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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just seeing both ensembles with a mean 597 overhead in June is incredible. How likely would it be that the ridge is significantly weaker in amplitude?

It’s full frontal female nudity .. all of it just swinging in our faces . Shake shake.. bounce bounce 

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Every time I check in on the next model iteration the signaled heat gets more extreme.  

It’s interesting that this 18z operational  GFS is both increased the ridge vertical and horizontal amplitude but is actually less height (vertically) than the GEFS mean, which for the first time is closing off five 596 dam between NJ and Boston. 
 

 

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earliest a winter storm watch was ever issued? 4 days ahead

 

National Weather Service Great Falls MT
159 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

MTZ322-327-330-141200-
/O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0015.240618T0000Z-240619T0600Z/
Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-
Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-
Including the following locations: Wisdom, Clancy, Montana City,
Big Hole Pass, Big Sky, Targhee Pass, Elk Park Pass, Dewey,
Wickes, Wise River, Boulder, Raynolds Pass, Chief Joseph Pass,
Homestake Pass, Corbin, and West Yellowstone
159 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible.
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12 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks like a cool down after a few days of high heat.

I mean it will be a cool down from 100s, but still above average. I suppose once you have been that warm mid 80s will feel chilly. My AC tuneup was going to be tomorrow, they rescheduled for the 22nd because of the number of emergency calls they are already getting as people turn on their ac for the first time this season. I am hoping mine is fine, but I am worried the refrigerant might be a bit low (hopefully no coil leak). 

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23 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks like a cool down after a few days of high heat.

Where?I mean sure going from 101/71to  93/ 76 is a cool down. But man.. this summer is shaking up to be one for the heater records for all of us . Even I may be ready for fall after 3 months of it 

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53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

earliest a winter storm watch was ever issued? 4 days ahead

 

National Weather Service Great Falls MT
159 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

MTZ322-327-330-141200-
/O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0015.240618T0000Z-240619T0600Z/
Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-
Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-
Including the following locations: Wisdom, Clancy, Montana City,
Big Hole Pass, Big Sky, Targhee Pass, Elk Park Pass, Dewey,
Wickes, Wise River, Boulder, Raynolds Pass, Chief Joseph Pass,
Homestake Pass, Corbin, and West Yellowstone
159 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible.

Doesn’t the season end 6/30?

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28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m still punting those 2m temps.

105 here is an easy punt a week out but it’s becoming harder to imagine how we escape something high end. 97/71 for 2-3 maybe 4 days is still big time. (As you mentioned earlier)

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22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

105 here is an easy punt a week out but it’s becoming harder to imagine how we escape something high end. 97/71 for 2-3 maybe 4 days is still big time. (As you mentioned earlier)

I’m not sure we get 97/71 without an assist in the 850 mill bar

Only the euro has been willing to cast a plume exceeding 22°C… I’d like to see other models join in. Heights are high ( in fact, that may be historic in and of itself) , but we need to see the lower tropospheric parameters more convincing.

That may yet be the destination … we’ll have a better handle probably starting tomorrow - 

95/71 is a HI if 103 anyway. 

it should be noted that with heights approaching 600 dam … the the ceiling is exceptionally high. The concern should the ‘unknown length’ of the correction vector … which is pointed higher 

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

I mean it will be a cool down from 100s, but still above average. I suppose once you have been that warm mid 80s will feel chilly. My AC tuneup was going to be tomorrow, they rescheduled for the 22nd because of the number of emergency calls they are already getting as people turn on their ac for the first time this season. I am hoping mine is fine, but I am worried the refrigerant might be a bit low (hopefully no coil leak). 

Same thing happened to me twice they rescheduled due to emergencies, but they keep taking $50 off for the inconvenience, they keep doing it I'll get it done for free.

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50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think he meant earliest in terms of lead time? 

But I think I've seen some watches hoisted in the Sierra's like 5 days out before. 

I wonder if the time of year and amount of outdoor tourists there are factor into the lead time.  West Yellowstone and Big Sky areas... that place is teeming with people in the "warm" season.  And most of them are not prepared for a wet snow... from those camping, hiking, etc.  Even some road impacts in the higher areas?  I guess hundreds of thousands of people visit Yellowstone each month from June-Aug.

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35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Roosters are gone in this new climo regime. They’ll be back in time for winter.

You should see my bamboo in the run this year after not going below 0F. It looks like Shanghai in there. 

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m not sure we get 97/71 without an assist in the 850 mill bar

Only the euro has been willing to cast a plume exceeding 22°C… I’d like to see other models join in. Heights are high ( in fact, that may be historic in and of itself) , but we need to see the lower tropospheric parameters more convincing.

That may yet be the destination … we’ll have a better handle probably starting tomorrow - 

95/71 is a HI if 103 anyway. 

it should be noted that with heights approaching 600 dam … the the ceiling is exceptionally high. The concern should the ‘unknown length’ of the correction vector … which is pointed higher 

That’s helpful, thanks. So basically:

1) It’s pretty clear that if this verified or even if we saw heights of 594-597dm we’d have a significant heat wave (while the heights are historic to near historic in their own right) but by itself it’s not enough for a truly historic 3 day 99+ high heat wave because as you said the other day it’d take time for the heights to expand and fill (?). That results in a sort of step ladder increase in daily highs so rather than 99, 99, 101 it’s more 92, 93, 95.

hI6SfdV.png


2) For historic potential, we really should see anomalously warm 850mb temperatures eject from the SW to our area. So far, guidance has been lukewarm on balance about it.

This is a snapshot of Wednesday. Obviously the nuclear 850s in the desert SW would moderate our way but we need ~22-25°C for the big temps and can get them on our historic days. 

ZTfCJKR.png
 

3) For now some of the guidance ejects the highest 850s to our west, but the euro does try to pull in some higher numbers later in the week. 

gj72win.jpeg
 

4IuyBUh.png
 

4) GFS still brings big heat on lower 850s, but that’s more dubious as over mixing could limit true high temperature potential. 

mf1dsHS.png
 

P1cTEoG.png
 

Is that the gist of it? Do we also care about 700 or 925mb temps?

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