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Panic Room - Winter 23/24 Edition


mappy
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THIS IS VERY BAD.

I will be carrying water like a Sooner on the Frontier. I WILL in effect, BE a Sooner for three days. It is a Certainty. I will be doing this for days on end, and I am in no shape to even be THINKING about it!

This is why I hate winter weather in Texas. This is not the way things were when I lived in Glendale in Dale City, Virginia, and I am an old, played-out, broken down OLD MAN who has no business trying to do anything in major deep winter conditions in central Texas. I can't even walk across our front lawn in 88/68 weather without getting severely out of breath while the neighbors frantically call 9-11.

This is serious, serious BAD stuff. Every water line in Texas WILL FREEZE SOLID. No exceptions!

They expect lows around ten degrees at least two nights in a row down here! Our normal low is 43!

Even a little of that frzra will be enough to make me fall right on my ass on our driveway! I had a severe ear infection that never healed, and now I have balance problems! Yeah, I am an old man, now.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
322 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Moderate northwesterly winds continue to bring drier air to South
Central Texas this afternoon. Winds will diminish as the surface
high pressure center moves across the region tonight. With mostly
clear skies, low dewpoints, and light winds, temperatures will fall
rapidly after sunset. Low temperatures will be around six degrees
below normal in the 30s across the entire CWA. The colder spots will
drop to near or slightly below freezing. Southwesterly winds on
Saturday bring warmer temperatures with highs six to ten degrees
higher than today. Big changes will come Saturday night. A strong,
arctic cold front will move through North Texas reaching our
northern border by mid-evening. The front will move quickly through
our CWA reaching our southern border by daybreak Sunday. This front
will bring the coldest air of the season. Models accelerated the
frontal passage last night and have keep this timing today. Low
temperatures Sunday behind the front will be in the upper teens to
upper 20s along and north of I-10/Hwy 90. Winds will also increase
to 10 to 15 mph behind the front. This will produce wind chill
temperatures near 10 degrees over the Hill Country and northern
parts of the I-35 corridor. We do not expect any precipitation with
the frontal passage. We may need to issue a Wind Chill Advisory for
wind chill temperatures of 10 or less, but will wait until we have
more confidence.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

KEY POINTS:
-A strong Arctic front will bring much colder temperatures, brisk
 northerly winds and very low wind chills to south central Texas
 Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures are likely to remain below
 freezing for close to 3 days in the Hill Country and nearby I-35
 corridor from the northern Austin Metro area northward. Minimum wind
 chills will be in the teens and 20s Sunday morning, then fall to
 below zero and in the single digits at times for many locations
 Sunday night into Tuesday morning. Hard freezes should impact the
 Hill Country and Austin Metro area Sunday morning, most areas by
 Monday morning, and all of South Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday
 mornings.
-Chances for light wintry precipitation in the form of freezing rain
 are increasing, especially along the Interstate 35 corridor from San
 Antonio northward through Austin Sunday evening through Monday
 morning. The Hill Country, northern Interstate 35 corridor, and
 northern Coastal Plains may see patchy freezing rain as early as
 late Sunday afternoon, but more likely in the evening, and
 continuing overnight into early Monday. Accumulations have increased
 with a few hundredths up to one-tenth of an inch possible, leading
 to slick roads Sunday evening through much of Monday. Breezy dry air
 should promote any accumulations to sublimate during the day even if
 temperatures remain below freezing. However, elevated roadways that
 see the higher totals will need to be watched carefully.

The latest model runs continue to trend faster and colder with the
Arctic air set to spill across the region by sunrise Sunday. Some of
the higher resolution models are beginning to get a handle on this
air mass and the result will be a significant drop in the forecast
high temperatures for Sunday. Cold air advection, increasing
cloudiness and low sun angle will yield highs mainly in the 30s,
except lower 40s along the Rio Grande. Highs in the Hill Country and
nearby I-35 corridor north of Austin may not reach freezing. The
other main trend we have see in the models is an increase in
precipitation chances beginning Sunday evening and continuing into
Monday morning. In most of our winter weather events, the one
limiting factor is temperatures at or below freezing. In this case,
below freezing temperatures won`t be a problem. We have also seen an
uptick in model precipitation amounts for Sunday evening through
Monday morning and have increase precipitation chances for the
mentioned period. We did opt to end precipitation chances Monday
afternoon, but will keep an eye on areas east of I-35/I-37. Strong
cold air advection continues Monday night into Tuesday morning
dropping lows into the teens and 20s for a widespread hard freeze.
Would not be surprised to see a few single digit readings over the
Hill Country. The temperatures combined with stout northerly winds
will send wind chills even lower and a Wind Chill Advisory and Wind
Chill Warning may certainly be needed Monday morning and Tuesday
morning across most areas. Clouds begin to decrease Tuesday, but cold
air remains entrenched for more highs mainly in the 30s.
Temperatures begin to moderate Wednesday, but remain below
climatological levels for this time of year. Another cold front is
expected sometime late Thursday or early Friday. We will need to
monitor carefully as models may very well trend faster with the front
as late next week approaches.
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4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Well, the euro was right about Tuesday being trash. Gfs caught up. But the euro is more optimistic for 7 days out, gfs hates it, so .... What? Why do I even bother 

