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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

"Try too hard"...hmm, in what way? 

 

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But but wait a minute anything - C. is la nina right? And that's what climate prediction models have been saying, right??? That la nina is more likely at the moment. But according to @mattie g I thought I interpreted this incorrectly?

As far as the other thing about not focusing on next year yet...noted. But don't sit up here and say I have no real knowledge--Uncalled for. Some of you have no mercy whatsoever. I am learning.

P.S. This is a LONG range thread. Next year is still long range. So a passing mention isn't out of bounds. Like actually...nothing I said is out of bounds for this thread. I just made a statement about next year just as others have also stated about next year.

I will offer this as an example. Annoying in many ways, beginning with who you replied to. You are generally too sensitive and defensive. And when you make a post, have a point that is pertinent, accurate, and adds something to the discussion.

You can always just leave it and move on otherwise. Can't go wrong with 'read more/post less'. There are many times I start to make a post, then rethink /evaluate it, and simply delete it.

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These big gaps mid-Winter are like "meh" I am ready for Spring.  It will be kind of annoying to have a lot of snow that melts in 2-3 days.. then is in like the 50s. Or 45 that feels like 60 lol
December-mid Jan snows are so much better 

Do we really ever do well with snow cover? For me Winter is all about snow falling. Give me 2 feet that melts in 6 hours for all I care ha.

Just need some patience right now. The pattern change is coming. The wave near the 13-14th was always a long shot since the cold isn’t established yet. We will have plenty of opportunities 2nd half of Feb into March. By end of week I think threats will start popping up. Could we screw it up? Absolutely, but at least we have a shot. We knew the current pattern offered no chance. We’re getting a PNA ridge, -epo and Atlantic blocking. All you could ask for really.


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1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Frankly if this next 6wks can't produce anything then it's pretty pointless to have any index at all moving forward.  

Just move to a place where indexes don't matter much. When its winter, its cold. And it just snows.

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31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Try too hard? In what way? 

I mean I know I get vigorously defensive when folks attack me, and I gotta work on that...but I'd like to know what you mean.

I think because you have had many "confrontations" for a lack of a better term, you've become overly defensive, so maybe you try to avoid that and in doing so your post become too scripted and they come off as you're begging for acceptance or agreement. That's my best view. Again, I think you have a lot to offer this community but for instance in your earlier post why mention negative thoughts on  next year. You've already done that at least several times. No need to go there again. 

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20 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I think because you have had many "confrontations" for a lack of a better term, you've become overly defensive, so maybe you try to avoid that and in doing so your post become too scripted and they come off as youre begging for acceptance or agreement. That's my best view. Again, I think you have a lot to offer this community but for instance in your earlier post why mention negative thoughts a out next year. You've already done that at least several times. No need to go there again 

Thank you for your input. And yeah I mean...I've felt the need to redeem myself for bad posts the last several years I've been here. And yeah I do get too defensive like you and @CAPE said. I'm a naturally sensitive person who feels everything--and that includes everything said to me (often focusing on the negative said), and I feel the need to "make it right". When I see 20 likes/thank yous on something said against me it feels like an indictment on me as a person, and I gotta defend it. But that's not helpful...maybe not reacting at all is still better even if it has me fuming for a minute. Right now I'd be ashamed to meet most of you in person, knowing my shortcomings on here and how I'd be seen. 

And you're right...that's probably why some of my posts come off as looking for acceptance--as I feel the need to make up for one thing and end up slipping into another mistake.

As for why mention next winter...I don't know why I did again. I think that's just what I've been thinking in my subconscious about next winter, and it's kinda informed how I've viewed this winter...and it just leaked out. But I'm gonna aim to not fear post anymore. Like don't communicate any fears in the main thread...never ends well! 

I'm trying to be better on here, y'all...I'm not there yet

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@Maestrobjwa - 

Have never had an issue with you and I try really hard not to judge people's style and such. But I will say that I, for one do appreciate that over the last year or two you truly seem to have been trying to learn concepts and stuff. 

The biggest advice I will give you - and in no part of this post do I mean any malice or ill will - is that like you said in the other thread...weather is weather - we can't really change it or do anything about it. Weather doesn't care if you're due. Weather doesn't care if you "deserve" snow. Weather doesn't care if you got screwed by 50 snowstorms and are depressed. 

The best advice that I got when I started on Eastern in the 2000s was that you don't have to reply to every post or topic or concept. It's okay to just read. The more you post is not going to trigger the butterfly effect to "will" a snowstorm closer. 

It is OK to just let other folks carry the thread. I too get REALLY bummed out when we miss snowstorms. You'll notice that I largely go silent in the winter here - but I certainly am in here DAILY and quietly obsessing about the snow potential. I've gotten better over the years - but I will admit I in fact do get bummed when stuff doesn't work out. 

But I found a long time ago that the more I posted, the worse my "need" to have snow to be happy got. You have some options here - and it's not even a complete list. 

