December Mid/Long Range Discussion

[stormy]

37 minutes ago, nj2va said:

This aligns to what the early seasonal models / many predicted for how the winter would go.  Seems everything is still aligned.

 

12-21 would be perfect!!!!!  1 day after my GEFS prediction.   Thanks Allan!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

37 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

First time the  cold  has  dug  in with a storm

 

Only 16 days out 

[winter_warlock]

On 11/30/2023 at 10:04 PM, 87storms said:

It still seems like we’re in a pseudo/residual La Niña until the actual El Niño effects ramp up.

Im thinking elnino wont really Make an impact till  January.. in my opinion 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, stormy said:

12-21 would be perfect!!!!!  1 day after my GEFS prediction.   Thanks Allan!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Factor in the normal 2-3 week delay.  We’ve seen this movie before.  

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS at Day 16 v. Operational

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS at Day 16 v. Operational

Yes a mean of 30 perturbed lower resolution members is going to look different than a single higher resolution operational run 15 days out.

Besides that obvious fact, you can see the beginnings of a PNA ridge and perhaps an Aleutian trough developing on the mean.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yes a mean of 30 perturbed lower resolution members is going to look different than a single higher resolution operational run 15 days out.

Besides that obvious fact, you can see the beginnings of a PNA ridge and perhaps and Aleutian trough developing on the mean.

It's going to be a long winter lol.

Some won't make it. 

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's going to be a long winter lol.

Some won't make it. 

Someone needs to tell Will he hasn't made it. Seriously. For all of us. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's going to be a long winter lol.

Some won't make it. 

Love WW but he needs to tell us what he is attempting to illustrate instead of just spamming the thread with all those pretty WB panels.

[SnowGoose69]

34 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS at Day 16 v. Operational

 

Funny thing is we saw this often last winter the other way around.  GEFS tried making pattern favorable for us at a couple of points consistently D12-16 but Op runs mysteriously kept showing raging SERs and torches and sure enough those verified better strangely enough.  We were talking about this in the NYC forum yesterday, its somewhat odd.  I'd have to really dig in last year and now to see if ensembles were being skewed by 15-20% of members going severe one way

[CAPE]

47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Funny thing is we saw this often last winter the other way around.  GEFS tried making pattern favorable for us at a couple of points consistently D12-16 but Op runs mysteriously kept showing raging SERs and torches and sure enough those verified better strangely enough.  We were talking about this in the NYC forum yesterday, its somewhat odd.  I'd have to really dig in last year and now to see if ensembles were being skewed by 15-20% of members going severe one way

I'd like to see the analysis. This sounds anecdotal to me.

[Ji]

I'd like to see the analysis. This sounds anecdotal to me.

I kinda remember this? It felt like op models at times has a better bead on the pattern than ensembles

[cbmclean]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

I kinda remember this? It felt like op models at times has a better bead on the pattern than ensembles

I remember being teased by both the Ops and the ensembles multiple times but I think we usually disregarded the top at range, and rightfully so.  I know we want that particular op to be right.

[Scraff]

Sadly the Scraff Beer Fridge Index took a big hit and went negative today. I’m deeply concerned….not about snow you fools, but my liver! 

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, Ji said:

I kinda remember this? It felt like op models at times has a better bead on the pattern than ensembles

You kinda remember? 'Feels' aren't necessarily factual.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Sadly the Scraff Beer Fridge Index took a big hit and went negative today. I’m deeply concerned….not about snow you fools, but my liver! 

You unfortunately need to flush it out with (Pac) Puke for awhile.  Then let the cold beer re-generate once the MJO beer index gets out of the no beer circle of death, and the -SBFI (negative Scraff Beer Fridge Index) is able to go positive again!

[CAPE]

The ensemble system exists for a reason.

But let's just toss the whole concept of ensembles and quantifying uncertainty, because we 'feel' the op run alone mostly ends up getting it right in the LR. After how many completely disparate permutations? Okay.

