Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, rimetree said: Not worth much but Canadian has been insisting on basically no event...everything suppressed. Maybe a compromise would work. yeah ... it's interesting. i've noticed that. there are signals in conflict from multiple sources. for ex, the NAO is positive (very much so). it is slowly dwindling down to neutral by the end of week 2 but in so far as what it properly should interpret, that is no help for winter enthusiasts through that period in question. positive NAO modes support the left turning storm tracks through the Lakes. in contrast, PNA is hugely rsing. +delta to +3 SD. a positive PNA state in latter D thru JF connotes a western ridge/eastern trough PNAP response. doing so clear to +3 standard deviation? that's too much in an index that covers a domain nearly a quarter of the planetary x-y coordinates to believe the western ridge/eastern trough PNAP response would ultimately fail. we are seeing that, but what comes next is oddly empty. it's annoying. getting tired of looking at it and making excuses for why the table is getting set with fine china and stem ware, yet the operational versions won't deliver guests to the gala. the charts should be lit up with a something ... i hate to say, but the Euro solution from 00z ... ( even the fantasy range off the 06z) are not terrible statistically fits for this PNA era extending into the first week of January. lacking cold air for the 29th thing but most have been on the same page with that.. however, the Euros deep coastal isn't the shared vision. what a range of solutions, huh. Euro coastal menace ( flooding inland, surf damage on the coast, and federal grant to keep the ski industry from a billion dollar collapse), the GFS with a giant busted ravioli of a cyclone that looks more like something out of the pages of an tortured April sog fest, and the GGEM with absolutely nothing. f-up morass in the guidance. all i can say is that statistics support more than the GGEM. that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: yikes You and I may be the only two individuals in this engagement of returning users that is willing to suspect ( if not anticipate) another 80 F temperature event in February. I've seen this occur twice in 7 years, with a few other occurrences of at least 70 during Februaries over the last 10 years. I also count the 86F heat in March back in 2017 as likely connected to the same sort of stuff/forcing. Whether it snows in those FMA months is ultimately 'sides the point, there is an interesting signal there happening regardless - which has also taken place regardless of ENSO this or that. I don't have a problem with late Jan version of that - ... may not be 80 ( lol ) but 70. I could see that happening. Especially if we make it that far without a cryosphere over southern Canada. By then ... we are only two weeks from exiting the annual solar minimum period. It may be fun to yank the short and curlies of the winter enthusiasts with sobering aspects - that's not what I am trying to contribute to, here. seriously! but I wonder about NH heat this next warm season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Chilly day. 24° and clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 The first week of January could be quite intriguing with the NAO looking to tank and the PNA becoming more neutral. Ensembles seem in pretty good agreement in how the NAO/PNA evolve moving through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 26 minutes ago, forkyfork said: yikes I'll personally have this forum shutdown if this happens lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like an active srn stream on the ensembles. Might be some gorillas from the gulf? Hope not, 8.25”of rain in a week has not been good on my sediment filter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Just got a propane full-up, 79.6 gal at $4.099. genny has been running for 70 hours, and with the periodic 5-minute tests and a couple short outages since April, the gallon-per-hour estimate we were given seems to be working. Called CMP because a neighbor on our short road had read that the road had power restored - nope; Sat. 10 PM was the latest estimate. Burns a bit that folks on the tar road 2000 feet away got lit up last night, but with only 3 customers on our road, it's understandable. Bright blue 10-15 mph breeze, mid 20s. Would be a beautiful day were the ground white. Family scheduled to arrive tomorrow, though that's not firm, but when they get here things will look much like their home in SNJ. Sad 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The first week of January could be quite intriguing with the NAO looking to tank and the PNA becoming more neutral. Ensembles seem in pretty good agreement in how the NAO/PNA evolve moving through the end of the month. PNA is a lot more than neutral from all three accessible agencies - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 It better be plus, We get to the second week of Jan and no results, My patience will start to wear quite thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The first week of January could be quite intriguing with the NAO looking to tank and the PNA becoming more neutral. Ensembles seem in pretty good agreement in how the NAO/PNA evolve moving through the end of the month. Not very likely unfortunately 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: PNA is a lot more than neutral from all three accessible agencies - eh that was poorly worded. I was just looking at the charts though, didn't look at pattern. I should have said that there is strong agreement that the NAO becomes less positive moving through the end of the month and after a bit of a PNA spike, the PNA looks to become less positive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Heading over to Costco , thinking if we will need an industrial size bottle of lube for January just in case 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Heading over to Costco , thinking if we will need an industrial size bottle of lube for January just in case Tip has it already, you can borrow his. