances.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Just seeing this. If it’s that…we def need a few to hit the upper end of 4-8. But let’s see how it all plays out. Like tropical, all you can ask for are chances.

Gfs has a real storm that just missed phasing next weekend 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is ridiculous for next week in SNE. Solid moderate hit for Tuesday and then a major hit for Thursday. 

GFS misses with a real big one on the 15-17th potential...  Just moving the interaction timing a CH and we're correcting any perception of this winter in the absolute sense. 

Problem is ... the fast flow should really prevent the phase so ..it's like a baked in face smack limitation.   haha

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Gfs has a real storm that just missed phasing next weekend 

I’ll be up north sledding ..so that could help get that to hit lol. 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Just seeing this. If it’s that…we def need a few to hit the upper end of 4-8. But let’s see how it all plays out. Like tropical, all you can ask for are chances.

And the chances are there…so let’s play. Anything is better than where we’ve been. So it’s a win no matter what imo. 

[ineedsnow]

that was a hell of a GFS and CMC run at 12z

[ineedsnow]

its non stop fun pretty much every 2 to 3 days

[Prismshine Productions]

that was a hell of a GFS and CMC run at 12z

10:1 was 30, Kuchie 41 so splitting the difference ~36" for me

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[brooklynwx99]

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

this is going to be a big month snowfall wise

[Vinny Findley]

4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

47th anniversary of the ultimate Big Un for some parts of SNE

 

There was 3 feet of snow on my street from this storm. Cleared the streets with a front end pay loader with a 5 yard bucket. 3 days before they started clearing the road. 20 foot drifts almost covering houses in my neighborhood.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

Gonna need that with the -PNA, but that could be fun.

[Snowcrazed71]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

So there's hope that will still see some good events past next weekend through the second half of February? Not that I'm complaining ( And also not to put the horse before the cart ), we definitely have some great opportunities between now and next Friday which is only the 14th....

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gonna need that with the -PNA, but that could be fun.

the -PNA is temporary. that trough in the west swings through and it's full steam ahead

[Torch Tiger]

as we talked about a few days ago, we going to  apps runner/cutter city if this PV evolution happens

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

as we talked about a few days ago, we going to  apps runner/cutter city if this PV evolution happens

yeah, why use the ensembles when you can use a random OP run

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, why use the ensembles when you can use a random OP run

Right but it shows the downside and to be fair, last couple years arctic blocking has had a tendency to link up with the se ridge as troughs dig into Maui.

Still cautiously optimistic…

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right but it shows the downside and to be fair, last couple years arctic blocking has had a tendency to link up with the se ridge.

Still cautiously optimistic…

i get your point, but could you imagine the weenies thrown if the ensembles showed the TPV west and a ridge popping over the east and someone posted a loop of the D12-15 OP showing a cold pattern? they would get clowned

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, why use the ensembles when you can use a random OP run

the past several runs of the op have looked rather mediocre to unfavorable for that period

[ORH_wxman]

OP Euro has threats every 3 days or so out to the end of the run. Not really a surprise given the pattern funneling everything toward us, but good to see it consistently showing up almost every run.

[dryslot]

What a weenie 12z Euro Op run, The kuchie is off the charts..........

[wx2fish]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a weenie 12z Euro Op run, The kuchie is off the charts..........

Plenty of good looks on the ensemble mean too, right through next weekend. 

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a weenie 12z Euro Op run, The kuchie is off the charts..........

Ok .. so let's see ( it's seems that all models are on the same page, which we haven't seen for quite some time )

[Sey-Mour Snow]

We may never see an ensemble output like this again, it’s time to start cashing in on Saturday night though.  Then here’s the pattern at hr 360 lol 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We may never see an ensemble output like this again, it’s time to start cashing in on Saturday night though.  Then here’s the pattern at hr 360 lol 

pretty stunning blocking signal around that time. vort digging into the Rockies, confluence in place, and a rotting west based block

[SJonesWX]

49 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

the past several runs of the op have looked rather mediocre to unfavorable for that period

 

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP Euro has threats every 3 days or so out to the end of the run. Not really a surprise given the pattern funneling everything toward us, but good to see it consistently showing up almost every run.

 

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What a weenie 12z Euro Op run, The kuchie is off the charts..........

 

8 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Plenty of good looks on the ensemble mean too, right through next weekend. 

One of these is not like the others……..

[Hoth]

Let’s get that system next Wednesday to keep tickling north. Come to Butthead. 

[mahk_webstah]

Pretty unreal and that’s only 20 February. I was starting to get a little disappointed about Sunday but when I look at my ten-day forecast, there’s just a lot of snow in it. It’s just going to keep coming. Snow on snow is a blast. Even just having somewhere between three and 4 inches today. It feels like a big storm because there’s already a lot of snow on the ground

[ineedsnow]

EPS 10 to 1 mean is over 2 feet here through day 10  thats nuts

[Damage In Tolland]

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP Euro has threats every 3 days or so out to the end of the run. Not really a surprise given the pattern funneling everything toward us, but good to see it consistently showing up almost every run.

You wonder if it just snows everyday the rest of the month without stopping