December Banter 2023

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

No. Its really not. All of the ensembles show a bad pattern in mid January at this point. And once that sets in there is no guarantee it goes away. 

The ens runs don't even get to mid Jan technically. And why is this a 'bad pattern'?

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

No. Its really not. All of the ensembles show a bad pattern in mid January at this point. And once that sets in there is no guarantee it goes away. 

I don't think this is accurate 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I don't think this is accurate 

We'll see. There is going to be a week of suck mid month, That seems pretty set right now. Cant wait to see the posts in here wondering why the Aleutian low isnt getting reestablished after that. We need to score on the 4th or 7th imo. 

[WinterFire]

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Agreed

Its bad when they are wrong. It’s Worse to say they weren’t

It would be great if you would stop lying, both about what the models have said and about what other people have said. It’s sad, especially when it’s so easy to see that you’re making things up. 

[aldie 22]

Aaron Rodgers is high as a kite doing an interview on Prime

[WinterWxLuvr]

54 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I have been hammering Glenfiddich 14 with my son all day. So please forgive any unfortunate posts from me this evening.

Wow, couldn’t tell

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Wow, couldn’t tell

Bwahahaha. Stop it brother. 

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The ens runs don't even get to mid Jan technically. And why is this a 'bad pattern'?

Easier to get caught up in the doom and gloom.

[psuhoffman]

This is my fault. I’ve been putting off needed maintenance on my snowblower. I have all the parts just been busy so I keep procrastinating since there’s been no eminent threat of needing it. But now I realize this is way worse to the snow gods than being so presumptuous as to buy a snowblower, just taking their grace for granted.  But having a snowblower and neglecting it, as if to say “whatever” is spitting in their eye even more so. 
 

I take full responsibility and tomorrow will be performing said maintenance along with some form of ritualistic sacrifice in order to make amends. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my fault. I’ve been putting off needed maintenance on my snowblower. I have all the parts just been busy so I keep procrastinating since there’s been no eminent threat of needing it. But now I realize this is way worse to the snow gods than being so presumptuous as to buy a snowblower, just taking their grace for granted.  But having a snowblower and neglecting it, as if to say “whatever” is spitting in their eye even more so. 
 

I take full responsibility and tomorrow will be performing said maintenance along with some form of ritualistic sacrifice in order to make amends. 

Get off your ass and get to it

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my fault. I’ve been putting off needed maintenance on my snowblower. I have all the parts just been busy so I keep procrastinating since there’s been no eminent threat of needing it. But now I realize this is way worse to the snow gods than being so presumptuous as to buy a snowblower, just taking their grace for granted.  But having a snowblower and neglecting it, as if to say “whatever” is spitting in their eye even more so. 
 

I take full responsibility and tomorrow will be performing said maintenance along with some form of ritualistic sacrifice in order to make amends. 

But some discount Frozen merchandise and feed it into the snow blower piece by piece.

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my fault. I’ve been putting off needed maintenance on my snowblower. I have all the parts just been busy so I keep procrastinating since there’s been no eminent threat of needing it. But now I realize this is way worse to the snow gods than being so presumptuous as to buy a snowblower, just taking their grace for granted.  But having a snowblower and neglecting it, as if to say “whatever” is spitting in their eye even more so. 
 

I take full responsibility and tomorrow will be performing said maintenance along with some form of ritualistic sacrifice in order to make amends. 

Crush about 100 lbs of ice. Use a hammer, make some ceremonial snow, then feed it into the blower. You are making a ritualistic snow sacrifice to the Mid Atlantic Snow Gods. They will be pleased. Mid Atlantic will be demolished by a surprise massive HECS, in spite of the base state.

[snowfan]

The entire LR thread now revolves around the posts of one person, unfortunately. That’s really unhealthy for the sub. Missing the days with old regulars like Ian, usedtobe, etc. 

[Ji]

The entire LR thread now revolves around the posts of one person, unfortunately. That’s really unhealthy for the sub. Missing the days with old regulars like Ian, usedtobe, etc. 

It’s snowed twice since 2016. You gojng to blame psu for the health of the board? You think Ian and usedrobe are gonna be snowier?

