Tony Sisk Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 24 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM seems to be like Patti Labelle and on its own. NAM is actually saying..."If Only You Knew" 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 There was a storm a while back in which the NAM was way, way more pronounced/ aggressive than most other modeling with the warm nose. I largely discounted it, got badly burned, and vowed to never discount it again. So, here we are again. I think the RGEM is a very good winter weather model with a good track record around here, so I will keep leaning my forecast away from the NAM as long as it holds sway with its colder temperatures aloft. But it's concerning. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Thanks. That song is stuck in my head now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 32 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: NAM seems to be like Patti Labelle and on its own. Perhaps the NAM will be shot by the Gendarmerie while staking its principled stand on a ramshackle barricade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 5 minutes ago, msuwx said: There was a storm a while back in which the NAM was way, way more pronounced/ aggressive than most other modeling with the warm nose. I largely discounted it, got badly burned, and vowed to never discount it again. So, here we are again. I think the RGEM is a very good winter weather model with a good track record around here, so I will keep leaning my forecast away from the NAM as long as it holds sway with its colder temperatures aloft. But it's concerning. Would be a gut punch if the NAM was right less than 36 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 12Z Icon: still has this much “snow” in south-central GA (up to 3.8”), 0.8” here, and 0.2” at Waycross, which all continues to make no sense: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 6 minutes ago, msuwx said: There was a storm a while back in which the NAM was way, way more pronounced/ aggressive than most other modeling with the warm nose. I largely discounted it, got badly burned, and vowed to never discount it again. So, here we are again. I think the RGEM is a very good winter weather model with a good track record around here, so I will keep leaning my forecast away from the NAM as long as it holds sway with its colder temperatures aloft. But it's concerning. Anti-weenie rule #1: Always trust the warmest model. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 The other short range NAM suite members do look better for snow in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 The HIRES NAM shows a really pronounced convective band in the gulf that appears to pull away moisture, however, the snow totals map do not seem to be affected much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2025 Author Share Posted January 9, 2025 I am holding where I am pretty much for the time being. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 RDPS looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Looks more like the HRRR and RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 ICON is better most areas than previous run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am holding where I am pretty much for the time being. Stay Solid ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 11 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Anti-weenie rule #1: Always trust the warmest model. Someone had a manifesto back in the old days and part of it was something like "take the warmest model and assume it will be warmer"... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: ICON is better most areas than previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Not better for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 radar and mping tacking time \ https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WXTYPE/loop25se.html https://mping.ou.edu/display/ https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 RGEM keeps me all snow until maybe the last hour 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrtsdsn Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Hoping the totals will increase and include more in the Charlotte area I'm on a yucky line there. I just hope it will cover the grass. I know it's busy and appreciate all of your updates. This has been a fun week no matter how we end up!! Can someone give an idea as to when the precip starts? Thankfully it will stick immediately! Good luck to us all !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 I saw these pictures on Twitter from Jacob_Wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 GFS looks similar to last run, slightly warmer mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 12Z GFS is heavier on precip in GA, higher snow totals and much higher ZR totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Lots of moisture this run! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 9, 2025 Share Posted January 9, 2025 Feels like a small giveaway about the mid-levels would be all this forecasted snow well NW of CNC…talking about Kentucky…too close to LP track…(I’m in Winston) . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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