Chris78 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: We’ve even tracking discrete threats! We’ve had 2 storm threads made this past week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 11 minutes ago, Ji said: Oh man I remember that. Was it a close call or no chance lol? Pretty sure it was a cutter. Indiana and Ohio got dumped on. For our area it just loaded up a bunch more water weight onto snow-covered roofs. I had a large warehouse in PG County at that time, and the roof sagged a couple of feet. ETA: a big-time severe outbreak in the SE also. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20030222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 39 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: That PD 2 in ‘03 was not forecast to be much if I remember correctly. It way over performed in my area, at least. We ended off school for the week. That was good, because I was pregnant and down with a wicked sinus infection. I was at Massanutten. They got 18 inches. Dale City got like 12-14. It was a THRILL traveling on I 81 in a total whiteout. Good times. That trip was a total story in itself. We got to the motel the night before. We had rain/snow at 500 feet. It started accumulating on the mulch. Then it became nearly all snow and continued into the next day. I got up at 615am and undertook a most excellent jebwalk, WITH MY SHOVEL, along this road, got to dig ppl out, and the snow poured and poured and poured while I blasted tracks on my headphones that reminded me of snow. I enthusiastically shoveled fresh snow where ever people needed help. I was in ultimate heaven to say the least. That northeast wind forced me to walk backwards against the huge aggregates, especially on my way back. Needless to say my friends back at the motel were really concerned. I was gone for hours and hours worshipping snow and vodka cold and relishing the experience! We went skiing, but not I. I was taking notes and blasting ELO and Billy Joel on my headphones and walking around, running around too. Some people were gawking at me and my excited antics. I didnt care! I loved snow and cold and absolutely adored it! The snow was wet at first but then it fell into the upper teens and the snow got drier and the NE wind picked up and things got very fun as snow piled up and visibilities went straight to hell. It was at this time we decided to try and get home. We left early the next morning. The wind was blasting heavy dry snow all over the place and I was grinning ear to ear and trying to shovel more of the snow with my Jebman Shovel lmao. That wind was really blowing the snow around and I was really whooping it up like an overexcited teenager! We got on I 81 and tried so hard to get back but the whiteout was total and I have never been so happy and fulfilled in my entire life! We were going right off the road and I whooped it right up with one of my trademark WOOOOOO-HOOOOOOO's !!!!!!!! It took us a very long long time to get back. In Dale City it was pouring snow too! I got to dig snow at Massanutten then at home and got to dig the fresh snow for all my neighbors! I demonstrated Jebman Standards! I was so happy I thought my snow weenie heart would burst for pure unadulterated JOY! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 55 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: That PD 2 in ‘03 was not forecast to be much if I remember correctly. It way over performed in my area, at least. We ended off school for the week. That was good, because I was pregnant and down with a wicked sinus infection. Yeah it was forecast to be a huge blizzard and it was evident for about a week prior. I was in SC the week before and it was already being discussed on the weather channel. It did have a pretty sharp cutoff in central Virginia though where they got like 6-8 inches of sleet. It was bad storm but not a huge snow event in Charlottesville. The forecast for the northern Shenandoah valley was two feet plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Icon brought back more interaction with the ULL over ne. Produces snow in Southern Va and NC 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Icon brought back more interaction with the ULL over ne. Produces snow in Southern Va and NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Icon ftw? One time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 @Terpeast your solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 the ICON isn't even that different from the GFS at the same lead time, it just retros the block a bit more and allows the TPV in to phase. razor thin margins 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 What does this mean? Euro runs earlier and it’s just ensemble based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Canadian comes closeSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Really nice +PNA getting going here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 wow. switch totally flipped 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow. switch totally flipped Annnnnd here it is. Just in time for the VDay to PD period. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the ICON isn't even that different from the GFS at the same lead time, it just retros the block a bit more and allows the TPV in to phase. razor thin margins 0z Euro looks to have a little closer ULL interaction, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 The longwave pattern we’ve been waiting for is finally showing up on all 3 ensemble systems and temps are quickly cooling down at that point as well. 