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s snowed twice since 2016. You gojng to blame psu for the health of the board? You think Ian and usedrobe are gonna be snowier?

I see what you did there, Ji…..

[wxdude64]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

It’s snowed twice since 2016. You gojng to blame psu for the health of the board? You think Ian and usedrobe are gonna be snowier?

LOL

[North Balti Zen]

It's practically shorts and suntan weather today, the talk of a mid-January warmup leads me to ....warmup to what? Actual swimming weather? 

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It's practically shorts and suntan weather today, the talk of a mid-January warmup leads me to ....warmup to what? Actual swimming weather? 

Don’t get @mattie g excited for summer swim just yet

[aldie 22]

I think i can get one more mow in today after this weeks rains and yesterdays 80 degree temps

[birdsofprey02]

Banter:

Are there any good weather related RSS feeds? Preferably local weather. I'm just not a twitter guy, but I self-host a lot of apps and have a nice RSS aggregator. It would be nice to have weather related feeds added... Thanks!

[aldie 22]

4 hours ago, snowfan said:

The entire LR thread now revolves around the posts of one person, unfortunately. That’s really unhealthy for the sub. Missing the days with old regulars like Ian, usedtobe, etc. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Damn this forum is manic depressive asf. I mean zero disrespect to anyone who suffers from bipolar disorder but g'damn....the cold is coming, the cold is not coming, the pattern is building, the pattern is collapsing, the LR is loaded, the LR is putrid. Ffs ppl 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Damn this forum is manic depressive asf. I mean zero disrespect to anyone who suffers from bipolar disorder but g'damn....the cold is coming, the cold is not coming, the pattern is building, the pattern is collapsing, the LR is loaded, the LR is putrid. Ffs ppl 

I know, right?!?!  Lots of chaff (BS?) to sift through in there to find any nuggets of useful information.  If you're not bipolar before reading it, you'll definitely be by the time you're done!  Or you'll at least suffer neck pain from whiplash.

[Prestige Worldwide]

Too much gloom and doom all the time on here.  I just enjoyed a Friendly’s Reese’s pieces Sundae - I’m good right now 

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

So the truth is…..deep down…no one thought this winter would be like this so far

The vision was

A cold late November early December with a snow window

A mid month warmup but not bad +2 at the worst but the pattern would be changing by Dec 20

Then our best chance for our white Christmas in years

A chance for a winter storm late December early January with the best of our Nino winter still ahead of us

40 inch winter on the way

Ji checklist 

Doesn't know where he lives - check

zero reading comprehension - check

doesn't know the definition of vision - check

[AlexD1990]

This hobby used to be fun.

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Ji checklist 

Doesn't know where he lives - check

zero reading comprehension - check

doesn't know the definition of vision - check

LITERALLY can’t find the season snowfall prediction thread apparently- check 

[snowfan]

2 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

This hobby used to be fun.

It still for those that know and accept what our climo is. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's how I took what he said...but sometimes it's hard to translate "Chuck" into human language 

Sorry for my mistake... 

Sadly, Google translate doesn't help with that.  There's no "Chuck to English" option!!!!  But hieroglyphics works.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Maybe those 'saying its ok' fully realize the advertised look is not what we ideally want to see, but also recognize that if that that's hand we are dealt we have a couple choices- find something else to do, or continue to look for chances within that pattern. We have managed to snow in non-ideal longwave patterns you don't approve of in recent winters, and many here are happy with any snow at all, and don't have your high standards of 40"+ per season and KUs in every Nino. In this area we suck at snow in general, and its likely not getting any better going forward. Maybe you need to adjust a bit.

There is a lot loaded in this...

First of all my post was not directed at you.  Because I know where you and I disagree, and its simply about expectations and what we find acceptable.  And that is ok.  I don't begrudge you what you prefer.  But that is not true of everyone.  There were definitely some posts to the effect of "that pattern can be good".  And we've heard that numerous times over the last 7 years and it just isn't true.  Now I guess we could argue over what "good" is but my bar is an above avg snowfall season.  If your definition of good is lower that is fine but we are arguing apples and oranges then.  

