October 2024

[Cfa]

Low of 34 here with a rapid rebound.

[Brian5671]

NAM has some rain late tomorrow mainly east of NYC

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Maybe at the top of the stone castle! But zero chance with a properly sited station 5 feet AGL. I wonder how many record lows New York was cheated out of in that era due to improper siting?

I think the comments were added to the wrong date since there wouldn’t have been frost that morning as Jersey City had a low of 45° also. A few days later it dropped to 34° at both sites. So that is probably the date that frost was recorded. The temperature shelter in 1924 was down on the platform. So it was a good sitting before it became overgrown with trees and went into deep shade when the NWS left NYC in the 90s. The anemometer was always on top of the castle. But now the trees have grown higher than the top of the castle. So the winds are too low. This is why the strongest gust was back in the 1970s before the trees were blocking the wind.

 

 

 

Data for October 18, 1924 through October 18, 1924
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	50
NY	WORLD TRADE CENTER	WBAN	46
NJ	JERSEY CITY	COOP	45
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	45

 

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Growing season over for NJ 

 

 

The growing season didn't end for my location. I was surprised when I woke up early in the morning and saw that it was cloudy outside. That was a MAJOR break. That cloud cover stopped the temp from falling right when it was hitting 32, and saved my area from having a damaging freeze. I was just out in the vegetable garden and not one bit of damage. I will be picking a lot more pole lima beans with this warm pattern coming up. Very happy now after being pretty nervous about last night. 

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The growing season didn't end for my location. I was surprised when I woke up early in the morning and saw that it was cloudy outside. That was a MAJOR break. That cloud cover stopped the temp from falling right when it was hitting 32, and saved my area from having a damaging freeze. I was just out in the vegetable garden and not one bit of damage. I will be picking a lot more pole lima beans with this warm pattern coming up. Very happy now after being pretty nervous about last night. 

Same here! I got down to 35 before clouds rolled through. Probably won’t be until November now. I haven’t even had frost here yet 

[IrishRob17]

3 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Nope, have hit 32 twice and 33 a few. Until the leaves are completely down i tend to run a degree or two warmer than some other local spots, thereafter im usually a degree colder.

My leaves are all down, just finished my final fall clean up. 

[gravitylover]

Leaves are mostly down so it's time for the final mow and mulch, lawnmower batteries are charging now. I haven't had a hard frost so the tomatoes and strawberries are still producing but I let the rest dry up so it's time to trim that back. While I'd like to see some evidence of winter on the horizon I'll take the minimal heating requirements and call it good.

BTW if you need oil I got it for 2.70/gal this morning. 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

30.2 when I left at 6:45.  May have dipped to 29 after that.  

Turns out my low was 29.4

[snowman19]

The models are nothing more than showers for Friday and Monday/Tuesday. Would not be surprised to see them dry out more. I honestly cannot remember a period that was this dry for this long in my life

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 84 (2023)
NYC: 83 (1919)
LGA: 82 (2023)
JFK: 81 (2023)

Lows:

EWR: 25 (1936)
NYC: 29 (1976)
LGA: 33 (1976)
JFK: 30 (1976)


Historical:

 

1846: In the spring of 1846, a group of nearly 90 emigrants left Springfield, Illinois, and headed west to California. The Donner party arrived at the Great Salt Lake and still needed to cross the Sierra Nevada Mountains late in the season. On this day, a heavy snowfall blocked the pass, thus trapping the emigrants. Only 45 of the original 89 emigrants reached California the following year.

