January 2024

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, I can do without the plain cloudy days and the plain rainy days, if we just had light snow every other day and a light coating on everything, it would be a lot more cheerful around here.

 

Very light snow here.  Have been getting very light snow and flurries since the overnight hours.  Most of it has not been sticking.  34/31

[donsutherland1]

Winter 2023-2024 now ranks as the 4th worst winter in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall through January 31st:

It is also categorized as a "mild" season on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). The AWSSI is based on a more limited data set.

 

[uofmiami]

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

More clouds. How many days since we’ve seen the sun? 10? Has to be a record!

The sun was out on Saturday in Roslyn and was peeking out in Syosset on way to Roslyn.  Don’t know for how long, as I was busy entertaining at my kid’s bday party. 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2023-2024 now ranks as the 4th worst winter in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall through January 31st:

It is also categorized as a "mild" season on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). The AWSSI is based on a more limited data set.

 

You need to include cloudy days in this analysis. This would bump this to the worst winter ever 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

The sun was out on Saturday in Roslyn and was peeking out in Syosset on way to Roslyn.  Don’t know for how long, as I was busy entertaining at my kid’s bday party. 

That’s it for the past 10 days lol

[donsutherland1]

Just now, psv88 said:

You need to include cloudy days in this analysis. This would bump this to the worst winter ever 

Unfortunately, the dataset for cloudy days only goes back to the late 1990s.

[wdrag]

And the winnah... the NAM and GFS (USA modeling) and Canadian as well vs the nil ECMWF.  Shallow RH, weak lift and here's the results.  I also added the NBM from 8PM the 29th which had a touch but am sure it was diminished by the nil EC.  Also, I don't think it captured elevated slightly heavier small flake snowfall. 

imo, no model can be disparaged every time...  I don't. Sometimes frustration-yes!  and the NBM is imperfect but a nice starting point, 

Here's the melted water equiv and snowfall from CoCoRaHs overnight.

Please click for your clarity if you wish

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2023-2024 now ranks as the 4th worst winter in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall through January 31st:

It is also categorized as a "mild" season on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). The AWSSI is based on a more limited data set.

 

What  if we also add in the amount of rainfall and lack of any sunshine into the mix? Does it rank even "higher" on the misery index if we add those two factors Don?

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

You need to include cloudy days in this analysis. This would bump this to the worst winter ever 

bingo, and the amount of rainfall too

 

[donsutherland1]

New York City will have a Dec-Jan mean temperature of 40.8. This will mark the 9th winter with a Dec-Jan mean temperature of 40 or above, with 6 occurring since 2000. This will be the first case of 2 consecutive such winters. Records go back to 1869.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What  if we also add in the amount of rainfall and lack of any sunshine into the mix? Does it rank even "higher" on the misery index if we add those two factors Don?

The data for clouds/sunshine is very limited (goes back to the 1990s). I will incorporate a rainfall variable (% of precipitation that falls as snow) into the mix later today.

[MANDA]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2023-2024 now ranks as the 4th worst winter in terms of warmth and lack of snowfall through January 31st:

It is also categorized as a "mild" season on the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). The AWSSI is based on a more limited data set.

 

I suspect we'll bump up a notch or two by 2/15.

[MJO812]

Nyc biggest snow

[donsutherland1]

Adding a precipitation variable resulted in very few changes e.g., 1905-06 dropped from 9th to 10th.

Simpler version:

Expanded Version:

[wdrag]

Unlikely 12z/31 NAM solution for nearby NYC snow Thu night-Fri morning. Not on the 06z Canadian RGEM, nor on 00z/31 GEFS/CMCE ensembles.  Doesn't mean it can't happen but my guess is that there will be above freezing layers aloft to make this wet NYC, icy w - n suburbs if its nearly this extensive. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Adding a precipitation variable resulted in very few changes e.g., 1905-06 dropped from 9th to 10th.

Simpler version:

Expanded Version:

Thanks, Don, I wonder what the end of winter rankings would look like?  Would 2001-02 catch up to 1931-32 for number 1?

 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Unlikely 12z/31 NAM solution for nearby NYC snow Thu night-Fri morning. Not on the 06z Canadian RGEM, nor on 00z/31 GEFS/CMCE ensembles.  Doesn't mean it can't happen but my guess is that there will be above freezing layers aloft to make this wet NYC, icy w - n suburbs if its nearly this extensive. 

Of course 

Smh

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Very light snow here.  Have been getting very light snow and flurries since the overnight hours.  Most of it has not been sticking.  34/31

I saw a total of 0.5 inch at Mt Pocono, I guess that's the most we can expect from this.

