September 2024

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

Partly cloudy calls on some forecasts as recent as yesterday.

[psv88]

How have forecasts gotten worse as technology has advanced?

[Dark Star]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

How have forecasts gotten worse as technology has advanced?

Good question.  I will assume the science will argue otherwise.  Of course, when I was banging, there were only 2 models.  Now, perhaps, there are too many models?  Several have known biases.  There are more, and better short term precipitation forecastng tools.  It seems some models, which have had good sucess have been reconfigured and have become less accurate?  We have ensembles, that are usually the most reliable tool.  However, we still see enough short term temperature and precipitation busts that invoke doubt, and forget anything over 4 days.  Long range is still unachievable ( or at least no better than using historical comparisons)?

[qg_omega]

Dry streak over

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

How long until we need to break out the coats?

January…..2036 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

January…..2036 

I haven't worn my heavy coat since January 2022

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Fake news. it looks like it's raining here but... no

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Fake news. it looks like it's raining here but... no

I had a sprinkle while I was driving-almost had to turn on the wipers!

[Allsnow]

Nothing here 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nothing here 

Had a few drops here, thats all.  

[gravitylover]

Doh, ended up with 47 seconds of drizzle. Just enough to splatter the dust on the cars and make them look shitty.

[Picard]

Sprinkles here earlier, nothing now.  Most of it isn't reaching the ground and is dissapating.  0.25" won't happen.  So my dry streak continues.

[IrishRob17]

Been wet here in central Orange County since mid-morning. I know you all are jealous of this .05-.15...

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Good question.  I will assume the science will argue otherwise.  Of course, when I was banging, there were only 2 models.  Now, perhaps, there are too many models?  Several have known biases.  There are more, and better short term precipitation forecastng tools.  It seems some models, which have had good sucess have been reconfigured and have become less accurate?  We have ensembles, that are usually the most reliable tool.  However, we still see enough short term temperature and precipitation busts that invoke doubt, and forget anything over 4 days.  Long range is still unachievable ( or at least no better than using historical comparisons)?

Good afternoon Dark Star. I can only agree, as stated. Considering your third sentence, l have to admire, if not envy, your early days. As always …..

[SACRUS]

 

Helene to Be invest 9

 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Departures through 9/22
 

JFK: +1.
EWR: + 0.2
NYC: -0.5
LGA: -1.2

Should decrease more especially if we can sneak in some 80s later this week.

 

[steve392]

Got a brief shower where I actually needed to use my wipers.  But that was it.  Nice cool day.  Perfect for opening windows. 

[Big Jims Videos]

We haven't turned on the heat or AC since before Labor Day weekend. Amazing stretch of weather here. 

[MANDA]

Just a trace of rainfall here today with a few sprinkles.

At least with a heavy overcast and temperatures in the 60's it felt like Fall.  I thought it was a nice day in its own right.

Still leaves us wanting some decent rain but nothing really in the cards for the rest of the week.

[FPizz]

Rain shower actually wet the ground here, nice  

[Rtd208]

The CMCE and the GEFS show the potential for at least some rainfall over the next 7 days.

[rclab]

14 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Rain shower actually wet the ground here, nice  

Same here, except the sidewalk under the sycamores, maples and oaks remained dry. The 15:51 report from Central Park seems to agree. As always ….

 

[Rtd208]

The EPS also shows the potential for some rainfall as well.

[donsutherland1]

A generally pleasant temperature regime will continue through most or all of the week. Temperatures could top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the middle of the week before a slow warming trend commences afterward. Showers are possible on Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall amounts should generally be light.

In the Southwest and parts of California, yet more excessive heat is now developing. Parts of the region could see near record to record high temperatures on one or more days during the week. Phoenix could even see its highest temperatures so late in the season.

In addition, a significant hurricane will likely make northwestern Florida landfall on Thursday. The potential exists for the storm to be a major hurricane on landfall given the ongoing marine heatwave in the region and relatively low shear. However, the hurricane's rainfall is unlikely to reach the New York City area.

Early long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly (2010), as was the case with the September 20th teleconnections.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.472 today (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -3.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.948 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

[doncat]

T . 68/60 temp split.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 94 (1970)
NYC: 97 (1895)
LGA: 93 (1970)
JFK: 90 (1970)


Lows:

EWR: 40 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1947)
LGA: 42 (1947)
JFK: 43 (1963)

Historical:

 

 

1722: La Nouvelle-Orléans (New Orleans) was founded May 7, 1718, by the French Mississippi Company, under the direction of Jean-Baptiste Le Moyne de Bienville, on land inhabited by the Chitimacha. Four years later, a hurricane destroys nearly every building in the village, including the only church and hospital.

1815 - One of the greatest hurricanes to strike New England made landfall at Long Island and crossed Massachusetts and New Hampshire. It was the worst tempest in nearly two hundred years, equal to the hurricane which struck in 1938, and one of a series of severe summer and autumn storms to affect shipping lanes that year. (David Ludlum)

1904 - The temperature at Charlotteburg, NJ, dipped to 23 degrees, the coldest reading of record for so early in the autumn for the state. (The Weather Channel)

 

1975: On September 22, Hurricane Eloise intensified to attain Category 2 strength, and became a major hurricane of Category 3 status shortly after that as it turned towards the northeast. Several ships penetrated the storm's center during its passage through the Gulf. Hurricane Eloise continued to strengthen until it reached its peak winds of 125 mph and a minimum barometric pressure of about 955 mbar. It moved ashore along the Florida Panhandle near Panama City on September 23.

1983 - A thunderstorm downburst caused a timber blowdown in the Kaibab National Forest north of the Grand Canyon. Two hundred acres were completely destroyed, and scattered destruction occurred across another 3300 acres. Many trees were snapped off 15 to 30 feet above ground level. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Autumn began on a rather pleasant note for much of the nation. Showers and thunderstorms were confined to Florida and the southwestern deserts. Warm weather continued in the western U.S., and began to spread into the Great Plains Region, but even in the southwestern deserts readings remained below 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front in the south central U.S. produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail near Noble and Enterprise, and baseball size hail at Lequire and Kinta. A tornado near Noble OK destroyed a mobile home injuring one person. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Seventeen cities in the north central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Devils Lake ND with a reading of 22 degrees. Jackson KY reported a record low of 41 degrees during the late afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds ushering cold air into the central and northeastern U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Indianapolis IND. Winds along the cold front gusted to 65 mph at Norfolk VA, and thunderstorms along the cold front deluged Roseland NJ with 2.25 inches of rain in one hour. The temperature at Richmond VA plunged from 84 degrees to 54 degrees in two hours. Snow and sleet was reported at Binghamton NY. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2005 - Hurricane Rita reached the Texas/Louisiana border area near Sabine Pass as a category-3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. A storm surge of at least 15 feet flooded parts of Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Terrebonne and Vermilion parishes, where sugar cane crop losses were estimated near $300 million. An 8-foot storm surge in New Orleans overtopped the provisionally-repaired levees (from Hurricane Katrina damage) and caused additional flooding. A total of 10 fatalities were reported, and preliminary damage estimates ranged between $4-5 billion.

[SACRUS]

 

Propblem for Mets  / Braves baseballl Wed - Thu

 

[Allsnow]

Nothing more than a few drops. Drought continues 

[FPizz]

.03"