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July 2024

Stormlover74

By Stormlover74,
in New York City Metro

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SRRTA22
SRRTA22

All of you who root for this type of humidity, I hope your AC breaks

forkyfork
forkyfork

uncomfortably dry and boring today 

the_other_guy
the_other_guy

I hate to sound like a socialite from the 1920s, but Lake Placid is the place to be in this heat. Pleasant and beautiful!

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Rain and thunderstorms are likely into tomorrow. A general storm total 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely by the time the rain ends tomorrow afternoon. Through 8 pm, Georgetown, DE has picked up 3.76" of rain. That broke that city's daily mark of 3.41" from 2013.

Heat will begin to return during on Sunday. Early next week will likely be very hot and humid. The heat will likely crest during Monday through Wednesday. During that time, widespread 95°-100° high temperatures are possible. Cooler air will arrive late in the week.

In parts of California, Nevada, and Arizona, a severe long-duration and dangerous heatwave continues. Las Vegas recorded its record 7th consecutive 115° day. Boise saw the temperature reach 105° for a record-tying fourth consecutive day. The intense heat will finally recede over the next few days.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around July 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -22.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.206 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.9° (2.4° above normal). That would rank 2024 as the 10th hottest July on record.

 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted

At this point I'd be very happy to get a half inch tomorrow morning to give my vegetable garden a much-needed watering. HRRR on the 0z run is still giving us a pretty good batch of rain for early in the morning. Late tonight into early morning continues to look like our best chance of the week, but this week has been such a disappointment. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise if tomorrow morning disappoints as well. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
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Here's the crazy radar estimate precip over the last 24 hours, showing an incredibly steep gradient from flooding rains in SENJ/DE to moderate rains a bit inland from the coast to just east of 95 to essentially nada along and NW of 95, which was not what was forecast. It happens. Models still all over the place for overnight through tomorrow early afternoon, but the NWS is sticking with likely heavy rains (1-2" with locally up to 5") for anyone near, along and SE of 95. 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 930 PM, starting to see some increase in shower activity
from the south and southwest. The water vapor imagery shows an
impulse moving up across the eastern Carolinas and eastern
Virginia, and this feature should result in additional
increases in showers especially overnight into early Saturday
morning. Thunder has been rather sparse so far as
shower/convection is more low-topped, however the greater
chance for some thunder appears to be late tonight when some
increased forcing for ascent arrives. Made some additional
adjustments to the PoPs given trends and continued with the idea
of a slower thunder mention northward.

Otherwise, a front has lifted northward into the area from the
coast. Bermuda high pressure will continue to advect a ribbon of
rich tropical moisture back into the region along and south of
this front as well. Meanwhile, a broad jet located to our
northeast will result in broad diffluence aloft, strengthening
through Saturday. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is passing by
just offshore.

PWats remain around 2-2.5", near climatological maxima, along
with MUCAPE near 1,000 J/kg. The more robust showers and
thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing very
heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates of 1-2+ inches per hour.
The threat for severe thunderstorms is very low.

With all the cloud cover and moisture around tonight, temperatures
will remain quite mild, with lows ranging from the low to mid
70s. Light southerly winds through Saturday, though winds will
become light and variable at times.

Guidance continues to pinpoint the heaviest rainfall potential
from across portions of Delmarva and into the urban corridor
through early Saturday afternoon. An additional wave of
widespread heavy showers and some thunderstorms is expected to
impact this area beginning around daybreak Saturday through
around midday. Widespread rainfall amounts near 1-2" can be
expected, with locally higher amounts up to 5" possible.
While much of the area has been dry recently, the rainfall
rates may lead to some areas of flash flooding, especially in
urbanized areas. The Flood Watch remains in effect as previously
issued through 2 PM Saturday to highlight this threat.