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Heading over to Costco , thinking if we will need an industrial size bottle of lube for January just in case Get a XL tube instead, You can keep it in your back pocket for that spontaneous moment. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Get a XL tube instead, You can keep it in your back pocket for that spontaneous moment. Thanks , Johns Cosmic dildo powered by the Hadley Cell may have us holding our ankles east of “Appalachia” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not very likely unfortunately What are your January thoughts if someone put another weenie to your head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Heading over to Costco , thinking if we will need an industrial size bottle of lube for January just in case let me know if any good deals on toasters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What are your January thoughts if someone put another weenie to your head Kev is gonna go into the reverse psych mode now…you can see it coming. Ironically things after Xmas week look pretty decent Actually, so I don’t get the angst at the moment? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 29 minutes ago, tamarack said: Just got a propane full-up, 79.6 gal at $4.099. genny has been running for 70 hours, and with the periodic 5-minute tests and a couple short outages since April, the gallon-per-hour estimate we were given seems to be working. Called CMP because a neighbor on our short road had read that the road had power restored - nope; Sat. 10 PM was the latest estimate. Burns a bit that folks on the tar road 2000 feet away got lit up last night, but with only 3 customers on our road, it's understandable. Bright blue 10-15 mph breeze, mid 20s. Would be a beautiful day were the ground white. Family scheduled to arrive tomorrow, though that's not firm, but when they get here things will look much like their home in SNJ. Sad My wife has reminded me we should have installed an on-demand LP genny, but we bought a Honda 7000IS inverter few years ago. Was pricey, but runs like a champ. In eco mode, I'm getting about 14hrs on ~4gal or about 0.29gal/hr. At $3.11/gal, that's costing us $0.90/hr. If we were using LP at an avg 1gal/hr, that would be $3.75 based on most recent tank fill. I know there are lots of benefits to on-demand, but I can't see spending 8-10K on such a unit for the convivence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 12z GFS would be the straw that breaks the camels back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 42 minutes ago, tamarack said: Just got a propane full-up, 79.6 gal at $4.099. genny has been running for 70 hours, and with the periodic 5-minute tests and a couple short outages since April, the gallon-per-hour estimate we were given seems to be working. Called CMP because a neighbor on our short road had read that the road had power restored - nope; Sat. 10 PM was the latest estimate. Burns a bit that folks on the tar road 2000 feet away got lit up last night, but with only 3 customers on our road, it's understandable. Bright blue 10-15 mph breeze, mid 20s. Would be a beautiful day were the ground white. Family scheduled to arrive tomorrow, though that's not firm, but when they get here things will look much like their home in SNJ. Sad I'm in the same boat, when we lose power in town, there's only 4 of us on our street so we get taken care of last, they start in areas that get the most homes back with power first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS would be the straw that breaks the camels back. Another Rainer to canadas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Stock up on Culverts, Crushed Rock, Rip Rap and Gravel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What are your January thoughts if someone put another weenie to your head That things are delayed until about mid month for any snow chances in SNE. Maybe the 2nd week things start to turn. With no blocking it’s just gonna be cut city until then in my eyes. I just hope it’s not one of those good 7-10 periods and you build up at least some pack , and then you wake up and people are already discussing the torch or coming warmup which totally ruins any good winter vibes and ability to enjoy the snow . I can see that happening 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Funny how we feel so defeated with the likelihood of another snowless December for many, yet I just realized it is still Fall for 11 more hours.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS would be the straw that breaks the camels back. with temps in the 40-50s. based on how we're going, I'll bet this is nearly a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Funny how we feel so defeated with the likelihood of another snowless December for many, yet I just realized it is still Fall for 11 more hours.. Will it start snowing hr 12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 Loving the models not pushing back the pattern change . Maybe by NYE? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 58 minutes ago, dryslot said: Will it start snowing hr 12? EDIT GDPS has you pretty icy by hour 170 .. maybe some freezing drizzle for SNE Christmas eve morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 21, 2023 Share Posted December 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: My wife has reminded me we should have installed an on-demand LP genny, but we bought a Honda 7000IS inverter few years ago. Was pricey, but runs like a champ. In eco mode, I'm getting about 14hrs on ~4gal or about 0.29gal/hr. At $3.11/gal, that's costing us $0.90/hr. If we were using LP at an avg 1gal/hr, that would be $3.75 based on most recent tank fill. I know there are lots of benefits to on-demand, but I can't see spending 8-10K on such a unit for the convivence. We went for the on-demand because we just got tired of camping out in our own house. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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