April 2024

[Stormlover74]

Nam is still bone dry for tomorrow. Other models have around a tenth of an inch but shouldn't be a big deal

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam is still bone dry for tomorrow. Other models have around a tenth of an inch but shouldn't be a big deal

Seems like the firehose has turned off for awhile now

[SACRUS]

 

33 overnight and now to 61.  More mid/upper 60s.   Some clouds and showers overnight and into tomorrow as trough moves in,   48 hour chill down Wed PM - Fri Pm.   Last of the freeze inland  30s metro sites.  Similar warm up to the 4/14 - 4/16 coming 4/27 - 4/29.  Pending on clouds more 70s  this coming  Sat ,  70s to near 80s in the warm spots Sunday and 850s push >16c Sun into next Mon and the chance for the first 90s. Onshore / clouds to close the month 30th and open next.  Overall drier regime continues. Looks a bit back and forth as we go into the first week of next month.

 

https://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/img/vis_nj_anim.gif  

 

[IrishRob17]

After a low of 30 up to 61 now, another beautiful day.

[SACRUS]

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1996)
NYC: 86 (2007)
LGA: 85 (2007)
JFK: 87 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1933)
NYC: 29 (1872)
LGA: 36 1986)
JFK: 34 (1986)


Historical:

 

1885 - The city of Denver, CO, was in the midst of a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 24 hours, and at Idaho Springs CO produced 32 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1910 - The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, CA, hit 100 degrees to establish an April record for the city. (The Weather Channel)

 

1948: A three block long section was devastated at the edge of Ionia, Iowa in Chickasaw County by an estimated F4 tornado. Six homes and a church were leveled, and nine other homes were severely damaged. Two deaths occurred in the collapse of the Huffman Implement Store. Overall, the tornado killed five people, injured 25, and caused $250,000 in damages. An F2 tornado touched down initially 5 miles northeast of Rochester. Barns, silos, windmills, and machinery were destroyed on four farms as this tornado tracked north.

 

1961: Severe weather struck the south suburbs of Chicago, IL. Joliet, IL reported an inch of hail with some hailstones the size of golf balls. Heavy rain from these storms also resulted in some flooding. A tornado struck the town of Peotone resulting in damage to nearly every building with damage also reported in Lorenzo and Wilton Center, IL. Estimated damage was $9 million with about 30,000 structures affected. 

 

1983 - A mini-blizzard produced sixteen inches of snow at Laramie, WY, including a foot of snow in just eight hours during the night. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in the Atlantic Coast Region produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 67 mph at Anderson SC. The high winds destroyed two planes at the airport, and the large hail damaged fifty other planes, and severely damaged twenty-three greenhouses. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - An intense winter-like storm brought thunderstorms to southern California, and produced snow in some of the higher elevations. Nine girls at Tustin CA were injured when lightning struck the tree under which their softball team had taken shelter from the rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Salina, KS, was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 105 degrees. The high of 105 degrees established an April record for the state of Kansas. A total of eighteen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in West Texas and western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Lake McKenzie TX and at Garden City TX, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Gage OK. Thunderstorms drenched southeast Minnesota with heavy rain, with 6.6 inches reported northwest of Browndale. High temperatures were mostly in the 80s across the central U.S. The morning low of 67 degrees at Fargo ND and afternoon high of 91 degrees were both records for the date. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1999: On Friday, April 23, 1999, a horrific hailstorm moved southeast from Pennsylvania across Garrett County, Maryland and into the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia. It had weakened some as it crossed Garrett County and the Allegany Front, but as it passed east of Keyser, West Virginia, hail began to increase in size once again. By the time it reached Capon Bridge in eastern Hampshire County, West Virginia, the size of the hail had grown from golf balls to baseballs. As it moved into Frederick County, VA, the hail storm continued to grow dropping golf ball size hail in a swath now reaching from the north of Winchester, south to Stephen City (about 10 miles). Hailstones grew to the size of Grapefruit (4 inches in diameter) east of Winchester. The storm continued east through Clarke County, southern Loudoun, and northern Fauquier doing considerable damage to Middleburg, then across Fairfax County hitting Centreville, Chantilly, Fairfax, Burke, Springfield, and Lorton with golf ball size to baseball size hail. It crossed the Potomac River and weakened slightly. It moved across northern Charles, clipped southern Prince Georges and then into Calvert County with 1 inch to 1.5-inch diameter hail and onto the Chesapeake Bay continuing southeast to the ocean. The damage left behind was incredible. In Northern Virginia alone, it amounted to over $50 million in losses to public and private properties. Some communities saw a third of the homes with siding and roof damage. Some required total replacement. Windows were broken, cars dented, and windshields smashed. Piles of shredded plant debris were left on the ground in the storm path. In about 6 hours of time, this one thunderstorm, moving at about 50 mph, did $75 million in damage. There have been other severe hail storms to hit this area before, but none to cause this much damage to property.

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.

 

Bring it! 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Near record late April temperature drop from Wednesday into Thursday for a little over 12 hours. Highs Wednesday afternoon in the mid 60s to around 70°. Then temperatures falling as much as 35° into the 30s by Thursday morning. The usual colder spots could see a freeze or even hard freeze the further north and west you go into the interior Northeast.
 

I have a question that seems like it should have a simple answer but it probably doesn't.

