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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The more consolidated solutions have incredible dynamics. But something like the GFS is less intriguing until you are into high terrain of NNE. You have the low trying to escape northeast too quickly early before it finally gets tugged back. 

Yeah I mean don't get me wrong the ceiling with this is definitely high, but I just can't see this being another April 97, even if the consolidated solutions were to verify. April 1982 is the least applicable because this one lacks the same cold antecedent airmass. I could imagine a ceiling event with this one being 03/29/70 which was the Easter Sunday blizzard if the low retrogrades back sooner. So it has potential, just not sure its April 97 potential.

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5 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah I mean don't get me wrong the ceiling with this is definitely high, but I just can't see this being another April 97, even if the consolidated solutions were to verify. April 1982 is the least applicable because this one lacks the same cold antecedent airmass. I could imagine a ceiling event with this one being 03/29/70 which was the Easter Sunday blizzard if the low retrogrades back sooner. So it has potential, just not sure its April 97 potential.

 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Go back to the pre-clown map era when you have marginal temp profile….esp under 800-1000 feet  

1. Look for 6 hourly QPF greater than 0.50”…preferably 0.75”+. The heavier the better, but 0.25 or 0.37 over 6 hours isn’t gonna cut it. That’s mostly white rain. 

2. Look at 925 temps. Typically want -2ish or colder to avoid total slop though -1 will work if youre pounding with good snow growth aloft. 
 

If you aren’t satisfying both of those criteria, then you’re looking at something significantly under 10:1 ratios. 
 

Nocturnal timing for max precip can help a bit too, but it’s less significant than the two factors above. 

ORH yellow thumpity thump

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I am just in awe of the whole 500mb evolution. But while the 500 evolution is a beauty, how the surface evolves is going to be a giant PITA to figure out I think. With how things continue to look though I would not be surprised to see the highest totals in the 3 foot range and this would be achieved in favored upslope areas along the Greens and Berks.

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am just in awe of the whole 500mb evolution. But while the 500 evolution is a beauty, how the surface evolves is going to be a giant PITA to figure out I think. With how things continue to look though I would not be surprised to see the highest totals in the 3 foot range and this would be achieved in favored upslope areas along the Greens and Berks.

I’m going eastern facing side of the Whites for the jackpot right now.

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I am just in awe of the whole 500mb evolution. But while the 500 evolution is a beauty, how the surface evolves is going to be a giant PITA to figure out I think. With how things continue to look though I would not be surprised to see the highest totals in the 3 foot range and this would be achieved in favored upslope areas along the Greens and Berks.

So you’re saying a certain ski resort in the northern greens 5 miles from the Canadian border looks like a powder fest late week? Preach on, sir!


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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m going eastern facing side of the Whites for the jackpot right now.

It will be some place no one lives. 

 

45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am just in awe of the whole 500mb evolution. But while the 500 evolution is a beauty, how the surface evolves is going to be a giant PITA to figure out I think. With how things continue to look though I would not be surprised to see the highest totals in the 3 foot range and this would be achieved in favored upslope areas along the Greens and Berks.

I don't give a rat's ass about the H5 evolution if it focuses all of the snow over Fort Otter****, ME again.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Phineas could get a 30 burger in this setup. 

Long duration E-NE flow into that topography… it really is the first big wall encountered by the moist Atlantic maritime air.

If mountains are rocks in a stream, when the water flows from the east into New England, the largest build-up of water is on the east side of the Apps. West of there is turbulent (windy/angry) flow.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Long duration E-NE flow into that topography… it really is the first big wall encountered by the moist Atlantic maritime air.

If mountains are rocks in a stream, when the water flows from the east into New England, the largest build-up of water is on the east side of the Apps. West of there is turbulent (windy/angry) flow.

Yeah it’s not surprising that is also where some laughable storm totals have occurred when the stars line up. Like 60”+ type totals every once in a while in that high terrain east side near Pinkham Notch. 

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24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, alI I said was a shot at 6"+ NOP and out of the CTRV....that isn't far fetched. You are the one said I should have extended it further to the south. Lol

I’m joking around with those comments but this always favored NNE . And that’s where it will be 

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