- Try new hobbies - I've been spotting foxes and animals in my backyard lately and it's been a blast with trailcams and stuff. Way higher success rate than snow chasing too! I also picked up plane spotting in the past few years. Again, not saying THOSE specifically, but they are both more redeeming a lot of times than weather tracking. 

- Get into more diverse weather. We fail a ton at summer/spring severe weather too...but at least by making it more flexible as to the type of weather that interests me - it's not just snow. 

- CHASE the snow if you have the means to do so. I know we can't all pack up like Bob Chill and go to multiple locations. But if you have the means, do it. 

We are unfortunately warming. We don't need to over that. But if you are solely attached to big snow that you "deserve" you're going to have deep depression in the years to come I fear. Gotta take the wins we get and hope for the best. No amount of posting or hand wringing is going to change what Mother Nature wants to do. 

But I want to reiterate - I truly appreciate that you've been trying to learn and improve. 

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19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thank you for your input. And yeah I mean...I've felt the need to redeem myself for bad posts the last several years I've been here. And yeah I do get too defensive like you and @CAPE said. I'm a naturally sensitive person who feels everything--and that includes everything said to me (often focusing on the negative said), and I feel the need to "make it right". When I see 20 likes/thank yous on something said against me it feels like an indictment on me as a person, and I gotta defend it. But that's not helpful...maybe not reacting at all is still better even if it has me fuming for a minute. Right now I'd be ashamed to meet most of you in person, knowing my shortcomings on here and how I'd be seen. 

And you're right...that's probably why some of my posts come off as looking for acceptance--as I feel the need to make up for one thing and end up slipping into another mistake.

As for why mention next winter...I don't know why I did again. I think that's just what I've been thinking in my subconscious about next winter, and it's kinda informed how I've viewed this winter...and it just leaked out. But I'm gonna aim to not fear post anymore. Like don't communicate any fears in the main thread...never ends well! 

I'm trying to be better on here, y'all...I'm not there yet

Don't ever feel ashamed to meet anyone. Like you said just keep trying to be a better poster and continue learning. Try not to take it so personal when someone calls you out. Just shake it off. That comes with age. Now that I'm over 50 I have a much different view opposed to 15-20 years ago.

You're a true winter and snow lover and that's great because they are WAY too many Debs and trolls here!!

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46 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

@Maestrobjwa - 

Have never had an issue with you and I try really hard not to judge people's style and such. But I will say that I, for one do appreciate that over the last year or two you truly seem to have been trying to learn concepts and stuff. 

The biggest advice I will give you - and in no part of this post do I mean any malice or ill will - is that like you said in the other thread...weather is weather - we can't really change it or do anything about it. Weather doesn't care if you're due. Weather doesn't care if you "deserve" snow. Weather doesn't care if you got screwed by 50 snowstorms and are depressed. 

The best advice that I got when I started on Eastern in the 2000s was that you don't have to reply to every post or topic or concept. It's okay to just read. The more you post is not going to trigger the butterfly effect to "will" a snowstorm closer. 

It is OK to just let other folks carry the thread. I too get REALLY bummed out when we miss snowstorms. You'll notice that I largely go silent in the winter here - but I certainly am in here DAILY and quietly obsessing about the snow potential. I've gotten better over the years - but I will admit I in fact do get bummed when stuff doesn't work out. 

But I found a long time ago that the more I posted, the worse my "need" to have snow to be happy got. You have some options here - and it's not even a complete list. 

- Try new hobbies - I've been spotting foxes and animals in my backyard lately and it's been a blast with trailcams and stuff. Way higher success rate than snow chasing too! I also picked up plane spotting in the past few years. Again, not saying THOSE specifically, but they are both more redeeming a lot of times than weather tracking. 

- Get into more diverse weather. We fail a ton at summer/spring severe weather too...but at least by making it more flexible as to the type of weather that interests me - it's not just snow. 

- CHASE the snow if you have the means to do so. I know we can't all pack up like Bob Chill and go to multiple locations. But if you have the means, do it. 

We are unfortunately warming. We don't need to over that. But if you are solely attached to big snow that you "deserve" you're going to have deep depression in the years to come I fear. Gotta take the wins we get and hope for the best. No amount of posting or hand wringing is going to change what Mother Nature wants to do. 

But I want to reiterate - I truly appreciate that you've been trying to learn and improve. 

@Kmlwx, this is an EXCELLENT post, I couldn't have said it any better than you have...thank you!  I'm more or less the same.  Yeah, I'll post in here, add some (hopefully!) useful input or at least humor when appropriate.  But I also many times just "lurk" and read what the experts say.  Or I'll post observations during an event.  You mentioned hobbies...photography has become one of my biggest over the past 10+ years, and I really like it, no matter the weather.  I'm always finding that my eye catches something interesting and I'll think "ohhh, I need to get a shot of that!" or whatever (and if only I had the correct lens attached at the right time, too!!  Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't!).  And I certainly will take plenty of snow photos during events, if anything to document them.  But honestly, spring and fall around here offer some of the best photography opportunities, with things blooming in the spring or the changing leaves in the fall...or birds, any time of the year.  This past November when the Japanese maples over in the Audubon nature center nearby me busted out in all their amazing red, orange, and yellow color...I was beside myself walking around taking any shot I could (I felt almost like the character Po, in "Kung Fu Panda", when he was in the hall of warriors museum going berserk at all the artifacts!).