 

But I did not use 40" I used 25".  And I only cut it off there because I was limited to 20 seasons.  I could lower it to 20" and it wouldn't change the pattern look or my point at all!  

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

I think his point, and one I share, is that when we finally get a Nino where things look like they should be lined up for a big season, you have to get that big season. We are coming out of an awful period for snow. I know where I live, I don't expect 96/03/09-10/14 every year. I get it. Those years are few and far between. But especially when our snow in general seems to be really decreasing in the crappy seasons, we have to hit big on the good seasons. To nickel and dime my way to 12-15 inches this year would be dreadful.

Thank you this was exactly how I feel and better than I could have articulated it.  

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

How about realistic expectations? Try that.

We can have this debate.  It's an interesting one to me, but probably not to most so I didn't want to reply in the main thread.  Why is 25" at BWI in a -AO Nino unrealistic?  That is actually below average snowfall for a nino!  Discount the "nino" part and 25" has happened once every 2.9 years on average in Baltimore!  So over the longer period of record I am talking about something that should happen about 1 in 3 years.  

The next part isn't really "fair" to you but this is a larger forum wide discussion, not a personal one, but there are 2 threads of thought going on simultaneously here.  I am both analyzing trying to get a big snowfall season, but also trying to prove my point that I believe our snowfall climo has degraded more than "some" want to admit.  You can't have it both ways.  Not you personally but I mean they can't try to argue I'm crazy and our snow climo is fine and its just been bad luck...then someone else say its not fair when I hold us to the same snow standard and expectations we have had historically.  I agree with you that its likely our normal is radically lower than the numbers I am quoting but that kinda proves my other point and many are not ready to concede that yet!  Can't have it both ways.  

Lastly, there are likely so personal preferences here that lead to this conflict in expectations.  One is my location v yours.  Some of the best seasons for 95 and especially NW of there aren't so good for you.  Your location near the coast makes a progressive wave gradient pattern actually more appealing.  It eliminates the boundary layer temp issues that become an issue in coastals and blocking patterns.  But for places like me those patters are absolute utter BS crap on a stick.  They are mostly SWFE so I lose the upslope that makes my area jack in almost any coastal storm.  And they are unlikely to be storms that hit in strings so they never lead to an above avg season for the whole region.  Your area can luck into an above avg season with one or two hits because your avg is so low but on the whole those types of patterns will never be a region wide big snow year.  Given my location why would I want that type of pattern?  I will never get anywhere close to avg snowfall in that kind of look.  Neither will IAD or Winchester or anyone NW of the fall line.  

Lastly, its about what I like to track.  It's not just about snow to me its also the fun of the chase and tracking.  Progressive waves in a gradient pattern suck.  They are no fun to track.  You can't really identify a discrete threat from any kind of range and they are really a fluke thread the needle thing.  And in the short range they are boring.  They aren't dynamic events.  There is no deform band to try to nail down, no changover line to get right, no thunder snow to root for.  They are just awful from a tracking stand point.  

You are entitled to any expectations you want.  I don't mind your expectations.  But no I won't ever be happy if the best we can do is root to get lucky once in a while in a progressive wave pattern.  That is no fun for me on any level.  Frankly if we come to the point where I accept that's what its come to and the time of getting epic periods from a -NAO eastern trough pattern are gone for good...I will likely just stop actively tracking.  I spent the good part of two winters in NC many years ago and I didn't bother to track.  Ironically they got more snow when I was there those years than we have here recently, but I didn't waste my time tracking weather in hopes of getting one or two random snows.  I knew how unlikely it was to really get much snow so I didn't waste my time.  I will come to that point here pretty soon if things don't turn around.  I am already not tracking nearly as much as I used to.  I never stay up late anymore for a model run.  I sometimes go a while day without doing much analysis myself and just check the posts here.  I am already starting to lose interest.  

ETA:  I don't need to have an lot of snow every season to stay interested...not even every few years...but if we can't get a truly snowy period or an HECS level storm (one or the other) at least a couple times a decade then I'll lose interest and find other things to occupy my time until I can move somewhere that does.