October 2024

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, CCM said:

Yeah, the past few runs have corrected warmer finally, so that's nice to see. The 6z run in particular was just ridiculous with multiple days in the 80s for Chicago.

Yeah, this is one of the few times of the year with a La Niña and -PDO that a MJO 8 is so warm in the East.

 

[SACRUS]

 

57 / 40, well into the 70s today to near 80 in the warm spots.  Mon - Tue - near to low 80s.  Wed mid to upper 70.  Front comes through Wed night and its looking dry on most forecats.  Cooler Thu - Sat near normal.  Beyond that the ridge rebuilds by the 28 and through the close of the month.  Overall warmer than normal with the dryness rolling on.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 80 (2021)
NYC: 80 (1969)
LGA: 80 (2021)
JFK: 81 (1969)


Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1974)
LGA: 32 (1972)
JFK: 33 (1974)

Historical:

 

1770 - An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. (David Ludlum)

1770: An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years.

1983 - Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California, afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to 4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

This is not a copy and paste but seems like it since Sep 29

 

[Allsnow]

 

[qg_omega]

Nicest fall we ever had

[MANDA]

That is a lot of real estate with not a cloud in sight.

[Allsnow]

 

[bluewave]

We have a shot at the driest October on record especially if the late month 590 DM Southeast Ridge verifies.
 

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have a shot at the driest October on record especially if the late month 590 DM Southeast Ridge and widespread 80s verifies.
 

This is insane. 80s well north entering November. Jesus

[WestBabylonWeather]

Can’t remember the last time we had a stretch of clear skies like this 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Nicest fall we ever had

Until everything starts burning and water restrictions go up

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Until everything starts burning and water restrictions go up

No need for water restrictions it’s been a record wet year

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

No need for water restrictions it’s been a record wet year

That is the only thing “saving” it right now. The reserve water supplies are still good. This dry pattern didn’t start until just after mid-August. If the entire spring and summer was dry we’d be screwed by now. That said, if this continues next month then we have a dry winter, we have problems come spring…..big problems

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That is the only thing “saving” it right now. The reserve water supplies are still good. This dry pattern didn’t start until just after mid-August. If the entire spring and summer was dry we’d be screwed by now. That said, if this is a dry winter, then we have problems come spring…..big problems

If your analog is correct then we're in trouble. Potential severe drought heading into spring/summer? 

Would be a fire season for the history books. I'm more concerned about that than water restrictions...for now. 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

If your analog is correct then we're in trouble. Potential severe drought heading into spring/summer? 

Would be a fire season for the history books. I'm more concerned about that than water restrictions...for now. 

I was joking with you and Anthony about 11-12. I do think 01-02 may be an analog though given the solar max/very high solar flux, -PDO, -ENSO, cold GOA and Bering Sea and the very dry fall

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Nicest fall we ever had

I vaguely remember a nice fall back in the late 70's?

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Nicest fall we ever had

Agree..how can anyone complain?

 

Also after it looked an early leaf drop and not very colorful  leaf season we basically  went from 15 days ahead to maybe 4-5 days ahead of schedule with some of the most brilliant leaf colors that i have see in  years. Deep reds and blood ranges intermixed with bright yellows and the still yet to change greens. Its Mother Nature like she has not been in decades

[psv88]

74 and brilliant today. California weather 

[bluewave]

Feels cooler than it usually does approaching 80° with the very low dew points and humidity.

 

Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY   77  35  21

[lee59]

73 beautiful degrees here.

[IrishRob17]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the 2nd and 3rd greatest October daily temperature range for your area back to 1997.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=MGJ&v=largest&month=oct&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

After that low of 32 I made it to 75 for the high today. 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Can’t remember the last time we had a stretch of clear skies like this 

It’s like further south and in CA when the jet stream lifts north of them after the winter. And we have little moisture in the air for pop up storms like they have in the SE. 

Beautiful days but lawns and grass everywhere brown and crisped. Crazy after what the summer was like. 

[donsutherland1]

In part, due to the ongoing intensifying drought, fall foliage in New York City's distant suburbs is beginning to explode in color. Five photos from Rockefeller Preserve State Park:

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be sunny and unseasonably warm. Temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. A few of the warmer spots could reach 80°. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern in place, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October. Any cool shots during that time would likely be brief.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall. The old record low figure through October 19 was 0.02" in 1886 and 1947). At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. In addition, today is Philadelphia's 22nd consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 13th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged. Almost all of the region is now in DO (abnormally dry) conditions. Southern New Jersey, Delaware, and southeast Pennsylvania are in D1 (moderate drought) conditions with some areas of D2 (severe drought conditions).

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, the expansive area of D0 conditions in the region will evolve into D1 conditions and the area of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey, and parts of Delaware and Maryland will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +11.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.159 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.6° (1.7° above normal).

 

[doncat]

75/43 temp split today...YTD precip at 38.66" now falling into the below normal range.

[Picard]

Walpack, NJ had a 26/77 split today, for a 51 degree difference!
I got to go up in a fire tower this afternoon, the one up on the Kittatinny Ridge, about 2 miles north of 206 on the A.T.
In chatting with the watch guy, he was discussing just how bad it was, and the fact that they haven't really done many controlled burns in the state parks over the past years has made the current risk even worse.
Fascinating discussion also about how he can pinpoint exact compass bearing and approximate distance to any smoke he spots, and then radio it in.  I guess they also use the Rutgers website for current weather conditions around the state, and there was a Vantage Vue mounted on the tower.   Important job now for sure.  

A bigger part of me is starting to wonder about these climate tipping points they've talked about.   Admittedly, I haven't taken them completely seriously on certain things, but it does seem like things are running in more extremes than they have in the past, and certainly much warmer for more prolonged periods.  And this warmth and dry now is really something.
  
 

[lee59]

74 the high here after a low of 40. Heat Island in full affect tonight, still 66 in Manhattan, 49 here.

[EWR757]

I live about 3 miles ESE of SMQ and 300' higher on the First Watchung Mountain.   There was a 20 degree temperature difference between the SMQ ASOS at 1:30 am (37 F) and my house (57 F).   

 

Quite the temperature inversion. 

[Roger Smith]

1947 and 1963 were similar Octobers (probably a bit warmer) and were followed by wet spells in Nov and cold and snow in Dec (in 1963-64 into Jan). Winters ended with mild, dry Febs and variable marches. 

Looking at warm Octobers, 2017 was a warm October followed by (in modern terms) a decent winter. 

Oddly a bad result followed way back in 1879, after a warm October, it was a mild winter. 1971 was followed by a generally mild and snow-deficient winter too. 1900 was followed by a very dry winter, not particularly mild.

I will bet Nov is wetter and the winter is not as terrible as the past two. Low bar, but 2024-25 can manage it.