Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

[Allsnow]

33 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Did I seriously read a post about initialization errors today? 

No, but these maps are always changing 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, cardinalland said:

(national) blend of models i believe

Correct.  Here it is if interested.  Also, the link below has a very nice summary of what the model consists of, especially with regard to the various model inputs which get "blended" in the BOM (they're not all equal).  

https://luckgrib.com/models/nbm_conus/

[Allsnow]

Euro 18z stronger with confluence and weaker…

 

Need to see the eps at 8pm to get a idea on where it goes past hr 90 

[wdrag]

12 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Correct.  Here it is if interested.  Also, the link below has a very nice summary of what the model consists of, especially with regard to the various model inputs which get "blended" in the BOM (they're not all equal).  

https://luckgrib.com/models/nbm_conus/

well done on the link explaining.  Its a good start and should be paid attention to. Available via Pivatol Wx and probably other sources.

[kdennis78]

Are there any indication on the amount of rain we are getting in one week? Is it going to be December 10 or 17 or 28 all over again?

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, kdennis78 said:

Are there any indication on the amount of rain we are getting in one week? Is it going to be December 10 or 17 or 28 all over again?

Hard to say. Models are waffling on the strength of both systems. A minimum of 1" seems likely but could certainly be quite a bit more

[donsutherland1]

Latest snowfall outlook with EPS ensemble members and the NBE for NYC:

The forecast pattern is an AO-/NAO-/PNA- one. Since 1950, there were 26 days during January 1-15 that saw measurable snowfall. 50% saw less than 1" while 50% saw 1" or more (daily snowfall not storm total snowfall).  Nearly one-third (31%) saw 2" or more while 8% saw 4" or more (both cases were 6.3" and 6.4" respectively). However, there was a single case that saw the low temperature remain at or above 30° (33° low). That case had just 0.1". This data provides a rough picture of what may lie ahead keeping in mind the importance of details such as the soundings during the storm, etc. This will very likely be a relatively low ratio snowfall for the NYC area.

For now, based on the above data, there remains a realistic chance that NYC could pick up an inch or more of snow (whether 1" or more falls on one day  to break the record 688-day streak without such snowfall remains to be seen). It remains unlikely that NYC will pick up 6" or more snowfall, which would also fit historic experience for January 1-10 following cases where the AO reached +3..000 or above during December 15-25.

[Franklin0529]

Eps?? 

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro 18z stronger with confluence and weaker…

 

Need to see the eps at 8pm to get a idea on where it goes past hr 90 

 

[Will - Rutgers]

41 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

No, but these maps are always changing 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

Little south an colder?? 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Little south an colder?? 

Yes. 
 

but weaker, generally a 3-6 snowfall across the metro 

[Franklin0529]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. 
 

but weaker, generally a 3-6 snowfall across the metro 

Hopefully don't get shredded more

[psv88]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. 
 

but weaker, generally a 3-6 snowfall across the metro 

But initialization looks off?

[the_other_guy]

27 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Babka!

[HeadInTheClouds]

Not to spoil the fun but it's babka. 

Quote

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes. 
 

but weaker, generally a 3-6 snowfall across the metro 

Probably a win if it gets more people in the game and is a plausible outcome. Take it and set the table for later in the month / Feb, right?

We’ll see where things go overnight and tomorrow. 

[psv88]

26 now, 4 degrees colder than forecast for this time, bodes well for this weekend I think…

[WestBabylonWeather]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

26 now, 4 degrees colder than forecast for this time, bodes well for this weekend I think…

27 imby. Winter. 

[Allsnow]

EPS idv are really nice with a plowable event for the metro on the majority 

[vegan_edible]

Just now, Allsnow said:

EPS idv are really nice with a plowable event for the metro on the majority 

you got the maps my guy?

[jm1220]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

26 now, 4 degrees colder than forecast for this time, bodes well for this weekend I think…

If we have easterly winds off the water it’ll warm right up to above where snow can stick if not rain. It’s really about the track of the storm obviously and whether we can hold onto offshore winds. And yes-if it does end up more suppressed there’s the risk the storm is just too weak and it’s too warm anyway. We have a airmass that can work but not ideal. Suppressed would happen with strong confluence or a weakening wave coming east. There’s a possibility we can do okay especially where we are but it’ll take a lot to go right. 

[NittanyWx]

First datapoint where I'm looking at the western system is with the 0z tonight.  Mainly looking for changes inside 48 hr with respect the speed of the vortmax cutting off, depth of it as it digs in California and beyond that beginning to take a bit of a cursory look at the Aleutian low and any potential interaction that has with rising (or falling) heights out west for Saturday.  

 

Also looking at jet streak out of the gulf and whether there are any changes on that front as well.

 

As an aside, seeing a lot of comments on 'model shows X snow' and a clown map. I think we can do better than rip and run in this forum.  Doesn't take much effort to add 'but temps and dews above/below freezing for location y, so it may be overstated in this area.

 

Look at the soundings, let's do the weather right. 

 

 

[NittanyWx]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS idv are really nice with a plowable event for the metro on the majority 

I mean that's just not true for the island on that run as @jm1220rightly points out.  

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I mean that's just not true for the island on that run as @jm1220rightly points out.  

The island will have issues in a snowstorm with temps in the teens 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, Allsnow said:

The island will have issues in a snowstorm with temps in the teens 

I dunno about that. Many storms in the past two decades snow throughout. 

[Allsnow]

Eps control run in 4-7 for Long Island 

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The island will have issues in a snowstorm with temps in the teens 

Uh what? It can snow plenty here just like anyplace else when the right conditions are there. But as @NittanyWx is saying there's a lot more to this than what a snow map is saying. Not discounting the possibility but the overall setup is what matters here. And even where it is all snow especially near the coast it'll likely be less than 10-1 ratio the map has.

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I mean that's just not true for the island on that run as @jm1220rightly points out.  

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

But initialization looks off?

Well played sir