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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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I just really hope the extended GFS is out of whack. It's been doing some funky stuff in the medium-to-long range lately. Not sure if its just behind with the seasonal transition or just struggling to handle (putting too much weight) on some of the teleconnectors which should be losing weight on the overall pattern, structure, and evolution. 

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5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I just really hope the extended GFS is out of whack. It's been doing some funky stuff in the medium-to-long range lately. Not sure if its just behind with the seasonal transition or just struggling to handle (putting too much weight) on some of the teleconnectors which should be losing weight on the overall pattern, structure, and evolution. 

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_60.png

10550286-portrait-of-young-man-laughing-in-suit-and-sunglasses-against-a-blue-sky-background.webp

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On 5/24/2024 at 8:24 AM, weatherwiz said:

I just really hope the extended GFS is out of whack. It's been doing some funky stuff in the medium-to-long range lately. Not sure if its just behind with the seasonal transition or just struggling to handle (putting too much weight) on some of the teleconnectors which should be losing weight on the overall pattern, structure, and evolution. 

Yeah it's been rough on summer enthusiasts with these models and the longer ranges.  Not really ever yet have we gotten a sense there's real heat lurking out there. 

And what I've noticed is that it's been different on every run  - as though no matter how it gets done, 'must not allow heat'. LOL.

I mean it's not like there's a coherent recognizable pattern type that's re-emerging every run.  The models are spraying out different reasons.  Here's the 12z GFS's latest summer cancellation.... Unfortunately, the +PNA/-NAO in the telecon is also attempting to accelerate to October 15, too.    Hell, maybe this summer's doomed before it gets going.

image.png.e86e18a6aaaf7aae998e12c0b75ebcb2.png

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah it's been rough on summer enthusiasts with these models and the longer ranges.  Not really ever yet have we gotten a sense there there's real heat lurking out there. 

And what I've noticed is that it's been different on every run  - as though no matter how it gets done, 'must not allow heat'. LOL.

I mean it's not like there's a coherent recognizable pattern type that's re-emerging every run.  The models are spraying out different reasons.  Here's the 12z GFS's latest summer cancellation.... Unfortunately, the +PNA/-NAO in the telecon is also attempting to accelerate to October 15, too.    Hell, maybe this summer's doomed before it gets going.

image.png.e86e18a6aaaf7aae998e12c0b75ebcb2.png

Is this a staple of transitioning from a stronger Nino episode to a Nina? 

It just seems very bizarre how there is such little model-to-model and run-to-run agreement or consistency. I know this can happen during the warmer months due to convection which can throw things out of whack but I can't recall seeing it this head scratching. 

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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Is this a staple of transitioning from a stronger Nino episode to a Nina? 

It just seems very bizarre how there is such little model-to-model and run-to-run agreement or consistency. I know this can happen during the warmer months due to convection which can throw things out of whack but I can't recall seeing it this head scratching. 

Anecdotally it seems there has been an unusual amount of variability even in the D5-D7 range lately 

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7 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Warmer look on the EURO next Mon-Wed compared to the GFS 

yeah.   it's hard to get interested or very enthused though when repeatedly the cinemas keep ending up looking like this out there

image.png.2963e2fece4ffbfce64c8178843fb466.png

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it probably wouldn't be as bad as that sort of impressions though.  This time of year, the lower troposphere ambience is pretty normalized in all directions ... weak baroclinicity and lacking much gradient below ~ 700 mb, probably lends to much of that just being mid and upper level.  Prevents 'big heat' but ... noticing the 2-meter are still 80 or better even when that trough at 500 mb is landing into a negative L/W axis ... To bad there's no early TC off the SE coast, huh

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it probably wouldn't be as bad as that sort of impressions though.  This time of year, the lower troposphere ambience is pretty normalized in all directions ... weak baroclinicity and lacking much gradient below ~ 700 mb, probably lends to much of that just being mid and upper level.  Prevents 'big heat' but ... noticing the 2-meter are still 80 or better even when that trough at 500 mb is landing into a negative L/W axis ... To bad there's no early TC off the SE coast, huh

 

We saw the same thing..

We’ll see if homebrew season will start by mid/late June. 

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17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah.   it's hard to get interested or very enthused though when repeatedly the cinemas keep ending up looking like this out there

image.png.2963e2fece4ffbfce64c8178843fb466.png

Ring of fire look though, right?  That type of pattern has a persistent deep upper low in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys?

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ring of fire look though, right?  That type of pattern has a persistent deep upper low in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys?

Right. heh

And it seems every morning the models are even more aggressively anomalous with creating a butt plugged hemisphere the likes of which would make February's envious ...

That said ( "sarcasted" ), I do think there's some possibility that A, the models are over doing it, and B, the lower troposphere may not really really be very well coupled/integrating vertically into those trough meanders - a typical aspect of the sun's enormous normalizing power.  It bakes lower Canada almost as much now so it's not like the mechanics are translating abusive fronts anymore.   The 2-meter temperatures are still 80 or so in some of these products ... etc.

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right. heh

And it seems every morning the models are even more aggressively anomalous with creating a butt plugged hemisphere the likes of which would make February's envious ...

That said ( "sarcasted" ), I do think there's some possibility that A, the models are over doing it, and B, the lower troposphere may not really really be very well coupled/integrating vertically into those trough meanders - a typical aspect of the sun's enormous normalizing power.  It bakes lower Canada almost as much now so it's not like the mechanics are translating abusive fronts anymore.   The 2-meter temperatures are still 80 or so in some of these products ... etc.

Yeah I doubt its truly below normal temps.  Always take the over these days.  This time of year seems to max out the disconnect from upper level trough to surface temperatures.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I doubt its truly below normal temps.  Always take the over these days.  This time of year seems to max out the disconnect from upper level trough to surface temperatures.

At the end of the 12z GGEM it parks a -2 or -3 SD mid/ua low over or just N of Lake Superior with a highly curved flow running underneath that subtends clear to ST Louis yet ... 570 dm thickness to NYC  ...

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