It's one Op run at day 8...at this range all we need is for A storm to be there. There is 0% chance that's exactly how the storm is gonna go. I think folks are responding more emotionally due to being disappointed by Tuesday...and I get that. But even so...it's Day 7/8 people, lol

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4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

It is days like today that convince me that dead ratter seasons are preferable to winters like this. The rug pulls are just so tiring.

Last year we never had a chance inside of 5 days. 

This year? Twice. Two heartbreakers in one month. 

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Last year we never had a chance inside of 5 days. 

If you had a gun to your head right now and had to predict how many years before DCA/BWI/IAD (yes all 3 no fluke year where one spot just gets lucky) all record an above avg snowfall season. What would you say? 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If you had a gun to your head right now and had to predict how many years before DCA/BWI/IAD (yes all 3 no fluke year where one spot just gets lucky) all record an above avg snowfall season. What would you say? 

5…5 more years. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If you had a gun to your head right now and had to predict how many years before DCA/BWI/IAD (yes all 3 no fluke year where one spot just gets lucky) all record an above avg snowfall season. What would you say? 

How long until the new 30-year averages come out?  Once that happens it shouldn't be far behind.  A trashcan topper should do it.

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2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This was all too easy to see coming.

Maybe not that easy.  This looked fairly straight forward.  1050 digging into TX.  Bitter cold air.  I would have not thought this could fail too. No snow ever no matter what the pattern.  No matter how close the cold is to us. Just cannot snow here.  I’m convinced of this.  

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When you look at the N Hemisphere 850 temp anomaly way out to 384.  The whole world is on fire basically.  It’s just frickin warm.  And snow doesn’t do well with warm.  It’s our new normal. What can you do. 

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14 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

How long until the new 30-year averages come out?  Once that happens it shouldn't be far behind.  A trashcan topper should do it.

2031. But 2003 and 2010 will still be in there. They will come down. But if things don’t turn around 2041 is when they might fall off a cliff once 2001-2010 age out. 

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's one Op run at day 8...at this range all we need is for A storm to be there. There is 0% chance that's exactly how the storm is gonna go. I think folks are responding more emotionally due to being disappointed by Tuesday...and I get that. But even so...it's Day 7/8 people, lol

Damn man they must have shot you up with horse tranquilizers…

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Fvck. Winter is over. I would like spring now please.

Why even track. What's the point.

What a cruel cruel hobby.

I am gonna change my screen name to debman.

Models aren't even worth their weight in shyte anymore.

Lucy needs to jump off a ledge and so will I.

It's never going to snow again.

We got us a whole new fvckload of snow futility markers.

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5 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The real question is: what happens if we somehow get completely shut out again this winter? That would even be worse than my dire winter forecast. What will the conversation be like going forward? Would anyone ever forecast above average snow again? Would we still have “deniers?”

Yes. Some of them have already been annoyed when there are posts implying this year settles is, because it will NEVER be that in their mind. They won’t even like when it’s brought up!  

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My personal view is you guys will still end up near average for snow.

But most of it will come in a 2-4 week period starting in late February that runs through mid-March. You're not particularly close to the favorable part of the pattern yet. I'm expecting March (at times, not the whole month) to resemble something like this, but with the main features shifted Northeast. I suspect you'd get some off mean-track system that would dump 6 inches of snow in that setup.

Screenshot-2024-01-12-7-26-14-PM

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8 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I can't believe the last snow I'll have ever seen at my house was that candy-ass slop event in 2022.  From now on the only frozen precip will be from me emptying bags of ice from the party store off my roof.  Extirpated.  

Pretty sure Garrett Co is still gonna get snow for awhile :). We currently have 6-8" of super dense ice-snow on the ground. Snowblower can't even touch it its so dense. Had to use a bobcat to plow my drive. Snowplow pile was 24" and hard as a rock. Local plow guy's blade couldn't make a dent in it. 