Why is it that it's still relatively easy to get into the upper 30s and sometimes even mid 30s in mid to late April and once in awhile even early May, but our last freezing temperatures are still occurring in late March now? Talking about the airports and close in suburbs like western Long Island.  Why haven't we seen any freezing temperatures happen after 4/15 with all these late season cold outbreaks we've had since 2020?  When was the last time one of the city airports or the Park had a low of freezing or below after 4/15? After 4/20?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.

 

Chris is this it for the cold weather or will it come back again after this warmup?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

it's the old brush from last fall that's a threat and the weeds and other ground cover have not come up yet so there's alot of fuel ready to go...which is why you see most fire statements in April/May vs June or July

why doesn't someone get rid of this stuff?

it's an eyesore anyway

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We can probably begin to plant the annuals after this weekend since the next couple of days will probably be the last freeze for the colder spots around the metro area until next fall.

the problem with late season freezes and frosts is also about perennials that bloom early because of unseasonal warm weather that happened earlier and then they get damaged by the out of season freezes and frosts

 

[SACRUS]

 

Just about or less than an inch of rain in the last 3 weeks back to 4/4 for a large part of the region.

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why doesn't someone get rid of this stuff?

it's an eyesore anyway

 

fires get rid of that stuff 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

fires get rid of that stuff 

Good point!  Burn on!

I actually don't mind fires unless they burn down someone's house or hurt someone.  Brush fires are natural and should occur.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Just about or less than an inch of rain in the last 3 weeks back to 4/4 for a large part of the region.

Good riddance to the rain-- it should only rain every 10 days

[gravitylover]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why doesn't someone get rid of this stuff?

it's an eyesore anyway

 

Grab a rake and some long handled loppers and have at it 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the problem with late season freezes and frosts is also about perennials that bloom early because of unseasonal warm weather that happened earlier and then they get damaged by the out of season freezes and frosts

 

One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. 
 

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit.

 

 

 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Good riddance to the rain-- it should only rain every 10 days

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

The lack of an extreme drought since 2002 has been the only reason we haven’t made it to 110°+ yet.  Places like Olympia, Washington did it back in 2021 with the extreme drought out West. Notice that they beat their previous record high by 6°. That would be something like 114° at Newark and surrounding locations if we ever beat the 2010-2011 all-time highs by a similar margin. 2010-2011 before the August 2011 deluge was just a run of the mill dry pattern and we still put up such big numbers. 

 

Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	110	0
2	2009	104	0
-	1981	104	0
4	1994	102	0
5	2006	101	0
6	2023	100	2
-	1998	100	0
-	1978	100	0
-	1961	100	0
-	1960	100	0
-	1956	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	108	0
2	2001	105	0
-	1993	105	0
-	1966	105	0
-	1953	105	0
-	1949	105	0

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	107
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	106
NY	MOLLOY CERCOM	COOP	105

[Brian5671]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

Will be tough given the warm Atlantic SST's and likely tropical systems affecting the eastern states-would need a heat dome with west winds...I don't see that personally.

[winterwx21]

On 4/22/2024 at 3:42 PM, nycwinter said:

nws forecast as of this morning does not call for 70 tomorrow...

It hit 72 here today. I knew today would overperform for my area. 

[snowman19]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Will be tough given the warm Atlantic SST's and likely tropical systems affecting the eastern states-would need a heat dome with west winds...I don't see that personally.

I doubt it too but stranger things have happened. I’m actually rooting for it. A major drought would not bother me in the least right now

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a warm day, though there will be a risk of a shower or even thundershower. Overall, generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through most of the week.

It will likely turn noticeablywarmer as April concludes with May starting with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -14.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.022 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal).

 

[nycwinter]

what was the high for the city today?

[uofmiami]

20 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what was the high for the city today?

65

[snowman19]

49 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what was the high for the city today?

Let me guess…you were disappointed that you couldn’t be in a winter parka, long john’s, a scarf, a wool hat, mittens and galoshes? 

[vegan_edible]

weather gets absolutely perfect, california-esque in fact 

vegan_edible gets covid

you can't make this stuff up

 

you all better be outside enjoying it for me!

[lee59]

61 my high. Now down to 49 with the chilly sea breeze.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

weather gets absolutely perfect, california-esque in fact 

vegan_edible gets covid

you can't make this stuff up

 

you all better be outside enjoying it for me!

Still making the rounds-at least you don't have to isolate for 5 days anymore....feel better!

[psv88]

Was a beautiful 71 here in Asheville, NC. Spectacular city with incredible views and outstanding food. Highly recommended to all. 
 

tomorrow we drive the blue ridge up to Roanoke. Weather looks to cooperate 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lack of an extreme drought since 2002 has been the only reason we haven’t made it to 110°+ yet.  Places like Olympia, Washington did it back in 2021 with the extreme drought out West. Notice that they beat their previous record high by 6°. That would be something like 114° at Newark and surrounding locations if we ever beat the 2010-2011 all-time highs by a similar margin. 2010-2011 before the August 2011 deluge was just a run of the mill dry pattern and we still put up such big numbers. 

 

Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	110	0
2	2009	104	0
-	1981	104	0
4	1994	102	0
5	2006	101	0
6	2023	100	2
-	1998	100	0
-	1978	100	0
-	1961	100	0
-	1960	100	0
-	1956	100	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	108	0
2	2001	105	0
-	1993	105	0
-	1966	105	0
-	1953	105	0
-	1949	105	0

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	107
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	106
NY	MOLLOY CERCOM	COOP	105

Wouldn't it be funny if it was so hot that JFK even hit 100 with  a sea breeze?

If Newark got to 114 JFK would definitely hit 100 even on a southerly breeze.