October 2024

[winterwx21]

17 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Agree with winterwx. It’s getting late now, but you can still get it done if you just have a few patches and time it right with the temps. The key is to get it germinated. I would cover the patches with burlap. It keeps the warmth and moisture in during the day. 

That's good information. I know it's risky planting this late because the seed might not have enough time to get established, but it does look warm the next 2 weeks and who knows about November. Maybe it won't get too cold in early to mid November. And unlike doing a whole lawn, it's not as big a deal if it doesn't work out if it's only a few patches. He might want to take a shot. 

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

That's good information. I know it's risky planting this late because the seed might not have enough time to get established, but it does look warm the next 2 weeks and who knows about November. Maybe it won't get too cold in early to mid November. And unlike doing a whole lawn, it's not as big a deal if it doesn't work out if it's only a few patches. He might want to take a shot. 

Right. It's not a big deal either way. It's only like a 2'x2' patch that I was going to try it on and there's always next spring if it doesn't take 

[Big Jims Videos]

Heading to the NJ forest service tomorrow to speak with our NJ FFS officers on the late season fire dangers - It's a busy season for state parks for camping this time of year and there are many restrictions now in place with open fires. If you know anyone heading out camping or hiking, let them know the risk is unusually high for October. We've had a series of fires down in Burlington County this week. 

[Volcanic Winter]

I have no expectations for this winter with everything I’ve read so far. Just hoping we can capitalize on whatever chances we may be fortunate enough to have, like last year. 

That’s probably all we can ask, seems like winter is starting early this year. And by winter I mean a couple days of cool weather followed by a week+ of ridging. 

[bluewave]

We have been getting a sample of the San Diego average fall rainfall pattern last few months without having to get on a plane. 
 

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for San Diego Area, CA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.30	0.23	0.53
2024	0.02	0.00	0.02
2023	0.05	0.01	0.06
2022	0.65	0.09	0.74
2021	0.50	1.01	1.51
2020	0.00	0.12	0.12
2019	0.11	0.00	0.11
2018	T	0.57	0.57
2017	0.08	T	0.08
2016	0.32	0.07	0.39
2015	1.24	0.43	1.67

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-16	0.34	0
2	1982-10-16	1.43	0
3	1973-10-16	1.88	0
-	1967-10-16	1.88	0

[Stormlover74]

Today underperformed for a change. 61 at ewr. Forecast was 64

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Today underperformed for a change. 61 at ewr. Forecast was 64

cloudier than expected in some areas

[Dan76]

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

cloudier than expected in some areas

Clouds backed in from storm off shore.

[TJW014]

Just to show how dry it is out here: Where my truck is parked is usually in a foot of water, with an additional foot of loose mud underneath. Solid ground. Not a lick of moisture. I've been 4-wheeling out here as long as I can remember and have never seen this puddle completely dried up.

[donsutherland1]

A warming trend is imminent. Under bright sunshine, the mercury wil rise into the lower and middle 60s tomorrow. The warming trend will then continue through the weekend and into early next week. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern now developing, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -10.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.364 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.6° (1.7° above normal).

 

[lee59]

58 the high here, clouds kept temps down some. Offshore storm has been keeping winds up along the coast, and temperatures up at night.

[chrisNJ]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Right. It's not a big deal either way. It's only like a 2'x2' patch that I was going to try it on and there's always next spring if it doesn't take 

Id wait until Spring or next August. Ideally you want 10 weeks before frosts to get adequate deep root growth otherwise you are asking for a patch that grows a little this year but is susceptible to disease and drought stress next year. I’ve learned the hard way and started my renovations this year in mid August because of it. The reno areas look great compared to the semi crispy “old grass” areas. 

[Allsnow]

 

[psv88]

55 today. 

[SnoSki14]

It's very unlikely that we maintain these dry conditions all winter but if it is a very warm/dry winter then we're looking at big problems next spring/summer. 

We're talking major fire dangers here. 

[Allsnow]

 

[psv88]

43 last night, didn’t get as cold as expected 

[Volcanic Winter]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

43 last night, didn’t get as cold as expected 

Made it down to 38. Really seemed to vary quite a bit the past couple days with pockets of sharp radiative cooling and then areas where it wasn’t as much as you’d think. 

[uofmiami]

39 Muttontown & 46 Syosset this morning. 

[bluewave]

Near record 500mb ridge next few days followed by low 80s for the usual warm spots Monday into Tuesday. Then a few days closer to normal later next week. The next warm up near the end of the month should at least make it to 70s.
 

[FPizz]

32 with lots of frost 

[psv88]

25 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Made it down to 38. Really seemed to vary quite a bit the past couple days with pockets of sharp radiative cooling and then areas where it wasn’t as much as you’d think. 

Stayed windy all night. Thought we would get a frost last two nights but didn’t even drop below 40 due to the wind. 

[Brian5671]

Endless summer-Nina style

[jm1220]

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Endless summer-Nina style

Endless summer to endless fall. 

[BlizzLuv]

19 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Even with the warm pattern settling in, I think it's probably too late to plant grass. You typically want to plant grass seed a month and half before the first frost. 

Agreed. I planted grass seed several weeks ago where my neighbor's contractor had to dig up my lawn to repair his water line. They promised to reseed and did not. I finally did it myself just in time and now, last week, their landscaper ran the lawnmower over the spouting grass, ripping up green sprout, rutting the new soil and blowing away the hay topping. I am livid as too late for me to reseed again. 

[Stormlover74]

Monday looks to be getting close to record high territory now. Possibly 82 to 84 at ewr 

Looks like the record is 88 so probably not in jeopardy though 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

Agreed. I planted grass seed several weeks ago where my neighbor's contractor had to dig up my lawn to repair his water line. They promised to reseed and did not. I finally did it myself just in time and now, last week, their landscaper ran the lawnmower over the spouting grass, ripping up green sprout, rutting the new soil and blowing away the hay topping. I am livid as too late for me to reseed again. 

That sucks.  I had an electric fence for my dog put in years ago and saved all the little flags that they originally put in for training, so when I seed I put those out around the areas for that exact reason.

[SACRUS]

 

57 / 34 off a low of 33.  Near / low 70s in the warm spots.  Warm through Wed (10/23) peaking near / low 80s Mon - Tue, upper 70s wed.  Cool front, perhaps a shower but looks mainly dry Wed night into Thu.  Overall warmer than normal again by next weekend 10/26 and into the close of the month with the dry period continuing.

 

[MANDA]

30 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

Agreed. I planted grass seed several weeks ago where my neighbor's contractor had to dig up my lawn to repair his water line. They promised to reseed and did not. I finally did it myself just in time and now, last week, their landscaper ran the lawnmower over the spouting grass, ripping up green sprout, rutting the new soil and blowing away the hay topping. I am livid as too late for me to reseed again. 

Gotta love inconsiderate people. 

Been there and it is infuriating.

In the meantime this dry pattern rolls on.  The chilly nights this week have been great!

[forkyfork]

31 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

Agreed. I planted grass seed several weeks ago where my neighbor's contractor had to dig up my lawn to repair his water line. They promised to reseed and did not. I finally did it myself just in time and now, last week, their landscaper ran the lawnmower over the spouting grass, ripping up green sprout, rutting the new soil and blowing away the hay topping. I am livid as too late for me to reseed again. 

most of those guys have no idea what they're doing