January 2024

[North and West]

Almost 15 inches of rain here since 12/1

we need the rain


.

[MANDA]

Total rainfall here with this last event was 1.37".  Trace of snow yesterday morning.

Majority of this rain fell with the temperatures between 33 and 35 degrees !  Frustrating to say the least.

I wasn't expecting much, maybe a half inch on colder surfaces but didn't even get that.

[SACRUS]

 

39 and clouds.  1.15 from the latest round of rain. Drying out the next 5 - 7  days but loads ofgrey / clouds till Thu.  Perhaps a sunny weekend comingup.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (2002)
NYC: 69 (2002)
LGA: 68 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1970)
NYC: 0 (1873)
LGA: 2 (1977)


Historical:

 

1780 - On the coldest morning of a severe winter the mercury dipped to 16 degrees below zero at New York City, and reached 20 degrees below zero at Hartford CT. New York Harbor was frozen for five weeks, allowing a heavy cannon to be taken across the ice to fortify the British on Staten Island. (The Weather Channel)

1921 - A small but intense windstorm resulted in the "Great Olympic Blowdown" in the Pacific Northwest. Hurricane force winds, funneled along the mountains, downed vast expanses of Douglas fir trees, and the storm destroyed eight billion board feet of timber. Winds at North Head WA gusted to 113 mph. (David Ludlum)

 

1947: On this date through the 30th, a fierce winter storm buried southern Wisconsin under two feet of snow. Strong northeasterly winds piled drifts up to 10 feet high in the Milwaukee area, shutting down the city for two days. 

1983 - A series of Pacific coast storms finally came to an end. The storms, attributed in part to the ocean current, "El Nino," produced ocean swells 15 to 20 feet high which ravaged the beaches of southern California. Much of the damage was to homes of movies stars in the exclusive Malibu Colony. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A strong storm moving out of the Central Rockies spread snow across the north central states, with up to eight inches of snow in Wisconsin, and produced wind gusts to 64 mph at Goodland KS. A thunderstorm produced three inches of snow in forty-five minutes at Owing Mills MD. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Rain and snow were primarily confined to the northwestern U.S. An afternoon reading of 34 degrees at International Falls MN was a record high for the date. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air continued to pour into Alaska. At McGrath, temperature dipped to 63 degrees below zero. Strong winds blowing through the Alaska Range between Fairbanks and Anchorage produced a wind chill reading of 120 degrees below zero at Cantwell. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Severe thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. spawned a tornado which destroyed three mobile homes near Blythe GA injuring six persons. A fast moving cold front produced high winds in the western U.S. Winds along the coast of Oregon gusted to 65 mph at Portland, and high winds generated 22 to 26 foot seas which battered the coast. Winds near Reno NV gusted to 78 mph. High winds also buffeted the Central High Plains, with gusts to 94 mph reported at La Mesa CO. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002 - A major three-day winter storm blasted parts of Kansas and Missouri. A catastrophic ice storm occurred south of the snow area, with two inches of ice and snow accumulating in the Kansas City, Missouri area. Thousands of trees were felled by the storm, blocking roads, felling utility lines, and causing fires. Two "Bicentennial Trees," estimated at being over 200 years old, were badly damaged from this storm. After the 31st, 325,000 people were reported without power in Kansas City alone.

2008 - A sharp cold front moved across Illinois during the day, producing a drastic temperature drop. Temperatures fell 20 to 40 degrees in just a couple of hours, with areas from Springfield, Illinois to St. Louis, Missouri seeing temperatures fall as much as 50 degrees between noon and 6 pm. Temperatures in the mid-60s in central Illinois at midday on the 29th had fallen to near zero by the next morning.

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

39 and clouds.  1.15 from the latest round of rain. Drying out the next 5 - 7  days but loads ofgrey / clouds till Thu.  Perhaps a sunny weekend comingup.

 

 

 

we'll have periods of sun each of the next few days, even if it's just for an hour or two.  The sun came out today for about an hour.

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (2002)
NYC: 69 (2002)
LGA: 68 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1970)
NYC: 0 (1873)
LGA: 2 (1977)


Historical:

 

1780 - On the coldest morning of a severe winter the mercury dipped to 16 degrees below zero at New York City, and reached 20 degrees below zero at Hartford CT. New York Harbor was frozen for five weeks, allowing a heavy cannon to be taken across the ice to fortify the British on Staten Island. (The Weather Channel)

1921 - A small but intense windstorm resulted in the "Great Olympic Blowdown" in the Pacific Northwest. Hurricane force winds, funneled along the mountains, downed vast expanses of Douglas fir trees, and the storm destroyed eight billion board feet of timber. Winds at North Head WA gusted to 113 mph. (David Ludlum)

 

1947: On this date through the 30th, a fierce winter storm buried southern Wisconsin under two feet of snow. Strong northeasterly winds piled drifts up to 10 feet high in the Milwaukee area, shutting down the city for two days. 

