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Big shifts showing up in the west on ensembles now.

 

 

Gefs slightly less Gung ho in the east as it tries to maintain troughiness. Expect that to correct warmer if the predominant feature becomes a -PNA especially like the EPS shows.

 

The EPS is an all out torch with heat building to our southwest with a direct pipeline to us.

eps_z500aNorm_namer_43.png

gfs-ens_z500aNorm_namer_52.png

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 95 (2021)
NYC: 99 (1925)
LGA: 94 (2021)
JFK: 90 (2010)


Lows:

EWR:  48 (1947)
NYC: 47 (1945)
LGA: 49 (1945)
JFK: 50 (2023)

Historical:

 

1859 - Frost was reported from Iowa to New England. The temperature dipped to 25 degrees in New York State, and up to two inches of snow blanketed Ohio. The cold and snow damaged the wheat crop. (David Ludlum)

1908 - Helena MT was deluged with 3.67 inches of rain to establish their all-time 24 hour rainfall record. (4th-5th) (The Weather Channel)

1916 - A tornado struck the town of Warren AR killing 83 persons. There were 125 deaths that day in a tornado outbreak across Missouri and Arkansas. (David Ludlum)

1917 - Residents near Topeka KS reported disk-shaped hailstones six to ten inches in diameter, and two to three inches thick. The hailstorm was accompanied by a tornado. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - International Falls, MN, dipped to a record low reading of 34 degrees during the morning. Williston, ND, and Glasgow, MT, reported record warm afternoon highs of 94 degrees. Major flooding was reported along the Guadelupe River in South Texas, with the water level at Cuero reaching 18 feet above flood stage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 40 degrees. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 108 degrees at Glasgow MT was a record for June. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast during the day and into the night. Four tornadoes were reported, and there were 87 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

You don’t see this very often in the Baltimore area.

 

IMG_4012.jpeg

I was in college at Towson md for the college park (UMD) tornado outbreak, and we got the left overs of the same cell. Only stronger storm I have experienced was in Dallas Texas in 98. They are the far north east fringe of Dixie Allie. The reason I bring it up those were the strongest storms I have ever witnessed. Still, an impressive night down there. 

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In addition to the tornado outbreak in parts of the Delaware and Maryland areas, rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region is exceeding the guidance at some locations. Through 11:12 pm, Wilmington, DE has picked up 2.07" of rain and Philadelphia has seen 0.96". In short, while most areas will likely see 0.25"-0.75" as per the guidance, there will likely be pockets with 1"-2" amounts.

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I see HRRR has shifted south with the heavy amounts. Latest run is showing 2"+ for a lot of central NJ. Radar looks as if that's gonna be correct, but most areas to the north that get much less should still see a decent .25 to .50 soaking. 

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13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

My station on Fire Island has recorded 2.08” this morning.  Quite a burst of rain going on down there.

Yeah, this is one of those events where the South Shore did much better than points further west. Radar estimates from Fire Island are coming in near 2.50”. 

IMG_0044.thumb.jpeg.3dc56d2faef31a8c5b3c13b70d5ddd6d.jpeg

 

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1.12 in the bucket.  A warm, cloudy and humid 73/72 out now.  Clouds could break at times and a steamy low 80s today with more scattered storms later this PM and evening.  Clearing out Fri and this weekend is so far looking dry - no hear but near normal (80s/60s).   Overall a gentle trough keeping it near normal to slightly above.  Warmer by mid month with ridgng nosing into the east.  Caveat for heat would be onshore flow as this pattern has tendency for cutoff lows to develop, otherwise much warmer by mid month and heat the second half looking in the 6/17 period and on.

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

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47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Today looks like isolated activity this afternoon with the more organized stuff going north of the area

I really hope that’s not the case .27” at the park. Which means I have to spend the entire day tomorrow watering. Today I’m working at jones beach and there is leftover flooding from this mornings rain. 

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5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I really hope that’s not the case .27” at the park. Which means I have to spend the entire day tomorrow watering. Today I’m working at jones beach and there is leftover flooding from this mornings rain. 

HRRR for later-there will be winnters and losers

hrrr_apcpn_neus_39.png

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5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

.70 total. Looks like the bulk of the action went south last night 

I picked up .84 here overnight. This event was nothing to write home about, but at least we got the good soaking that we needed.

Hopefully we'll see a t-storm this afternoon, but it appears that the activity will be isolated as Stormlover and Brian pointed out. 

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