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1752072118072672337?s=20 #itshappening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 8 hours ago, Ji said: Canadian comes close Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Do you know why it is that every time we need a storm system to not trend north in the 120-180 time frame, it inevitably does. But if we do need it to trend north, it inevitably doesn't? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 12 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Do you know why it is that every time we need a storm system to not trend north in the 120-180 time frame, it inevitably does. But if we do need it to trend north, it inevitably doesn't? That's been happening since I started tracking. Reasons are simple. Storms want to gain latitude. It's their job. Strength of storm is never resolved so as storms look "better" or stronger as lead times shorten, there's like an 88% chance it fights to push north. Without a transient big block or more classic blocked flow, storms will always butt against walls and usually bully them a little. Happens both ways though. A good storm in the mid range that weakens will almost always end up south (or get squashed into dark matter lol). Blocked flow can easily push a storm south in the mid to short range. And that's certainly happened. Congrats short pump was born in that setup lolol Eta: one more thing. Op models appear to have a bias with depth of cold in the mid range. Fronts rarely push as far south as initially modeled and cold moderates more than expected. This is often a result of cold taking longer than expected to bleed east. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Do you know why it is that every time we need a storm system to not trend north in the 120-180 time frame, it inevitably does. But if we do need it to trend north, it inevitably doesn't?Yes. We live too north for southern sliders and too south for miller bs…too west for coastal…too east for cutters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I mentioned a few days ago how that SS wave was juiced and just needed some interaction with the NS vorticity maxima rotating into the CONUS. Timing of these is everything. It’s very hard to get these right for our prospects. You need the stars to align enough to get some impacts and perfectly to get the upper echelon results. I still feel in the margins this misses, but it’ll be tight in the end. I do like seeing the guidance ease its way back into a favorable pattern in February. This is Niño climo, so hopefully it’s a sign of things to come. I certainly haven’t thrown in the towel. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 I want to add that I think this COULD impact part of the subforum in some way. By no means am I writing it off and will follow intently leading into anything down the road. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 What does this mean? Euro runs earlier and it’s just ensemble based?Been told by Tom on our forum it means no more OP euro, it’ll only be the control and ensemble ran. Curious why they’d be doing this? Cost issues? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: Been told by Tom on our forum it means no more OP euro, it’ll only be the control and ensemble ran. Curious why they’d be doing this? Cost issues? . Wow, seems like that would be a big step backwards in resolution for short-term (1 - 5 days) forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Wow, seems like that would be a big step backwards in resolution for short-term (1 - 5 days) forecasting.I’d imagine the eps will be upgraded though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: Been told by Tom on our forum it means no more OP euro, it’ll only be the control and ensemble ran. Curious why they’d be doing this? Cost issues? . Yeah, the control will be the op and come out with the ensembles at 2pm next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’d imagine the eps will be upgraded though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Yeah, the control will be the op and come out with the ensembles at 2pm next winter I’d assume both the control and ensemble will have upgrades to them? Not sure what HRES meant in the tweet. Hires? Idk . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Yeah, the control will be the op and come out with the ensembles at 2pm next winter I’d assume both the control and ensemble will have upgrades to them? Not sure what HRES meant in the tweet. Hires? Idk . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: That's been happening since I started tracking. Reasons are simple. Storms want to gain latitude. It's their job. Strength of storm is never resolved so as storms look "better" or stronger as lead times shorten, there's like an 88% chance it fights to push north. Without a transient big block or more classic blocked flow, storms will always butt against walls and usually bully them a little. Happens both ways though. A good storm in the mid range that weakens will almost always end up south (or get squashed into dark matter lol). Blocked flow can easily push a storm south in the mid to short range. And that's certainly happened. Congrats short pump was born in that setup lolol Eta: one more thing. Op models appear to have a bias with depth of cold in the mid range. Fronts rarely push as far south as initially modeled and cold moderates more than expected. This is often a result of cold taking longer than expected to bleed east. Right.. I agree with all of this. So at what point does that Closed Upper level low track just far north enough to paste us with heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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