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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I ended with about 15” here. Given our 30 year average here in the mid 30s per winter, anything below 20” I’d consider an F. Until the Pacific pattern meaningfully changes we have to significantly beat the odds to get even an average snow winter. Temps well above average are just about given. Maybe we can time a relaxation of the PAC jet for a snow event or two. Or buy a cabin in MT/the Dakotas where there’s actually still winter. 

I think we will get a decent winter..I mean how many bad winters can you get it a row?..There's a reason for  averages.

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6 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I think we will get a decent winter..I mean how many bad winters can you get it a row?..There's a reason for  averages.

It's always possible, but unlikely until we see this nightmare of a Pacific Jet end.  Again, I wish that NJ would make weather gambling legal...

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3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

At least last winter was an example of how we can get lucky and get a decent amount of snow in a very warm winter. Our area in Central Jersey got over 20 inches of snow. Not bad. Hopefully we can pull that off again if we have another very warm winter. 

I got 14 inches last winter ( 8 inches from the narrow band ) 

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3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

At least last winter was an example of how we can get lucky and get a decent amount of snow in a very warm winter. Our area in Central Jersey got over 20 inches of snow. Not bad. Hopefully we can pull that off again if we have another very warm winter. 

One thing I hate is useless cold. If it won’t snow I’d like it mild. Cold/windy and dry patterns are the worst. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Heat Indexes around 100 or low 100s for most with DP's in the low 70s. Hopefully this is the last really hot day here until next summer. 

I’m not ready for the cold, even if it’s largely muted and transient nowadays.

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First 95° of the season for JFK.

 

THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 28 2024...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2024


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         95    227 PM  98    1948  81     14       74       
                                      1973                           
  MINIMUM         72   1249 AM  53    1986  66      6       67       
  AVERAGE         84                        74     10       71     
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The temperature rose to 91° in New York City and Islip and 95° at Newark. Further south, it was even hotter. Washington, DC saw the mercury reach 100°. However, the heat will break after today.

A fresh shot of Canadian air will arrive overnight to close out the month. Following the frontal passage, highs will reach the middle and upper 70s tomorrow and Friday and then the upper 70s to lower 80s during the weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +19.36 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.718 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

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