1936 - The temperature at Layton, NJ, dipped to 9 above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)

1971 - A severe early season blizzard raged across the Plateau Region and Rocky Mountain Region. Heavy snow blocked railroads and interstate highways, and record cold accompanied the storm. Lander WY received 27 inches of snow, and the temperature at Big Piney WY plunged to 15 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms over the San Joaquin Valley of California produced three-quarters of an inch of rain in thirty minutes at Placerville, and caused numerous power outages due to lightning. Rain began to diminish in the northeastern U.S., but some flooding continued in Vermont, eastern New York and northern New Jersey. One inch rains in Vermont clogged culverts and sewers with fallen leaves, resulting in erosion of dirt roads. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Valentine, NE, dipped to 8 degrees, and Cutbank, MT, reported a morning low of one degree above zero. The temperature at Estes Park CO dipped to 15 degrees, but then soared thirty degrees in less than thirty minutes. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm crossing the western U.S. produced 10 to 20 inches of snow across northern and central Wyoming, with 22 inches reported at Burgess Junction. Seven cities in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings again warmed into the 70s. Alpena MI reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models are nothing more than showers for Friday and Monday/Tuesday. Would not be surprised to see them dry out more. I honestly cannot remember a period that was this dry for this long in my life

These strong 500mb ridges are usually located further north in Canada allowing moisture to undercut. But this one was right across the CONUS with too much high pressure for it to rain. Very rare situation to say the least. 

 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These strong 500mb ridges are usually located further north in Canada allowing moisture to undercut. But this one was right across the CONUS with too much high pressure for it to rain. Very rare situation to say the least. 

 

We are completely blowing the 01-02 drought out of the water

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models are nothing more than showers for Friday and Monday/Tuesday. Would not be surprised to see them dry out more. I honestly cannot remember a period that was this dry for this long in my life

Of course you don't, that is why some places already broke their dryness record or are on the verge.

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We are completely blowing the 01-02 drought out of the water

Driest first two months of fall for many locations.

 

 

[Brian5671]

50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models are nothing more than showers for Friday and Monday/Tuesday. Would not be surprised to see them dry out more. I honestly cannot remember a period that was this dry for this long in my life

Yeah models have gotten drier as we've moved up in time.   Hoping tomorrow night's "event" gives eastern areas enough to settle the dust...

[donsutherland1]

A warmup will develop starting tomorrow. The warmth will likely crest on Thursday with temperatures topping out well into the 70s across much of the region. The warmest spots could reach 80°.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 28 was 0.03" in 1973. At Philadelphia, rainfall has also been a trace. The prior record was 0.09", which was set in 1924 and tied in 1963. Today is Philadelphia's 30th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. That breaks the all-time record streak of 29 days that was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

Looking beyond October, November is likely to be warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +2.38 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.569 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.6° (2.7° above normal).

 

[lee59]

No signs of winter here but very wintry in Alaska. Fairbanks has plenty of snow and a temperature of 18.

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A warmup will develop starting tomorrow. The warmth will likely crest on Thursday with temperatures topping out well into the 70s across much of the region. The warmest spots could reach 80°.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 28 was 0.03" in 1973. At Philadelphia, rainfall has also been a trace. The prior record was 0.09", which was set in 1924 and tied in 1963. Today is Philadelphia's 30th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. That breaks the all-time record streak of 29 days that was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

Looking beyond October, November is likely to be warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +2.38 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.569 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.6° (2.7° above normal).

 

When we do squeeze out a BN monthly temperature departure it is by tenths of a degree.  The warmer than normal months are solidly above normal usually by 1-2 degrees+, or so it seems.  I have not gone back to check it out but it certainly seems that way.

One dry month I remember was November 1976, but that month was colder than normal from what I remember.  I recall walking to school and freezing my young arse off in frequent Arctic outbreaks.  Nov. 1976 may still stand as the driest November on record.  Again,  I did not go back to check.  December 76 and January 77 of course were frigid but I believe both months remained on the dry side.

 

 

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

No signs of winter here but very wintry in Alaska. Fairbanks has plenty of snow and a temperature of 18.

Rule of thumb is when Alaska is BN we are AN.  Working so far!

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

No signs of winter here but very wintry in Alaska. Fairbanks has plenty of snow and a temperature of 18.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Looks like parts of our region could get close to 80 on election day and November 6th. The ridiculous warmth and drought continue.