 

[TJW014]

41 days here since 12/1 that there has been 50% or more cloud cover here. All these overcast nights have to be helping bump up our average temps since we can't get any radiational cooling

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, Don, I wonder what the end of winter rankings would look like?  Would 2001-02 catch up to 1931-32 for number 1?

 

2001-02 would rank first at the end of the season. 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Unlikely 12z/31 NAM solution for nearby NYC snow Thu night-Fri morning. Not on the 06z Canadian RGEM, nor on 00z/31 GEFS/CMCE ensembles.  Doesn't mean it can't happen but my guess is that there will be above freezing layers aloft to make this wet NYC, icy w - n suburbs if its nearly this extensive. 

Unfortunately, the 12z RGEM shows no snowfall. 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw a total of 0.5 inch at Mt Pocono, I guess that's the most we can expect from this.

 

It’s quite sad that all you can get is 0.5” at 2000’ above MSL.

[snywx]

Nice wintry day here

32° w/ very lgt snow falling 

 

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, snywx said:

Nice wintry day here

32° w/ very lgt snow falling 

 

Just started falling here in Goshen as well

[SACRUS]

 

CLoudy again , colder 39.  Drier and sunnier times ahead Fri - most of next week.  Overall warmer than norma with a few stronger warmth days.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 64 (1947)
NYC: 63 (1947)
LGA: 61 (1974)


Lows:

 

EWR: 1 (1948)
NYC: -1 (1920)
LGA:  2 (1948)  

 

Historical:

 

1911 - Tamarack, CA, was without snow the first eight days of the month, but by the end of January had been buried under 390 inches of snow, a record monthly total for the U.S. (The Weather Channel)

1949 - The temperature at San Antonio, TX, plunged to a record low of one degree below zero. Helena MT reached 42 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

 

1950: Seattle, Washington experienced their coldest temperature on record with a reading of zero degrees.

1966 - A blizzard struck the northeastern U.S. When the storm came to an end, twenty inches of snow covered the ground at Washington D.C. (David Ludlum)

 

1979: A winter storm that started on the previous day and ended on this day spread 2 to 4 inches of rainfall in 24 hours over much of coastal Southern California and two inches of snow in Palm Springs. Snow fell heavily in Palm Springs, and 8 inches fell at Lancaster. All major interstates into Los Angeles were closed. Snow drifts shut down Interstate 10 on both sides of Palm Springs, isolating the city. 

1982 - A snowstorm struck Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. Twenty-five inches of snow at Greenville IL, located east of Saint Louis, paralyzed the community. The storm left 4000 motorists stranded for two days. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm in the Pacific Northwest produced wind gusts to 85 mph in Oregon, and nearly two inches of rain in twelve hours in the Puget Sound area of Washington State. Ten inches of snow at Stampede Pass WA brought their total snow cover to 84 inches. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-one cities in the central and northeastern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date, with many occurring during the early morning hours. Temperatures in western New York State reached the 60s early in the day. Strong northerly winds in the north central U.S. produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero in North Dakota. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - The barometric pressure at Norway, AK, reached 31.85 inches (1078.4 mb) establishing an all-time record for the North American Continent. The temperature at the time of the record was about 46 degrees below zero (The Weather Channel). Severe arctic cold began to invade the north central U.S. The temperature at Great Falls MT plunged 85 degrees in 36 hours. Valentine NE plummeted from a record high of 70 degrees to zero in just nine hours. Northwest winds gusted to 86 mph at Lander WY, and wind chill readings of 80 degrees below zero were reported in Montana. Sixty-four cities in the central U.S. reported record highs for the date as readings reached the 60s in Michigan and the 80s in Kansas. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - High winds in Montana on the 28th, gusting to 77 mph at Judith Gap, were followed by three days of snow. Heavy snow fell over northwest Montana, with up to 24 inches reported in the mountains. An avalanche covered the road near Essex with six feet of snow. Snow and high winds also plagued parts of the southwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 54 mph at Show Low AZ, and Flagstaff AZ was blanketed with eight inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[sussexcountyobs]

Came home to another .1" of snow that fell early this afternoon.  .3 for the day!

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Came home to another .1" of snow that fell early this afternoon.  .3 for the day!

Kocin and Ucellini are already working on the case study.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw a total of 0.5 inch at Mt Pocono, I guess that's the most we can expect from this.

 

My uncles place mid way between Scranton and Binghamton at 1900’ got 6”. So you just missed out on good banding. It was a lack of precip issue. I’ll be there this weekend. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Kocin and Ucellini are already working on the case study.

That’s a HECS this year for sure,