Foxes...funny you mention that!  I recently (last few years or so) have seen more encroaching on what are nominally populated areas.  In fact, a few years back I was out taking photos during some snow event and saw a fox coming sort of toward me.  At first I thought, "who has their dog running around here without a leash???" then realized it was a fox!  It just ran on right past me (within a few feet or so), paying no heed of my presence, kind of scared me to be honest.  I didn't have a chance to get my camera out from under my coat to grab a shot of him, but it was pretty neat (if scary!).

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Man used to get my kicks posing in front of a bunch of dudes in basically just a speedo and I've raised moths for over 35yrs.  Learned not to take myself very seriously, especially on the Internet.  

I find it hilarious that we argue over the weather when it's literally the thing in life that we basically have the least control over in the entire world.  Having a warm weather hobby (or five) to look forward to every year helps during these late winter suck pattern doldrums. 

 

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's what I thought. I'm telling ya I can't win with this board. I get weenied for saying to relax, weenied for being too much of a deb...I'm the forum piñata basically.

Someone blindfold me and hand me a stick 

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5 hours ago, Heisy said:


Do we really ever do well with snow cover? For me Winter is all about snow falling. Give me 2 feet that melts in 6 hours for all I care ha.

Just need some patience right now. The pattern change is coming. The wave near the 13-14th was always a long shot since the cold isn’t established yet. We will have plenty of opportunities 2nd half of Feb into March. By end of week I think threats will start popping up. Could we screw it up? Absolutely, but at least we have a shot. We knew the current pattern offered no chance. We’re getting a PNA ridge, -epo and Atlantic blocking. All you could ask for really.


.

There was always snow cover when I was a kid. We also used to get a lot of flurries storms, and numerous 1-3, 2-4". I think a lot of the millennium kids don't really know that. It also used to be much windier in the Wintertime.  You're right about the pattern.. it is awesome, but the globe has been saturated with High pressure lately so we'll have to see if that ever breaks. 

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Like I'm mostly here to have fun.  I like bring some joy/laughter here among us crazy ass people obsessed with frozen water crystals.  We're all trollable.  I love troll...some people can take it.  Some...can't.  Oh well.   But I shall let no other interloper from another forum tease my people.  It's family in here and only we can troll/tease each other.  I've gone after the so called leaders of the cult of personality and they seem to be the ones to take it in all the fun and games that it's supposed to be.

Our other problem is just impatience.  People are desperate and all of this is frustrating.  But hasn't it always been this way?  Look, if we're not tracking something by the 17th, I'll probably end up in here leading the pack with pitchforks and torches.

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Like I'm mostly here to have fun.  I like bring some joy/laughter here among us crazy ass people obsessed with frozen water crystals.  We're all trollable.  I love troll...some people can take it.  Some...can't.  Oh well.   But I shall let no other interloper from another forum tease my people.  It's family in here and only we can troll/tease each other.  I've gone after the so called leaders of the cult of personality and they seem to be the ones to take it in all the fun and games that it's supposed to be.

Our other problem is just impatience.  People are desperate and all of this is frustrating.  But hasn't it always been this way?  Look, if we're not tracking something by the 17th, I'll probably end up in here leading the pack with pitchforks and torches.

Don't forget the five gallon containers of high octane gasoline.

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Patience. The pattern is setting up. This is going to be a very fulfilling time in late Feb/early March. Multiple storms to track, stayin up all night to watch the heavy snow, then digging deep snow til you fall over lmao.

You guys are going to get destroyed by snow. The usual suspects that get the higher amounts are going to experience near-palisades conditions. This jet stream means serious bisnass! The pattern does, too! It's going to be plenty cold and the moisture will be there!

Models are going to be all over the place! Remember that. Its still coming.

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11 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Like I'm mostly here to have fun.  I like bring some joy/laughter here among us crazy ass people obsessed with frozen water crystals.  We're all trollable.  I love troll...some people can take it.  Some...can't.  Oh well.   But I shall let no other interloper from another forum tease my people.  It's family in here and only we can troll/tease each other.  I've gone after the so called leaders of the cult of personality and they seem to be the ones to take it in all the fun and games that it's supposed to be.

Our other problem is just impatience.  People are desperate and all of this is frustrating.  But hasn't it always been this way?  Look, if we're not tracking something by the 17th, I'll probably end up in here leading the pack with pitchforks and torches.

Nobody from another forum is allowed to mess with or troll us!!

YARN | Somebody messes with me, I'm gonna mess with him. | The Untouchables  | Video clips by quotes | f55c53e5 | 紗

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