LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Models are backing off on the cold! Let’s keep this trend going! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!! as long as it's sunny it won't really matter if it's cold for a few hours during the early morning hours... I am SO happy it's going to be sunny next week either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Nice improvements today on the 12z Euro. While there will still be a near record polar vortex near James Bay next week, the cold goes more to the east rather than the south. So the lowest NYC may get next week is the 40s rather than the 30s which were shown yesterday. But we’ll continue to watch further runs since these forecasts involving a PV nearby in Canada can jump around a lot from run to run. This is more something we see in the winter rather than in late April. New run Old run why are we getting a polar vortex this late in April anyway? Isn't the -NAO gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: as long as it's sunny it won't really matter if it's cold for a few hours during the early morning hours... I am SO happy it's going to be sunny next week either way. “Cold” in mid-late April doesn’t have the same meaning it does in March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: “Cold” in mid-late April doesn’t have the same meaning it does in March Yup, the closest comparison would be to Florida cold.... it can be chilly for a few hours just before and just after sunrise, but as soon as the sun comes up in the sky, it feels nice. It's hard to have a high under 60 if it's going to be sunny this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Tomorrow will see temperatures briefly return to near seasonable levels. However, another cold front will likely cross the region with a return to cooler conditions to conclude the weekend. Overall, generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through most of next week. However, the cold won't be exceptional. It could turn warmer as April concludes with May starting with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was +12.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was not available today. On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.520 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.553 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ruang/news/239570/Ruang-volcano-Sulawesi-Sangihe-Islands-Indonesia-eruption-plume-drifts-over-1000-km-currently-over-b.html "GEMS measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) from the eruption on April 18th show notable data gaps in areas with high SO₂ column amounts, likely due to clouds or ash. A very preliminary estimate suggests a total sulfur dioxide mass of approximately 0.3 teragrams (Tg)." A preliminary estimate of the sulfur release suggests about 0.3 Tg's, which is about spot on for a VEI 4. Shouldn't be a major climate player unless these figures are way off. El Chichon did ~7 Tg's as lower end VEI 5, Pinatubo was more than double that. We know HTHH was huge but atypical with most of the sulfur ending up in the ocean, initial estimates put it about 0.4 Tg but I've seen it revised as high as 1-2 Tg's. What makes this Ruang eruption interesting is actually in how fast/intense the main blast was, which was only over a period of a couple hours. The other precursor eruptions were much smaller so the main volume of the event was in the big boom. Just my thoughts / speculation at this point. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 raindrops in new brunzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said: https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ruang/news/239570/Ruang-volcano-Sulawesi-Sangihe-Islands-Indonesia-eruption-plume-drifts-over-1000-km-currently-over-b.html "GEMS measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) from the eruption on April 18th show notable data gaps in areas with high SO₂ column amounts, likely due to clouds or ash. A very preliminary estimate suggests a total sulfur dioxide mass of approximately 0.3 teragrams (Tg)." A preliminary estimate of the sulfur release suggests about 0.3 Tg's, which is about spot on for a VEI 4. Shouldn't be a major climate player unless these figures are way off. El Chichon did ~7 Tg's as lower end VEI 5, Pinatubo was more than double that. We know HTHH was huge but atypical with most of the sulfur ending up in the ocean, initial estimates put it about 0.4 Tg but I've seen it revised as high as 1-2 Tg's. What makes this Ruang eruption interesting is actually in how fast/intense the main blast was, which was only over a period of a couple hours. The other precursor eruptions were much smaller so the main volume of the event was in the big boom. Just my thoughts / speculation at this point. Hey quick question, how do I delete all my attachments lol. I wanted to post some pictures I took of the sun (there's a lot of sunspots visible right now), but I can't post any because I have a limit of 1.95 MB and the file I want to post is between 4-5 MB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hey quick question, how do I delete all my attachments lol. I wanted to post some pictures I took of the sun (there's a lot of sunspots visible right now), but I can't post any because I have a limit of 1.95 MB and the file I want to post is between 4-5 MB. Top right of window, click your username and my attachments. Then you can select which to delete. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Just now, uofmiami said: Top right of window, click your username and my attachments. Then you can select which to delete. Thanks, I deleted all of them, but there is still a file size limit of 1.95 MB so I just uploaded one of the smaller ones. The file size limit of 1.95 MB is per file and also per post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 4 hours ago, nycwinter said: another glorious mid april today... nice to wear the winter coat a second day in a row.. I'm loving it Nice and refreshing 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: as long as it's sunny it won't really matter if it's cold for a few hours during the early morning hours... I am SO happy it's going to be sunny next week either way. Low 60s is mighty nice... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 20 Author Share Posted April 20 15 hours ago, LibertyBell said: why are we getting a polar vortex this late in April anyway? Isn't the -NAO gone? No, the Greenland block is still going strong plus we have a -EPO. That MJO 8 back in late March reset the whole pattern to more blocking with a stronger 50/50 low. This pattern maintains a backdoor nearby with only brief warm ups between plenty of onshore flow, clouds, and showers. Canada is starting to get cold after so much record winter warmth. Figures the relaxation from MJO 4-7 would wait until the spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Im impressed this month is still running AN What a miserable April for long stretches. