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July Discobs 2024


George BM
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1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

51.3 for the low here this morning. Canaan ALMOST made it to freezing!

CWG Twitter says Canaan hit 32 and a spotter in Garrett county MD had frost. 

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Dewpoint creeping into the 60s here. Still very tolerable, of course. 

Glad to see it.  The beautiful deserts of the southwest are much better at dry than we are whereas we're professionals at lush summers when the pattern is in our favor.

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6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG Twitter says Canaan hit 32 and a spotter in Garrett county MD had frost. 

We managed several hours overnight at DCL in the 40's.  I bottomed out at 46*F, but by the time I was out for my morning run it had rebounded well into the 50's.  Still refreshing to sleep with the windows open and AC off.

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59 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

We managed several hours overnight at DCL in the 40's.  I bottomed out at 46*F, but by the time I was out for my morning run it had rebounded well into the 50's.  Still refreshing to sleep with the windows open and AC off.

We’re arriving tomorrow just in time for the humidity to return :) 

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On 7/1/2024 at 7:07 PM, WxUSAF said:

Guidance hinting at a potentially rainy week after the holiday. Stationary boundary with good moisture flux from the south. 

This hasn’t aged well

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30 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

LWX disco sounds optimistic for rain chances over the next few days.  Let's hope as some CoCoRaHS reports in northern VA had only about a half inch for the month of June.  That is ugly

That describes mby as well. 

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Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD focused on Saturday-

Low pressure lifts northward into Ontario Friday night into Saturday with a strengthening southerly flow developing in the warm sector over the area ahead of an approaching cold front. This will ratchet up the mugginess even further with dewpoints potentially reaching over 75 degrees in some areas by Saturday afternoon. Combined with forecast highs for Saturday once again in the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas, this could bring peak heat indices in the range of 102 to 107 degrees, meaning heat headlines would be needed if this forecast holds. The synoptic scale lift provided by the cold front along with abundant moisture looks to result in widespread showers and storms by Saturday afternoon into the evening. And at this point, both severe weather and flash flooding look to be a threat. We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes.

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26 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’m still optimistic. The front placement will be hard to pinpoint and maybe we get lucky with a well-timed wave or two.

:raining:

 

20 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Noticed a backing off earlier this week then it looked like a small rebound then of course the old oaky doak this morning 

I said this about a week ago, but euro in particular loves the “next” rain event  lately. Keeps showing rainy solutions in the mid range and then pulling back at short ranges. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD focused on Saturday-

Low pressure lifts northward into Ontario Friday night into Saturday with a strengthening southerly flow developing in the warm sector over the area ahead of an approaching cold front. This will ratchet up the mugginess even further with dewpoints potentially reaching over 75 degrees in some areas by Saturday afternoon. Combined with forecast highs for Saturday once again in the upper 80s to low 90s for most areas, this could bring peak heat indices in the range of 102 to 107 degrees, meaning heat headlines would be needed if this forecast holds. The synoptic scale lift provided by the cold front along with abundant moisture looks to result in widespread showers and storms by Saturday afternoon into the evening. And at this point, both severe weather and flash flooding look to be a threat. We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes.

Yep, this caught my eye "  We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes. "

Never posted this, but the last rain event produced training cells delivering 2.55 inches of rain and the night before 1.52 inches. This was preceded by a dew point of 79 here. 

The atmosphere will once again be primed on Saturday to deliver big rainfall totals. I hope this time more folks in our forum are able to get significant rainfall.   

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22 minutes ago, frd said:

Yep, this caught my eye "  We remain particularly concerned seeing progged PWat values by both deterministic models and ensembles in the range of 2.25 to 2.5 inches which is again is close to climatological maxes. "

Never posted this, but the last rain event produced training cells delivering 2.55 inches of rain and the night before 1.52 inches. This was preceded by a dew point of 79 here. 

The atmosphere will once again be primed on Saturday to deliver big rainfall totals. I hope this time more folks in our forum are able to get significant rainfall.   

Yeah I saw the big totals in your area on the radar estimate. Places in SNJ had 4-6" during that period.

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28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I saw the big totals in your area on the radar estimate. Places in SNJ had 4-6" during that period.

Have you been to the beaches recently? 

I am trying to figure out why the near land SSTs are still so chilly. We have had some very hot days.  Maybe upwelling?  

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

Have you been to the beaches recently? 

I am trying to figure out why the near land SSTs are still so chilly. We have had some very hot days.  Maybe upwelling?  

I can attest that OC was chilly last weekend.  Swimmable...but required sunshine and internal motivation.

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16 minutes ago, frd said:

Have you been to the beaches recently? 

I am trying to figure out why the near land SSTs are still so chilly. We have had some very hot days.  Maybe upwelling?  

OT but has anyone been to Corolla, NC?  We went a couple summers years ago and the water temps there are wild.  We had one day with water in low 80s and the next morning it was 60.  Then back to mid-70s the next day

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17 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

OT but has anyone been to Corolla, NC?  We went a couple summers years ago and the water temps there are wild.  We had one day with water in low 80s and the next morning it was 60.  Then back to mid-70s the next day

Thats sounds like typical West winds or offshore upwelling.  Crazy days are possible there.  

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22 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

OT but has anyone been to Corolla, NC?  We went a couple summers years ago and the water temps there are wild.  We had one day with water in low 80s and the next morning it was 60.  Then back to mid-70s the next day

I went there once with my brother in law...we both rode our jeeps.  Definitely a nice spot, though it's a trek getting there.  Gulf stream basically bypasses OC and gets close to the OBX.  Water temps are significantly warmer in VA beach and points south for that reason.

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Have you been to the beaches recently? 

I am trying to figure out why the near land SSTs are still so chilly. We have had some very hot days.  Maybe upwelling?  

The air temperature really has very little to do with water temperature on the OBX in summer. Its all about wind direction. Southwest is cold, southeast is warm.

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

I said this about a week ago, but euro in particular loves the “next” rain event  lately. Keeps showing rainy solutions in the mid range and then pulling back at short ranges. 

That sounds like winter where they kept showing a pattern change/ colder temps and the can kept getting kicked. 

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