weatherwiz Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 I don't think we are going to have a great idea on how this will unfold until probably Tuesday evening. With multiple rounds of convection these next few days within the Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley that is surely going to greatly impact many of the key features, including the primary. With the degree of convection which seems likely along the warm front these next few days (including today) this may help shunt the warm front south a bit. It is also possible the primary low ends up being farther south and not thrown into Michigan like some guidance is showing. I think the GFS may be too far north partly because it seems to be somewhat too aggressive with how far north into the mid country the warm front lifts and ultimately it is pegging a northerly displaced MCS and subsequently, farther north with the primary. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Getting close to a non-event in my region, how farther north is this thing going? Geez 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Even in mid-winter the appetite would be fairly small but in early April after a terrible winter, nobody will stay and track a storm that doesn’t give good snow within 50-75 miles. We are basically one more 00z run bump north from 80-90% of the forum checking out…myself included. For what it's worth northern worcester hills still have a small shot, me and ineedsnow are probably going to track this until it's gotime, above comment nonwithstanding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 25 minutes ago, powderfreak said: There’s a decent NNE contingency, I feel like it’s stronger than it has been in past years with a couple of the new posters too. But post count has dropped quite a lot since those Dec 1992 runs. I think you’re right but some of us are checked out, well, I am. I’m ready for golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think we are going to have a great idea on how this will unfold until probably Tuesday evening. With multiple rounds of convection these next few days within the Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley that is surely going to greatly impact many of the key features, including the primary. With the degree of convection which seems likely along the warm front these next few days (including today) this may help shunt the warm front south a bit. It is also possible the primary low ends up being farther south and not thrown into Michigan like some guidance is showing. I think the GFS may be too far north partly because it seems to be somewhat too aggressive with how far north into the mid country the warm front lifts and ultimately it is pegging a northerly displaced MCS and subsequently, farther north with the primary. Agree, call me a weenie but it's still a long ways away, hence me not throwing in the towel yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah you’re right, it’s NW slopes of the Dacks into Canada. That SFC track is Adirondacks all the way too. Though low level jet on front side would be enough to get NH/ME foothills/Mtns. Thats a classic track for a split here in N.VT between mid-level synoptic lift west and low level WCB lifting east. Occluded mess. Need to keep the primary weaker and south. But that is the opposite of the current trend. Even for NNE I think keep the upper air a little toned down is what you want…not as much as SNE needs it but there’s a happy medium. But some of these GFS runs are just wrapping this thing up so much that there’s really no chance to consolidate the WAA/CCB together. Hopefully things trend back a little but I’m not optimistic about that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said: Agree, call me a weenie but it's still a long ways away, hence me not throwing in the towel yet It's just all about expectations. Of course though since everyone loves to just stroll right to the snowfall maps expectations are already lost but if you live in northern New England and/or have elevation well, climatologically you stand the best chance for some significant snowfall accumulations. We know this is going to be an anomalous evolution for this time of year and with that we should anticipate or expect there will be at least some sort of anomalous outcome. But what does that mean, well that's what we figure out over these next few days. I mean me in Springfield, it would be foolish to expect or anticipate 12'' of snow, but is it plausible to think I have a shot for say 2-4'' or 4-6'', absolutely and that's the anomalous aspect. I think mostly everyone will see frozen precipitation (except maybe immediate coastal Plain) but it's just a matter of how impactful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 8 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said: Getting close to a non-event in my region, how farther north is this thing going? Geez For what it's worth northern worcester hills still have a small shot, me and ineedsnow are probably going to track this until it's gotime, above comment nonwithstanding N ORH county is def still in the game for big snow, but another tick and it’s over there too (outside of maybe advisory type snows on the WAA front end). Really need to stop this trend of a massive bombing primary in N Michigan/Lake Huron. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 A little glimmer of hope is that the high resolution models are showing the low in the Midwest further SE than the GFS and Euro, more in line with what the Ukie and Canadian are showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: N ORH county is def still in the game for big snow, but another tick and it’s over there too (outside of maybe advisory type snows on the WAA front end). Really need to stop this trend of a massive bombing primary in N Michigan/Lake Huron. Agreed, its already almost left the station, another day of this northern movement and she's gone, unless it turns around and trends south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Even in mid-winter the appetite would be fairly small but in early April after a terrible winter, nobody will stay and track a storm that doesn’t give good snow within 50-75 miles. We are basically one more 00z run bump north from 80-90% of the forum checking out…myself included. Na I get it..if it’s not historic or you’re not looking for a few more deep powder days to scratch the itch til next season, it’s nothing more than a stat padder that’s melted 6 hours after it falls. I’m just hoping for a memorable weekend to finish the powder days for the year.