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61 / 49  60 hour cool period and coolest since May 19/20th as cut off low swings north and east Tue - Thu.  Warmer by Thu and the warmer areas should get back above 80.  Much warmer Fri - Sun with next shot at some heat 90s.  GFS cuts off trough under the ridge building north Mon (8/26) while the Euro keeps the cut off off shore.  GFS would be a cooler and perhaps wetter Mon - Wed and the Euro would continue and push heat into the area.  Beyond there a warmer look overall with main heat west coming eat in pushes.

 

https://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/img/vis_nj_anim.gif

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5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Absolutely amazing mid August weather!  Gusty breeze and temperatures in the low 50's this morning.  Will make the heat and humidity all the more unwanted when it returns next week.  Honestly done with heat and humidity for this season.  This weather is great.

06z gfs doesn't really have any heat on that run

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The coolest air mass so far this season has been pushing into the region. New York City will see the mercury dip below 60° for the first time since June 11th tomorrow morning. The last time the temperature fell below 60° in August in New York City was August 15, 2013 when the thermometer fell to 59°. The current air mass is somewhat colder than that and the potential exists for the temperature to fall to its lowest level in August since August 22, 2007 when the temperature bottomed out at 56°. Some outlying areas could see the temperature fall into the 40s.

Thursday morning could again see the temperature fall toward or below 60° in New York City. Highs both days will be in the lower to middle 70s in the City.

A warmer pattern will likely develop starting next weekend.

Out West, cities such as Flagstaff, Las Vegas, and Phoenix remain on track for their hottest summer on record. Del Rio is in the midst of its record third extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 framework) of the year. The temperature could make a run at the August monthly record on Wednesday and Thursday at Del Rio.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the early fall.

The SOI was +28.10 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.428 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (0.5° below normal).

 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Yep if the "big pattern" doesn't show up by late January it's likely not coming.  Should have been a warning last year when the January cold was underwhelming and we went right back to the torch after 8 days or so....

In any Nina if we don't see something decent in December it almost certainly won't ever happen. We had the Dec 2020 snowy pattern which came back in Feb, Dec 2010 into Jan 2011, Dec 1995... you know, 1/4/18 which came back in March etc but plenty of other Ninas which were lousy in Dec and stayed that way. 

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