DMV? We might fluke into something but at this point I'm not holding my breath. Gotta road trip it for the white stuff. 

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15 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

My personal view is you guys will still end up near average for snow.

But most of it will come in a 2-4 week period starting in late February that runs through mid-March. You're not particularly close to the favorable part of the pattern yet. I'm expecting March (at times, not the whole month) to resemble something like this, but with the main features shifted Northeast. I suspect you'd get some off mean-track system that would dump 6 inches of snow in that setup.

Screenshot-2024-01-12-7-26-14-PM

Late February through mid-March!?  Bruh my tomato plants will be in the ground by March, I think you're just rubbing it in at this point.

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7 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Pretty sure Garrett Co is still gonna get snow for awhile :). We currently have 6-8" of super dense ice-snow on the ground. Snowblower can't even touch it its so dense. Had to use a bobcat to plow my drive. Snowplow pile was 24" and hard as a rock. Local plow guy's blade couldn't make a dent in it. 

DMV? We might fluke into something but at this point I'm not holding my breath. Gotta road trip it for the white stuff. 

I wouldn't even count on snow at DCL in a few years' time.  My game cam has been sending me pics from up there with about half a foot of snow on the ground though.  From down here it might as well be sending pics from the moon.

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22 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

My personal view is you guys will still end up near average for snow.

But most of it will come in a 2-4 week period starting in late February that runs through mid-March. You're not particularly close to the favorable part of the pattern yet. I'm expecting March (at times, not the whole month) to resemble something like this, but with the main features shifted Northeast. I suspect you'd get some off mean-track system that would dump 6 inches of snow in that setup.

Screenshot-2024-01-12-7-26-14-PM

We'll hit 80F in March.

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When I retired years ago, it was time. After years of building, owning, and operating The Panic Room, I was tired. I needed to hang up the scythe and engage in other pursuits. 

I took up rest. 

OMuTKN0.jpg

I became something of a celebrity. You may have seen some of my cameo appearances on television. 

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e479wwz6md5gbpdprj1tr 

giphy.gif

And of course, I've enjoyed the beach. 

skeleton-sits-beach-front-ocean_662214-9

But deep down, I always knew when I retired that there was a chance I'd have to put on the Garment of Darkness again as the cries of Mid-Atlantic weenies grew louder with successive years of snow futility.

I've watched with concern as @psuhoffmanslipped into madness, saying that the days of Mid-Atlantic snow have ended.

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47wm3z9kwa2inw2muqcw

My empty chest cavity sank as I saw the rage on the subforum boil over daily and the schadenfreude that warmed the heart of @mattie g.

giphy.gif

Even folks like @H2O seem lost.

giphy.gif

I sat by quietly and witnessed the devolution of this subforum, until I received a call I couldn't avoid.

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

Fvck. Winter is over. I would like spring now please.

Why even track. What's the point.

What a cruel cruel hobby.

I am gonna change my screen name to debman.

Models aren't even worth their weight in shyte anymore.

Lucy needs to jump off a ledge and so will I.

It's never going to snow again.

We got us a whole new fvckload of snow futility markers.

For the first time, the alarm in my sacred chamber was triggered. 

TtfAdi7.jpg

My old friend has called for my return for years. Those calls went unanswered. But seeing this most profound lamentation at the season was too much for me to bear.  

For too long there have been no consequences for canceling winter early. There is too much anger and strife, rather than camaraderie and comedy forged by being beaten down by winter.

There must be a sacrifice to please the Great Pacific. There must be violence to disturb the Polar Vortex. 

The Lord High Executioner of the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Realms must step forward to conduct this most solemn task. 

hPEjIrh.jpg 

@Jebman, I think you still have faith in flakes, and for winter to truly arrive (we think) I must take one with a pure winter weenie heart and soul. Wipe those tears from your eyes and grab your shovel. It's time to come home. 

giphy.gif

Sorry it had to be so messy. I know you wanted white glove service but I had a spa appointment I couldn't miss. 

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47aef7bb21xoq91r31w2

uWuC96G.png

Ok, now back to yoga and fishing and retirement. You're welcome, Mid-Atlantic. 

Oh...wow..I almost forgot. Jeb, let me borrow that shovel for a minute. 

On 12/27/2023 at 6:40 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm out. Enjoy the false promises in the long range. I was hoping I'd be wrong and we'd get snow this winter, but it's obvious there's no chance. I still hope I'm wrong and get mercilessly bump trolled in a few weeks, but we're making an honest run at a winter as bad as last year. PSU was right, our snow climo is forever screwed.

giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47i5itlarr1v9hj7gkf0

onLMksW.png

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