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's just all about expectations. Of course though since everyone loves to just stroll right to the snowfall maps expectations are already lost but if you live in northern New England and/or have elevation well, climatologically you stand the best chance for some significant snowfall accumulations. We know this is going to be an anomalous evolution for this time of year and with that we should anticipate or expect there will be at least some sort of anomalous outcome. But what does that mean, well that's what we figure out over these next few days. I mean me in Springfield, it would be foolish to expect or anticipate 12'' of snow, but is it plausible to think I have a shot for say 2-4'' or 4-6'', absolutely and that's the anomalous aspect. I think mostly everyone will see frozen precipitation (except maybe immediate coastal Plain) but it's just a matter of how impactful. Agreed, still think NNE gets slammed, Massachusetts will likely be a contested region until gotime, no formal training just someone who lives here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think we are going to have a great idea on how this will unfold until probably Tuesday evening. With multiple rounds of convection these next few days within the Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley that is surely going to greatly impact many of the key features, including the primary. With the degree of convection which seems likely along the warm front these next few days (including today) this may help shunt the warm front south a bit. It is also possible the primary low ends up being farther south and not thrown into Michigan like some guidance is showing. I think the GFS may be too far north partly because it seems to be somewhat too aggressive with how far north into the mid country the warm front lifts and ultimately it is pegging a northerly displaced MCS and subsequently, farther north with the primary. I think we have a stupendous idea of how it will evolve right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Watching this closely. Waiting for that white unicorn for 6 years now. The one day I have a snow day and my kids don’t. My district tucked up in the nw corner of mass has had zero snow days this school year. My kids have had a few but they are down in the valley. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 GEFS shifted south btwSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think we have a stupendous idea of how it will evolve right now. Then suddenly! "WAGONS SOUTH!" 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS shifted south btw Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Lmao comedic timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said: Then suddenly! "WAGONS SOUTH!" We have had runs (usually 12z) inch southward, but the aggregate trend has been north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 9 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said: Then suddenly! "WAGONS SOUTH!" Last summer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 17 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: GEFS shifted south btw Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Did they? Looks to me like the 18z GEFS moved pretty meaningfully inland / warmer for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: Did they? Looks to me like the 18z GEFS moved pretty meaningfully inland / warmer for SNE. Better for her, worse for you. Looks like noise to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathernoob335 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have had runs (usually 12z) inch southward, but the aggregate trend has been north. Yeah, it's not over till it's over but it's not a good look for my area if trends continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 24 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said: Yeah, it's not over till it's over but it's not a good look for my area if trends continue Right, the trend north/closer has been for several runs which is generally a bad sign. Tomorrow is kind of the make or break day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Low is probably going to plow into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 18z Euro continuing to focus more on the primary. The WAA thump is much less while it puts a 20-burger in the St Lawrence Valley in NW NY. 12z through 96hrs: To new 18z through 90 hours: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 This is a rainer for SNE but the ski slopes could be in for another big time event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: See if we can reserve trends a bit tonight. I’ll stay interested through 12z tomorrow. Funny, I was just telling someone that if anything still shows 12Z Tuesday I'll be slightly interested... although I'm really totally over anything winter at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcglups Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 The discussion from gyx mentions the "foggier effect", what is that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 6 minutes ago, mcglups said: The discussion from gyx mentions the "foggier effect", what is that? No idea. They're probably making shit up. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said: This is a rainer for SNE but the ski slopes could be in for another big time event. A fitting end to a true ratter of a winter... 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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