1983 - A series of Pacific coast storms finally came to an end. The storms, attributed in part to the ocean current, "El Nino," produced ocean swells 15 to 20 feet high which ravaged the beaches of southern California. Much of the damage was to homes of movies stars in the exclusive Malibu Colony. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A strong storm moving out of the Central Rockies spread snow across the north central states, with up to eight inches of snow in Wisconsin, and produced wind gusts to 64 mph at Goodland KS. A thunderstorm produced three inches of snow in forty-five minutes at Owing Mills MD. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Rain and snow were primarily confined to the northwestern U.S. An afternoon reading of 34 degrees at International Falls MN was a record high for the date. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Bitter cold air continued to pour into Alaska. At McGrath, temperature dipped to 63 degrees below zero. Strong winds blowing through the Alaska Range between Fairbanks and Anchorage produced a wind chill reading of 120 degrees below zero at Cantwell. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Severe thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. spawned a tornado which destroyed three mobile homes near Blythe GA injuring six persons. A fast moving cold front produced high winds in the western U.S. Winds along the coast of Oregon gusted to 65 mph at Portland, and high winds generated 22 to 26 foot seas which battered the coast. Winds near Reno NV gusted to 78 mph. High winds also buffeted the Central High Plains, with gusts to 94 mph reported at La Mesa CO. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002 - A major three-day winter storm blasted parts of Kansas and Missouri. A catastrophic ice storm occurred south of the snow area, with two inches of ice and snow accumulating in the Kansas City, Missouri area. Thousands of trees were felled by the storm, blocking roads, felling utility lines, and causing fires. Two "Bicentennial Trees," estimated at being over 200 years old, were badly damaged from this storm. After the 31st, 325,000 people were reported without power in Kansas City alone.

2008 - A sharp cold front moved across Illinois during the day, producing a drastic temperature drop. Temperatures fell 20 to 40 degrees in just a couple of hours, with areas from Springfield, Illinois to St. Louis, Missouri seeing temperatures fall as much as 50 degrees between noon and 6 pm. Temperatures in the mid-60s in central Illinois at midday on the 29th had fallen to near zero by the next morning.

1780 - On the coldest morning of a severe winter the mercury dipped to 16 degrees below zero at New York City, and reached 20 degrees below zero at Hartford CT. New York Harbor was frozen for five weeks, allowing a heavy cannon to be taken across the ice to fortify the British on Staten Island. (The Weather Channel)

 

Tony any idea how many days NYC had a low below 0 in the 1779-1780 winter? I think a few days ago it was also around -16 on this date that year.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Grey skies nothing but grey skies, wait - could it be some breaks, albeit small, butsome sun in spots.

 

[the_other_guy]

6 hours ago, psv88 said:

Just checked my records, it’s been 6 days since we dropped below freezing in late January. Pretty awful

i was up in Lake Placid and same story there with mid 30s til saturday night

[Cfa]

Sparse flurries at FRG.

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of the region's most recent storm, generally dry weather will return and continue through much or all of the week. Clouds could still persist into the middle of the week.

Based on January's warmth, January will wind up as a solidly warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions will likely continue through the first week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late in the week. There has been some increase in uncertainty concerning the timing of such an evolution.

The overall February outlook is unusually uncertain. The outcome will be a function of often counteracting forces: the decay of the strong El Niño/ENSO region developments, concurrent marine heatwaves, shifting teleconnections, tropical convection, and ongoing background warming, among other factors. The ECMWF weeklies continue to show a shift toward a sustained colder pattern near mid-month, which would be consistent with strong El Niño climatology. However, there are some cautionary notes.

For example, if the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly averages +0.15°C or above, that typically results in a warmer, less snowy outcome for New York City for February cases with ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies of +0.50°C or above than those with a colder average anomaly for Region 1+2 (NYC monthly mean temperature: 35.0° vs. 31.2°; NYC average monthly snowfall: 6.0" vs. 16.4"). February 2016 (4.0") was a recent example of a warmer Region 1+2 case. February 2010 (36.9") was a recent example of a colder Region 1+2 cases. There can be exceptions. One exception was February 1983 that saw 21.5" of snow, largely from a major blizzard, despite an average Region 1+2 anomaly of +1.55°C.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade.

The SOI was -16.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.528 today.

On January 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.521 (RMM). The January 26-adjusted amplitude was 2.423 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.9° (3.2° above normal).