[Daniel Boone]

9 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

You unfortunately need to flush it out with (Pac) Puke for awhile.  Then let the cold beer re-generate once the MJO beer index gets out of the no beer circle of death, and the -SBFI (negative Scraff Beer Fridge Index) is able to go positive again!

There's some hope this Winter for the East according to the Great incredible Oz of Meteorology, Snowman's brother, Radiance wx. He said it'll be more '09-10 Nino like by March. Maybe as early as late February . All hope is not lost  What great News!!!

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The ensemble system exists for a reason.

But let's just toss the whole concept of ensembles and quantifying uncertainty, because we 'feel' the op run alone mostly ends up getting it right in the LR. After how many completely disparate permutations? Okay.

Like I said the other day...science and emotion don't always go together, lol

[RDM]

For those of us on the elder side who remember the show Hee Haw in the 60's and 70's, our wish casting in the MA region is akin to the old song in the cornfield with Roy Clark and Buck Owens...  ".... If it weren't for bad luck we'd have no luck at all.  Gloom, despair and misery on us all"    Let's hope this year is "The Year" we'll all remember for the GOOD...  not the bad and the ugly.  

 

[ldub23]

GFS went from winter storm to summer  heat.

[MDScienceTeacher]

13 hours ago, ldub23 said:

JAN 1994 was chilly  in NYC with 3 lows  of  zero or  colder

 

Maybe this  is the  beginning  of the  pattern change. We are  not at the  beginning  of the end  but the end  of the  beginning

 

 

The 384 hour GFS is never correct. It can get lucky but never correct.  I would recommend picking a time where you can legitimately start taking model out put seriously (like <168 hours ) and dont look at anything after that .

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 hours ago, CAPE said:

I left out last December because other aspects of the pattern were favorable enough and the massive ridge wasn't quite established early on, so we actually had a shot. Just didn't work out. Beyond that during our actual winter period we literally had no chance.

Vs eps and geps means from 0z...

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

^^Scandinavian Ridge building ftw ?

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Vs eps and geps means from 0z...

 

 So you expect this h5 look to lock in like last winter then?

[poolz1]

MJO is forecast to fade into the null phase out of warm phases and shows no interest in amplifying.  SOI hovering around 0 the past week or so.  Nino seems to be asleep when it comes to influencing the PAC pattern.  Until something changes the -PDO will rule the PAC i guess?

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

MJO is forecast to fade into the null phase out of warm phases and shows no interest in amplifying.  SOI hovering around 0 the past week or so.  Nino seems to be asleep when it comes to influencing the PAC pattern.  Until something changes the -PDO will rule the PAC i guess?

The PDO really isnt a pattern driver. The phase is influenced by multiple factors, ENSO state being one. The MJO is a short term modulator and the current wave will be focused over the MC in the coming days and is largely responsible for the unfavorable looks on the PAC side imo. Beyond that the convection looks to shift into the Western PAC and weaken based on current forecasts. Ultimately the atmospheric response to a Nino should feature a NE PAC low, and the location of that going forward will become a major influence on the downstream pattern. We also have to factor in the current Strat activity and possible impacts on the h5 pattern. Upshot is the pattern is in flux and looks generally mild for the middle third of the month. End of Dec into Jan might be pretty interesting.

[CAPE]

12 hours ago, Chris78 said:

It's going to be a long winter lol.

Some won't make it. 

Beginning to think many won't make it.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

^^Scandinavian Ridge building ftw ?

The eastern US is part of Scandinavia??  Who knew!?!? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 So you expect this h5 look to lock in like last winter then?

I do not. However, Nina->Nino lag/hangover can sometimes take longer to shake than we would like. Just thought those looks were incredibly similar outside of the Scan ridge building in which many of us here including myself are hoping for ie favorable AO/NAO looks which we need in a Nino. The Pac should work itself out....December Ninos are always iffy which is why a couple weeks ago I mentioned we need to be patient thru Dec because it might take some time to get there.