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  • Rjay pinned this topic
4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro still brings in a pretty good batch of rain, but holds it off until Sunday night. Hopefully we can get through most of Sunday dry. 

Yeah it's mostly a late night into Monday morning event now

Or it could still be nothing like the nam and gfs show

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Unusual goings on with the stratosphere as such a strong -AO +PNA block isn’t what we typically see during El Niño to La Niña transition summers. Very comfortable early June temperatures for us. Almost looks like the Arctic pattern change around March 20th was so strong that it got stuck in place into the early summer. But now we have the +PNA to go with the -AO 
 

58ECD0F6-985C-4010-AE21-4EFC83B4B393.thumb.png.fda53e85e18ae488bd7303a06dc36599.png
 

https://x.com/judah47/status/1795928965883826606

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unusual goings on with the stratosphere as such a strong -AO +PNA block isn’t what we typically see during El Niño to La Niña transition summers. Very comfortable early June temperatures for us. Almost looks like the Arctic pattern change around March 20th was so strong that it got stuck in place into the early summer. But now we have the +PNA to go with the -AO 
 

58ECD0F6-985C-4010-AE21-4EFC83B4B393.thumb.png.fda53e85e18ae488bd7303a06dc36599.png
 

https://x.com/judah47/status/1795928965883826606

Where was this in Dec, Jan and Feb?  Nice looking map.

I'll take it now though, it is a very comfortable pattern heading into Summer.

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78 / 46 just a splendid day. Mid 80s, perhaps a few upper 80s.  Clouds build in tomorrow but still warm 80s.  Overall trough, cut off / ULL into the E 6/3 - 6/8 temps near normal lacking heat and rain chances.   Southerly flow could push departures up a bit, perhaps a sunny day gets a shot at 90.   Mid month warmup.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Unusual goings on with the stratosphere as such a strong -AO +PNA block isn’t what we typically see during El Niño to La Niña transition summers. Very comfortable early June temperatures for us. Almost looks like the Arctic pattern change around March 20th was so strong that it got stuck in place into the early summer. But now we have the +PNA to go with the -AO 
 

58ECD0F6-985C-4010-AE21-4EFC83B4B393.thumb.png.fda53e85e18ae488bd7303a06dc36599.png
 

https://x.com/judah47/status/1795928965883826606

I guess the trade off for perma-Nina ruining our winters is beautiful summers like this without heat. Today I’ll definitely take it. 

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Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could again reach the middle 80s. Rain could arrive late Wednesday or Thursday.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent.

The SOI was +4.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.635 today.

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (2011)
NYC:  96 (1895)
LGA: 94 (1987)
JFK: 93 (1989)


Lows:

EWR: 42 (1938)
NYC: 44 (1945)
LGA: 46 (1945)
JFK: 45 (1967)

Historical:
 

1812 - Apple trees at New Haven CT did not blossom until the first of June, the latest such occurrence during the period beginning in 1794. Snow whitened the ground in Cleveland OH and Rochester NY. (David Ludlum)

1903 - A strong tornado just 50 to 75 yards in width killed many persons around the Gainesville GA Cotton Mill. The tornado strengthened and widened near the end of its four mile path, killing 40 persons at New Holland GA. A total of 104 persons were killed in the tornado. (The Weather Channel)

 

1903: During the early afternoon, one of the most destructive tornadoes in the history of Georgia up to this time, struck the outskirts of Gainesville. The track of the storm was about four miles in length and varied between 100 to 200 feet in width. The tornado touched down about one mile southwest of Gainesville, striking a large cotton mill at 12:45 pm, Eastern Time, just 10 minutes after 750 employees filed into the great structure from dinner. On the top floor of the mill were employed 250 children, and it was here that the greatest loss of life occurred. 

 

1919: Snowfall of almost a half-inch fell at Denver, Colorado. This storm produced their greatest 24-hour snowfall recorded in June. Two temperature records were set: The low temperature of 32 degrees was a record low for the date, and the high of only 40 degrees was a record low maximum. Cheyenne, Wyoming recorded 1.6 inches of snow, which is one of only six times that at least one inch of snow has fallen at Cheyenne in June.

 

1934: June started off on a warm note as high temperatures surpassed the century mark across parts of the Midwest. Several locations tied or set a record high temperatures for June including: Rockford, IL: 106°, Mather, WI: 105°, Hatfield, WI: 103°, Mondovi, WI: 102°, Chicago, IL: 102° and Grand Rapids, MI tied their June record high with 102°.

1980 - A man from Falmouth ME was struck by lightning restoring his eyesight. The man had been blind and partially deaf since a truck accident in 1971. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms in the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Lower Ohio Valley produced wind gusts to 81 mph at Albert Lea Airport in southern Minnesota, and baseball size hail around Otterbein IN, Sarona WI, and Danville IL. Two inches of hail totally destroyed 5000 acres of corn and soybean north of Danville. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms drenched north central Texas with torrential rains, with more than 14 inches reported in Commanche County. Afternoon thunderstorm in New Jersey and Pennsylvania produced wind gusts to 70 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing during the afternoon over the Southern Plains Region produced severe weather through the evening and the night, spawning nine tornadoes. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Alpine TX, and baseball size hail at Balmorhea, TX, Fluvanna, TX, and in Borden County, TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1999: A tornado with an intermittent damage path destroyed 200 homes, businesses, and other buildings in the southern portion of St. James, Missouri. Of these, 33 homes were destroyed along with the St. James Golf Course clubhouse and two Missouri Department of Transportation buildings. The tornado then moved east, south of the downtown St. James area and intensified. F2 to F3 damage occurred with a 200 to 300-yard damage path. Several homes and farm buildings were severely damaged or destroyed. Further north, severe thunderstorms produced many tornadoes around central Illinois. The most intense tornado touched down in Montgomery County south of Farmersville and moved into southwest Christian County. One person was killed when a semi-trailer overturned at a rest area on I-55. Across eastern parts of the state, high winds up to 70 mph caused damage to trees, power lines, and some buildings. The Mattoon area also reported flooding from these storms, producing $3 million dollars in damage. 

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14 hours ago, MANDA said:

Where was this in Dec, Jan and Feb?  Nice looking map.

I'll take it now though, it is a very comfortable pattern heading into Summer.

I think slight variations on this pattern could last most of the summer. I'm not looking for much heat but if there is some most of it from mid July to mid August. Then we'll see the tropics perk up with most vulnerable areas IMO the Gulf Coast, southeast U.S. coast, and islands in the tropics. I'm looking for early recurvature thinking that all features will be slightly south and east of their usual position on the maps.

WX/PT

 

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70 / 57 and looking mostly cloudy today but should be dry.  Upper 70s / low 80s.   Clear out tomorrow after an isolated AM shower and warm in the mid to upper 80s.  Overall near normal with trough into the NE the next week - no heat (90s) as it looks now.   Ran/ showers Wed - Thu before clearing out by Friday.  Still chance trough cuts off in the period 6/7 - 6/9.  Warmer by mid month.

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

 

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