SzDRXVW.png

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winterwx21

winterwx21

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is wet again for many

qpf_acc-imp.us_ne (65).png

Both NAM models went nuts for early tomorrow morning. It would be great to make up for the disappointing week with a deluge tomorrow morning, but who knows. HRRR has a decent batch of rain but nothing like the NAM models. I don't trust those overhyping NAM models, but I don't trust the inconsistent HRRR too. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I'll be very irritated if we don't at least get a decent half inch soaking. We really need some rain before the big heat wave. 

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
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7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Both NAM models went nuts for early tomorrow morning. It would be great to make up for the disappointing week with a deluge tomorrow morning, but who knows. HRRR has a decent batch of rain but nothing like the NAM models. I don't trust those overhyping NAM models, but I don't trust the inconsistent HRRR too. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I'll be very irritated if we don't at least get a decent half inch soaking. We really need some rain before the big heat wave. 

Radar's going to have to start blossoming soon

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Dark Star

Dark Star

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Talk about a horribly modeled wet weather week, at least for my area.  Every day busted terribly and today was an extreme disappointment with literally nothing to show.

Got a tiny bit in Garwood, but yes, this week's forecast from Tuesday eve on was a total miss...

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted


Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 99 (2011)
NYC: 99 (1966)
LGA: 98 (1966)
JFK: 98 (2011)

Lows:

EWR: 52 (1945)
NYC: 57 (1926)
LGA: 58 (1940)
JFK: 58 (1973)
 

Historical:

 

1951 - The Kaw River flood occurred. The month of June that year was the wettest of record for the state of Kansas, and during the four days preceding the flood much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri received more than ten inches of rain. Flooding in the Midwest claimed 41 lives, left 200 thousand persons homeless, and caused a billion dollars property damage. Kansas City was hardest hit. The central industrial district sustained 870 million dollars property damage. (The Kansas City Weather Alamnac)

1980 - Lightning struck a large broiler house in Branford, FL, and the ensuing fire broiled 11,000 nearly ready broilers. Firemen were able to save a few thousand chickens, however. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Cool air invaded the High Plains Region. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Sheridan, WY, with a reading of 37 degrees. Thunderstorms developing along the cold front in the central U.S. produced 6.5 inches of rain at Fort Dodge, IA, and 2.5 inches in one hour at St. Joseph MO. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Dakotas, including baseball size hail at Aberdeen, SD, and softball size hail near Fullerton, ND. Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in Arkansas and northeastern Texas, with 6.59 inches reported at Mesquite, TX, in just an hour and fifteen minutes. Garland, TX, reported water up to the tops of cars following a torrential downpour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Early morning thunderstorms over eastern Kansas deluged McFarland with more than six inches of rain. Afternoon thunderstorms in Wyoming produced up to eighteen inches of dime size hail near Rock Springs, along with torrential rains, and a three foot high wall of mud and water swept into the town causing more than 1.5 million dollars damage. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Arkansas, deluging Dardanelle, AR, with 3.50 inches of rain in less than twenty minutes. About seventy cows were killed when lightning struck a tree in Jones County, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: An intense heat wave affected much of the Midwest for a 4-day period beginning on this day. The worst effects of the heat were noted in the Chicago metropolitan area, where 583 people died from the heat. Temperatures across the region reached as high as 104 degrees, overnight lows on falling to the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew point temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s created heat indexes peaking at 125 degrees. Electricity and water usage reached record levels, causing periodic outages.



1996: Hurricane Bertha makes landfall near Wrightsville Beach, NC with maximum winds of 105 mph, but the storm surge dealt the most devastation. The U.S. Virgin Islands, along with North Carolina, were declared federal disaster areas. Surveys indicate that Bertha damaged almost 2,500 homes on St. Thomas and St. John. For many, it was the second hit in the ten months since Hurricane Marilyn devastated the same area. The primary effects in North Carolina were to the coastal counties and included storm surge flooding and beach erosion, roof damage, piers washed away, fallen trees and damage to crops. Over 5,000 homes were damaged, mostly from storm surge. Storm total rainfall amounts ranged from 5 to 8 inches along a coastal strip from South Carolina to Maine. Overall, as many as 12 deaths resulted with 8 in the U.S. and territories.

 

 

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