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 51 had light rain move through. Should slowly dry out with some breaks of sun later today and warmer with a S/SW flow. mid- upper 60s. Some sun tomorrow before front moves through cooler near 60. Manly dry week outside shower/light rain Wed (4/24) and running near to below normal. Cooler Wed - Fri (4/26). Warmer by next weekend and next shot at 70s and perhaps 80s after a chilly few days on Sun (4/28) - the close of the month. Have to watch cut off / onshore flow but looks like another 3 day warmup. Beyond there more back and forth to open next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Records: Highs: EWR: 91 (1941) NYC: 90 (1927) LGA: 85 (2005) JFK: 80 (2005) Lows: EWR: 34 (1953) NYC: 24 (1897) LGA: 35 (1953) JFK: 36 (2018) Historical: 1901 - A spring storm produced unusally heavy snow in northeast Ohio. Warren received 35.5 inches in thirty-six hours, and 28 inches fell at Green Hill. Akron OH established April records of 15.6 inches in 24 hours, and 26.6 inches for the month. Pittsburgh PA established April records of 12.7 inches in 24 hours, and 13.5 inches for the month. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1912: A tornado moved north-northeast from 5 miles southeast of Rush Center, KS across the east half of Bison, KS. Farms were wiped out near Rush Center. The loss at Bison was $70,000 as half of the town, about 50 homes, were damaged or destroyed. There were 15 injuries in town. A dozen farms were nearly wiped out. Debris from the farmhouses was carried for 8 miles. A senior man who made light of the storm was killed with his granddaughter on a farm 2 miles southwest of Bison. 1920 - Tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama killed 219 persons. (David Ludlum) 1920: Tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama killed 219 persons. Six tornadoes of F4 intensity were reported. Aberdeen, Mississippi was hard hit by an F4 tornado that killed 22 people. This same tornado killed 20 in Marion County, Alabama. Nine people in one family died in Winston County, Alabama. 1952 - The tankers Esso Suez and Esso Greensboro crashed in a thick fog off the coast of Morgan City LA. Only five of the Greensboro's crew survived after the ship bursts into flame. (David Ludlum) 1984: A temperature of 106 degrees at Del Rio, Texas set a new record high for April. 1987 - Fifty-two cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. The high of 92 degrees at Memphis TN was a record for April, and the high of 94 at Little Rock AR equalled their April record. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A storm in the western U.S. brought heavy rain to parts of California. Mount Wilson was soaked with 4.15 inches of rain in 24 hours. The heavy rain caused some flooding and mudslides in the Los Angeles area, and a chain reaction collision of vehicles along the Pomona Freeway which resulted in 26 injuries. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hot weather spread from the southwestern U.S. into the Great Plains Region. Twenty-three cities reported new record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 104 degrees at Tucson AZ was an April record, and highs of 87 at Provo UT, 90 at Pueblo CO, and 85 at Salt Lake City UT, equalled April records. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - A fast moving Pacific storm produced heavy snow in the central mountains and the Upper Arkansas Valley of Colorado, with a foot of snow reported at Leadville. Thunderstorms in the south central U.S. produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Tulsa OK, and heavy rain which caused flooding of Cat Claw Creek in the Abilene TX area. Lightning struck the building housing a fish farm in Scott AR killing 10,000 pounds of fish. Many of the fish died from the heat of the fire. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004: A strong F3 tornado moved across the town of Utica, near LaSalle-Peru in north-central Illinois. This tornado destroyed several homes, a machinery building, and a tavern. The roof of the tavern collapsed, killing eight people inside; many of these people had come into town from nearby mobile homes, seeking sturdier shelter. The tornado dissipated on a steep bluff on the northeast side of the city. Another tornado developed shortly afterward, crossing I-80 near Ottawa. Several other tornadoes developed across north central and northeast Illinois, affecting areas around Joliet and Kankakee. 2006 - Up to five feet of snow falls in the Dakotas. I-94 and other highways were closed, power was out for thousands and caused at least four deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 1 hour ago, bluewave said: No, the Greenland block is still going strong plus we have a -EPO. That MJO 8 back in late March reset the whole pattern to more blocking with a stronger 50/50 low. This pattern maintains a backdoor nearby with only brief warm ups between plenty of onshore flow, clouds, and showers. Canada is starting to get cold after so much record winter warmth. Figures the relaxation from MJO 4-7 would wait until the spring. We are above normal for the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: We are above normal for the month Hug that stat. Look outside today. It will be the warmest day of the week. Then hug that stat again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 I wonder if we will flip the switch right to hot and humid weather by mid May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 22 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I wonder if we will flip the switch right to hot and humid weather by mid May? Hopefully 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 2 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Im impressed this month is still running AN What a miserable April for long stretches. I wouldn't mind moving the earth 10 million miles closer to the sun, maybe that would burn off these clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 24 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I wonder if we will flip the switch right to hot and humid weather by mid May? Hot and dry is better. The entire Atlantic can evaporate for all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: Hug that stat. Look outside today. It will be the warmest day of the week. Then hug that stat again Mark Twain had a thing or ten to say about statistics lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 14 hours ago, Dark Star said: Low 60s is mighty nice... Low 60s and sunshine and no rain for 30 days straight is perfect. I don't care how much of a drought we get if it doesn't rain the entire summer, I'm fine with it, 70% of the world is covered by oceans, maybe we should start using that water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: We are above normal for the month For NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said: Hopefully That certainly seems to be the theme now. Cool and wet April followed by an abrupt switch to hot and humid weather by mid May. We’ll see if that happens this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 wore my coat out this morning to take walk tomorrow morning will be even chillier ...might have to wear a winter hat and gloves... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Wore shorts and a T-shirt this morning while doing some weed whacking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Very typical late April day. 66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Very typical late April day. 66 Nice to see the sun out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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