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

This winter has been a lot like the Lions were yesterday...it just fails to produce when it matters.Instead of a lion it has been 

Detroit's low temperature this winter has been -3° so far, but the lions showed Detroit a whole different type of cold yesterday after halftime 

[Rjay]

Deep winter

 

 

[psv88]

At Topgolf in holtsville by @Rjaybeen snowing for an hour

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

At Topgolf in holtsville by @Rjaybeen snowing for an hour

So, they close the LIE on summer evenings for roadwork…for the 35 years of my life.

Fun fact, if you find yourself at Topgolf and they happen to close the mainline road…you will exit the parking lot into an epic traffic jam that you are forced to turn into. There is no other way out. It was like exiting Giants Stadium after a game and I ended up going eastbound to cut south to go west.

 

Enjoy the moodflakes and brewskies! Be glad those cones arent up on the LIE tonight

[NorthShoreWx]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

At Topgolf in holtsville by @Rjaybeen snowing for an hour

Been flurrying here for about 2 hours.  Old man winter sticking his tongue out at us in a drive-by.

[bluewave]

Only the 3rd time on record that northern suburbs like HPN haven’t dropped below 15° by 1-30.

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 30	Missing Count
1	2002-01-30	16	0
2	2024-01-30	15	1
-	1950-01-30	15	61
3	2020-01-30	13	2

 

[wdrag]

So the bogus 00z-06z/30 NAM..possibly too cool tonight NYC but still has a touch of snow...freezing drizzle...ice pellets much of western LI thru NNJ. Shall we ignore it?  EC nothing and already busting on no fragments of icy wintry precip occurring MA, RI e LI NJ and PA. I think it will happen. Spotty 1/2-1" hills of NNJ into ne PA?

GFS and HRRR have it tonight so could be a little slick in spots outside the city later tonight. 

Overall the future doesn't offer anything substantial east of the Apps next two weeks. ATTACHED 10 day NBM snowfall. Click for clarity.

btw I notice some NYC TV doesn't seem to check mPing... here in Wantage we had some graupel-Trace.  

[ForestHillWx]

Evidence of graupel here in chester. 

[MJO812]

HRRR has some ocean effect snow for NYC 

[SACRUS]

 

34 cloudy.  Drier pattern setting in but clouds in the way the next 48 hours then a sunny period - will believe it when we see it but should be a overall quiet next week.  Overall warmer than normal by way of some stronger warmth in the key 2/5 - 2/9 period.  Beyond there looks more active and colder.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR has some ocean effect snow for NYC 

It would be nice to see a little snow, but drizzle is a possibility. 

[psv88]

What the hell. Point and click said partly cloudy this week and now cloudy until Friday!

WHERE IS THE SUN??!??!?

[Allsnow]

 

[Great Snow 1717]

54 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What the hell. Point and click said partly cloudy this week and now cloudy until Friday!

WHERE IS THE SUN??!??!?

apparently you did not get the memo..

[Dark Star]

Decent cold pocket of air in Quebec, the rest of Canada is rather balmy.  Alaska actually below zero in most places...

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What the hell. Point and click said partly cloudy this week and now cloudy until Friday!

WHERE IS THE SUN??!??!?

stupid east wind

I don't think anyone is all that excited to see a few flakes in the sky.

We should either get 6"+ inches of snow or sunny dry weather.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR has some ocean effect snow for NYC 

I wasn't aware that OES was even a possibility this far west.  I thought it only happened on Cape Cod and eastern Long Island?

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

stupid east wind

I don't think anyone is all that excited to see a few flakes in the sky.

We should either get 6"+ inches of snow or sunny dry weather.

Where I live I see flakes every day, just not the kind that fall from the sky

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the 3rd time on record that northern suburbs like HPN haven’t dropped below 15° by 1-30.

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 30	Missing Count
1	2002-01-30	16	0
2	2024-01-30	15	1
-	1950-01-30	15	61
3	2020-01-30	13	2

 

2001-02 is the benchmark "winter" for records like this, but 2001-02 was a lot more bearable; for example, it hit 70 in 2002 in late January.

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2001-02 is the benchmark "winter" for records like this, but 2001-02 was a lot more bearable; for example, it hit 70 in 2002 in late January.

 

We haven’t had a warm and dry winter since 2001-2002. All our warm winters since then have been wet with either snow or rain. Probably the most winter bike rides that I ever got in on the Long Beach boardwalk. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1900-1901	4.22	0
2	2001-2002	4.88	0
3	1958-1959	5.28	0
4	1871-1872	5.41	0
5	1979-1980	5.45	0
6	1955-1956	5.97	0
7	1943-1944	6.13	0
8	1876-1877	6.40	0
9	1988-1989	6.45	0
10	1946-1947	6.59	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0