September 2024

[SACRUS]

 

Helene swinging further Northeast before backing loop northwest

 

[SACRUS]

 

Departures through 9/26

 

JFK: + 1.1
EWR: + 0.4
NYC: - 0.6
LGA: - 1.4

[Brian5671]

.25 here last night and early this morning.

[the_other_guy]

35 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Departures through 9/26

 

JFK: + 1.1
EWR: + 0.4
NYC: - 0.6
LGA: - 1.4

Odd swing from LGA to JFK.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Odd swing from LGA to JFK.

My guess is it’s related to the record easterly flow this month giving LGA an unusual sea breeze influence. JFK always has a sea breeze influence while LGA usually doesn’t. So all the easterly flow resulted in the same temperature for LGA and JFK. It gave LGA a cool breeze off the Sound with a milder E flow at JFK from Central Nassau.
 

Monthly Data for September 2024 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL	ICAO	71.9
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	70.4
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	70.2
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	70.1
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	69.4

[Brian5671]

Some partial clearing possible for northern/eastern areas looking at satellite.

[winterwarlock]

On 9/25/2024 at 6:44 PM, Allsnow said:

Brutal for seeding and aeration 

Yep...we are delaying a couple

[IrishRob17]

41 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Some partial clearing possible for northern/eastern areas looking at satellite.

Been enjoying some sun with the clouds up here the past couple hours. Looks like clouds might be starting to push back in, hopefully that's not he case. 

[bluewave]

It looks like areas south of I-80 will actually do better for a change through Sunday morning with so much high pressure over New England.

 

[Brian5671]

Huge halo around the sun here as the high clouds move back in...

[Stormlover74]

Looks like hours and hours of light rain from tonight thru sunday morning. Which is fine for the gardens and brown lawns if it ends up adding up to a half inch or so

[qg_omega]

crummy weekend upcoming which is rare this fall

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

crummy weekend upcoming which is rare this fall

Too far north to get into the rains but too far south to escape the clouds

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 91 (1998)
NYC: 90 (1933)
LGA: 90 (1988)
JFK: 89 (1998)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1947)
NYC: 41 (1957)
LGA: 43 (1947)
JFK: 46 (2000)

Historical:

 

1816 - A black frost over most of New England kills unripened corn in the north resulting in a year of famine. (David Ludlum)

 

1822: Using various documents and meteorological observations determined a hurricane moved ashore on this day in South Carolina. One account from Bull Island, South Carolina records the eye passing directly over that location.

 

1906: The second September storm of 1906 was one of great violence. On the 27th the hurricane reached the central Gulf Coast with destructive winds and unprecedented tides. At Pensacola, FL, the tide was 10 feet above normal. At Mobile, AL property damage was severe. An estimated 134 lives were lost from Pensacola, FL to Mississippi from this storm.

1959 - A tornado 440 yards in width traveled twenty miles from near Hollow, OK, to western Cherokee County KS. Although a strong tornado, it was very slow moving, and gave a tremendous warning roar, and as a result no one was killed. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Long Beach, CA, and 105 degrees at the Los Angeles Civic Center were the hottest since September records were established in 1963. Fierce Santa Ana winds accompanying the extreme heat resulted in destructive fires. (The Weather Channel)

1985 - A record early season snowstorm struck the Central High Plains Region. The storm left up to nineteen inches of snow along the Colorado Front Range, and as much as a foot of snow in the High Plains Region. (Storm Data)

1985 - Hurricane Gloria swept over the Outer Banks then rushed across Long Island, New England, and Canada. It was the first significant hurricane to hit New England in twenty-five years and brought heavy rains and high winds to the Mid-Atlantic states as well.

1987 - While those at the base of Mount Washington, NH, enjoyed sunny skies and temperatures in the 70s, the top of the mountain was blanketed with 4.7 inches of snow, along with wind gusts to 99 mph, and a temperature of 13 degrees. Severe thunderstorms developed along a cold front in the south central U.S. A thunderstorm west of Noodle TX produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail in southeastern Wyoming during the afternoon, with tennis ball size hail reported at Cheyenne. Strong winds ushering the cold air into the north central U.S. gusted to 59 mph at Lander WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Freezing temperatures were reported in the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley. Houghton Lake MI reported a record low of 21 degrees. Thunderstorms in the western U.S. produced wind gusts to 50 mph at Salt Lake City UT, and gusts to 58 mph at Cody WY.(The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2014: A squall line impacted central Arizona, including the Phoenix Metro area. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like hours and hours of light rain from tonight thru sunday morning. Which is fine for the gardens and brown lawns if it ends up adding up to a half inch or so

sharp cutoff around NYC though...

[Allsnow]

Please be correct 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like areas south of I-80 will actually do better for a change through Sunday morning with so much high pressure over New England.

 

You can see that ESE-oriented precip crunch which means high pressure/confluence definitely at work. 

[ForestHillWx]

Brick wall in effect 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

You can see that ESE-oriented precip crunch which means high pressure/confluence definitely at work. 

I think the reason the warm front was a little further south than forecast yesterday was due to the models underestimating the influence of the high pressure in New England.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Brick wall in effect 

Typical ESE bent confluence look on radar with the rain stopping dead north of Trenton.

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Typical ESE bent confluence look on radar with the rain stopping dead north of Trenton.

At least it's not January 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

At least it's not January 

Looks like the rain won’t start until after midnight 

[qg_omega]

just nothing at all remotely interesting weather wise for the foreseeable future

[nycwinter]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

just nothing at all remotely interesting weather wise for the foreseeable future

if you are unhappy i am happy...

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the rain won’t start until after midnight 

18z HRRR has our area getting a half inch to an inch. We pray that it's correct. 

[donsutherland1]

It will turn slightly cooler for the weekend with highs mainly in the upper 60s and Lower 70s.

Helene has brought historic rains to the Asheville area. Its 2-day total exceeded the highest amount recorded over 5 days and its 3-day total exceeded its highest 15-day figure prior to 2024. Atlanta picked up 3" or more rain on three consecutive days, which broke the record set during December 8-9, 1919 and tied during July 4-5, 1994.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continues. The extreme heat will last through the coming weekend. Phoenix and Tucson will experience their highest temperatures so late in the season.

Continuing long-range guidance suggests that October could wind up warmer than normal across much of the U.S. The western U.S. could be particularly warm relative to normal. Widespread October warmth occurred during the last case where the AO fell to -2.000 or below while the PNA rose to +1.000 or above with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly in late September (2010), as was the case this year.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +6.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.304 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal).

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

18z HRRR has our area getting a half inch to an inch. We pray that it's correct. 

Raining here currently 

[MANDA]

Two day rainfall total here as of 8:00 this morning: .28".   All of it went to good use as it was a off and on periods of light rain and drizzle.

The rainfall along with cloudy skies and cooler temperatures making things look a little greener.  Leaves are changing with some good color getting underway.  Some of the maples are a a really nice reddish orange.

[Rjay]

2 day rainfall total of 0.05" here