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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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I don't think we are going to have a great idea on how this will unfold until probably Tuesday evening. With multiple rounds of convection these next few days within the Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley that is surely going to greatly impact many of the key features, including the primary. With the degree of convection which seems likely along the warm front these next few days (including today) this may help shunt the warm front south a bit. It is also possible the primary low ends up being farther south and not thrown into Michigan like some guidance is showing. I think the GFS may be too far north partly because it seems to be somewhat too aggressive with how far north into the mid country the warm front lifts and ultimately it is pegging a northerly displaced MCS and subsequently, farther north with the primary. 

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Getting close to a non-event in my region, how farther north is this thing going? Geez

 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even in mid-winter the appetite would be fairly small but in early April after a terrible winter, nobody will stay and track a storm that doesn’t give good snow within 50-75 miles. We are basically one more 00z run bump north from 80-90% of the forum checking out…myself included. 

For what it's worth northern worcester hills still have a small shot, me and ineedsnow are probably going to track this until it's gotime, above comment nonwithstanding :lol:

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

There’s a decent NNE contingency, I feel like it’s stronger than it has been in past years with a couple of the new posters too.  But post count has dropped quite a lot since those Dec 1992 runs.

I think you’re right but some of us are checked out, well, I am. I’m ready for golf. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think we are going to have a great idea on how this will unfold until probably Tuesday evening. With multiple rounds of convection these next few days within the Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley that is surely going to greatly impact many of the key features, including the primary. With the degree of convection which seems likely along the warm front these next few days (including today) this may help shunt the warm front south a bit. It is also possible the primary low ends up being farther south and not thrown into Michigan like some guidance is showing. I think the GFS may be too far north partly because it seems to be somewhat too aggressive with how far north into the mid country the warm front lifts and ultimately it is pegging a northerly displaced MCS and subsequently, farther north with the primary. 

Agree, call me a weenie but it's still a long ways away, hence me not throwing in the towel yet

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah you’re right, it’s NW slopes of the Dacks into Canada.

That SFC track is Adirondacks all the way too.  Though low level jet on front side would be enough to get NH/ME foothills/Mtns.

Thats a classic track for a split here in N.VT between mid-level synoptic lift west and low level WCB lifting east.  Occluded mess.

Need to keep the primary weaker and south. But that is the opposite of the current trend. Even for NNE I think keep the upper air a little toned down is what you want…not as much as SNE needs it but there’s a happy medium. But some of these GFS runs are just wrapping this thing up so much that there’s really no chance to consolidate the WAA/CCB together. 
 

Hopefully things trend back a little but I’m not optimistic about that. 

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2 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Agree, call me a weenie but it's still a long ways away, hence me not throwing in the towel yet

It's just all about expectations. Of course though since everyone loves to just stroll right to the snowfall maps expectations are already lost but if you live in northern New England and/or have elevation well, climatologically you stand the best chance for some significant snowfall accumulations. 

We know this is going to be an anomalous evolution for this time of year and with that we should anticipate or expect there will be at least some sort of anomalous outcome. But what does that mean, well that's what we figure out over these next few days. I mean me in Springfield, it would be foolish to expect or anticipate 12'' of snow, but is it plausible to think I have a shot for say 2-4'' or 4-6'', absolutely and that's the anomalous aspect. 

I think mostly everyone will see frozen precipitation (except maybe immediate coastal Plain) but it's just a matter of how impactful.

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8 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Getting close to a non-event in my region, how farther north is this thing going? Geez

 

For what it's worth northern worcester hills still have a small shot, me and ineedsnow are probably going to track this until it's gotime, above comment nonwithstanding :lol:

N ORH county is def still in the game for big snow, but another tick and it’s over there too (outside of maybe advisory type snows on the WAA front end). 
 

Really need to stop this trend of a massive bombing primary in N Michigan/Lake Huron. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

N ORH county is def still in the game for big snow, but another tick and it’s over there too (outside of maybe advisory type snows on the WAA front end). 
 

Really need to stop this trend of a massive bombing primary in N Michigan/Lake Huron. 

Agreed, its already almost left the station, another day of this northern movement and she's gone, unless it turns around and trends south

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Even in mid-winter the appetite would be fairly small but in early April after a terrible winter, nobody will stay and track a storm that doesn’t give good snow within 50-75 miles. We are basically one more 00z run bump north from 80-90% of the forum checking out…myself included. 

Na I get it..if it’s not historic or you’re not looking for a few more deep powder days to scratch the itch til next season, it’s nothing more than a stat padder that’s melted 6 hours after it falls. I’m just hoping for a memorable weekend to finish the powder days for the year.


.
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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's just all about expectations. Of course though since everyone loves to just stroll right to the snowfall maps expectations are already lost but if you live in northern New England and/or have elevation well, climatologically you stand the best chance for some significant snowfall accumulations. 

We know this is going to be an anomalous evolution for this time of year and with that we should anticipate or expect there will be at least some sort of anomalous outcome. But what does that mean, well that's what we figure out over these next few days. I mean me in Springfield, it would be foolish to expect or anticipate 12'' of snow, but is it plausible to think I have a shot for say 2-4'' or 4-6'', absolutely and that's the anomalous aspect. 

I think mostly everyone will see frozen precipitation (except maybe immediate coastal Plain) but it's just a matter of how impactful.

Agreed, still think NNE gets slammed, Massachusetts will likely be a contested region until gotime, no formal training just someone who lives here

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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think we are going to have a great idea on how this will unfold until probably Tuesday evening. With multiple rounds of convection these next few days within the Missouri Valley/Ohio Valley that is surely going to greatly impact many of the key features, including the primary. With the degree of convection which seems likely along the warm front these next few days (including today) this may help shunt the warm front south a bit. It is also possible the primary low ends up being farther south and not thrown into Michigan like some guidance is showing. I think the GFS may be too far north partly because it seems to be somewhat too aggressive with how far north into the mid country the warm front lifts and ultimately it is pegging a northerly displaced MCS and subsequently, farther north with the primary. 

I think we have a stupendous idea of how it will evolve right now.

 

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Watching this closely.  Waiting for that white unicorn for 6 years now. The one day I have a snow day and my kids don’t.  My district tucked up in the nw corner of mass has had zero snow days this school year.  My kids have had a few but they are down in the valley. 

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24 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Yeah, it's not over till it's over but it's not a good look for my area if trends continue 

Right, the trend north/closer has been for several runs which is generally a bad sign.  Tomorrow is kind of the make or break day.

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5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

See if we can reserve trends a bit tonight. I’ll stay interested through 12z tomorrow.  

Funny, I was just telling someone that if anything still shows 12Z Tuesday I'll be slightly interested... although I'm really totally over anything winter at this point 

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