WX/PT

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Looks like parts of our region could get close to 80 on election day and November 6th. The ridiculous warmth and drought continue.

WX/PT

November is starting to look like a huge torch month, not only torch, very dry/drought continuing 

[Allsnow]

Congrats PHL 

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

Driest first two months of fall for many locations.

 

 

Wow. Wheeling, West Virginia had its driest summer and driest fall to date back to back.

[coastalplainsnowman]

This morning I am witnessing odd grey, vaporous, almost 'puffy' formations overhead, obscuring my view of the sun and the sky.  Has anyone ever seen these before?

[FPizz]

31 this morning, one of the few times the low was 5 degrees lower than the forecast 36.  

[SACRUS]

 

44 / 41 off a low of 33.  Warmup underway upper 60s today some spots to 70.   Near / low 80s Wed and Thursday.  Itll either be a race to midnight if showers maintain with the frontal passage and ending any dry stretched or itll be a arid front.   Near normal into this weekend before the ridge rebuilds Tue - Thu with much warmer than normal (70s) again.  Trough and front delayed till 7-9th where the next rain chances could materialize 7 weeks later from late Sep, last rainfalls.  Overall warmer than normal and dry through the 7th.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Trough / front now pushing towards the 7th or beyond.  Will that rain get east in any capacity, The 8 - 12 could be the timeframe

 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

This morning I am witnessing odd grey, vaporous, almost 'puffy' formations overhead, obscuring my view of the sun and the sky.  Has anyone ever seen these before?

I believe it was the last time the waste pipe burst in the down town sauna. Stay well, as always ….

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 78 (1971)
NYC: 78 (1971)
LGA: 77 (1946)
JFK: 80 (1971)

Lows:

EWR: 30 (1965)
NYC: 31 (1925)
LGA: 33 (2011)
JFK: 32 (1965)


Historical:

 

1693: From the Royal Society of London: "There happened a most violent storm in Virginia which stopped the course of ancient channels and made some where there never were any." Known as the Accomack Storm, this event likely caused changes to the Delmarva shoreline

1917 - The temperature at Denver, CO, dipped to zero, and at Soda Butte, WY, the mercury plunged to 33 degrees below zero, a U.S. record for the month of October. (David Ludlum)

1942 - A tornado struck the town of Berryville in northwest Arkansas killing 20 persons and causing half a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1948: An historic smog event occurred in the town of Donora, Pennsylvania. The smog killed 20 people and sickened 7,000 more.

1956 - A violent tornado, or series of tornadoes, moved along a path more than 100 miles in length from south of North Platte NE into Rock County NE. It was an unusually late occurence so far north and west in the U.S. for such a storm. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Arizona produced wind gusts to 86 mph at the Glendale Airport near Phoenix, baseball size hail and 70 mph winds at Wickenburg, and up to an inch of rain in fifteen minutes in Yavapai County and northwest Maricopa County. Arizona Public Service alone reported 2.5 million dollars damage from the storms. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Wintry weather prevailed in the Upper Midwest. South Bend, IN, equalled their record for October with a morning low of 23 degrees. International Falls MN reported a record low of 11 degrees in the morning, then dipped down to 8 degrees above zero late in the evening. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and north central Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced weak tornadoes near Snyder and Davidson, and produced hail two inches in diameter at Altus. Large hail damaged 60 to 80 percent of the cotton crop in Tillman County OK. Nine cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s. For Marquette MI it marked their fifth straight day of record warmth. Arctic cold invaded the western U.S. Lows of 7 degrees at Alamosa CO and 9 degrees at Elko NV were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

2011 - New York City received one inch of snow, the earliest they had received that much snow since records began. It was also only the fourth times since the Civil War snow had fallen in New York City in October. The storm also left over three million people without power including 62% of the customers of Connecticut Light and Power.