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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

IMO, Icon, GFS, and GGEM are all solutions that have been in the envelope of the storm for the past 48 hours. Differences are in shortwave details. I don’t see any of them as “moving toward the euro” , at least in isolation. 

Do we have a breakout of snow by model?  

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

IMO, Icon, GFS, and GGEM are all solutions that have been in the envelope of the storm for the past 48 hours. Differences are in shortwave details. I don’t see any of them as “moving toward the euro” , at least in isolation. 

I think this is a really solid post. These solutions all bring some type of low pressure up the coast. Just a matter of ironing out the finite details. Just wish for once we could have a no doubt cold smoke blue bomb get us. Been way too long. Could still def happen but seems like there’s a lot of variables that can easily derail those hopes. 

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14 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I'm really not surprised, trend the last 4 runs. 12z is the sore thumb that sticks out sadly. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh96_trend.gif

We lost that vorticity coming through the 4 corners region around 78-84 from the previous runs. That what pulled that trough down and without it we just flattened out.

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2 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

Do we have a breakout of snow by model?  

10:1 ratios, for tuesday's system:

ICON: 4-6 for the DC/Balt metros, with less to the NW and SW (narrow stripe)

GFS: a less compelling stripe with 2-4 centered around the DC metro, less to NW and SW

CMC: like the ICON on steroids, with a nice 6-10" for the broad swathe of the area.

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Now we just need the Euro to nudge NW even just a little bit

More than that, we need it to synoptically just look more like the other 12z suite models. Interested to see if the UK holds the big storm idea. 

Also gonna be watching TPV positioning and orientation like a hawk. 

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