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October 2023


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Bright sunshine sent temperatures soaring to near record and record highs across the region. High temperatures included:

Albany: 77°
Atlantic City: 80° (tied record set in 1963)
Baltimore: 83° (old record: 81°, 1978)
Boston: 80°
Bridgeport: 74° (tied record set in 1963)
Hartford: 80°
Islip: 76° (old record: 75°, 1971)
New Haven: 74° (old record: 70°, 1948, 1963, and 2010)
New York City-Central Park: 77°
New York City-JFK Airport: 74°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 80° (old record: 76°, 1947 and 1963)
Newark: 82° (old record: 79°, 1963 and 1964)
Philadelphia: 80° (old record: 78°, 1920)
Poughkeepsie: 81° (tied record set in 1963)
Providence: 77°
Washington, DC: 78°

Tomorrow and Saturday will see a continuation of very warm weather. Readings will peak in the upper 70s and even lower 80s across parts of the region into southern New England.

A weak cold front will bring showers and somewhat cooler weather on Sunday. Monday will remain fairly mild, but much colder air will overspread the region late Monday or Monday night. Afterward, the coldest air of the season will cover the region to end October and begin November.

October is solidly on track to finish as a warmer than normal month. Since 1950, only a single El Niño event with a monthly ENSO R3.4 anomaly of +1.00°C or above was warmer than normal in New York City during October: 2015 (sample size: 6). If one lowers the ENSO R3.4 anomaly to +0.75°C or above, only two 2/12 (17%) of El Niño cases saw a warmer than normal October in New York City: 1963 and 2015. Both years saw warm Octobers followed by warm Novembers.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around October 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.57°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter. That transition is currently underway.

The SOI was -3.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.191 today.

On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.009 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.879 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3° (2.4° above normal).

 

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The last 5 days of October are averaging  60degs.(54/66) or +6.

Month to date is  60.6[+1.8].      October should end at 60.5[+2.5].

Reached 72 here yesterday from 5pm-8pm.

Today:  72-78, wind w., clouds variable, 65 tomorrow AM.

61*(76%RH) here at 7am.    62* at 9am.    67* at Noon.      69* at 1pm.   Reached 73* at 5pm.

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

windows open here next 2 days-might be last time until next spring

I would, but now with the leaves thinning out we can hear the Metro North train horns about half a mile away. Usually sleep right through it but sometimes it does wake me up since it is infrequent up this way. 

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26 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I would, but now with the leaves thinning out we can hear the Metro North train horns about half a mile away. Usually sleep right through it but sometimes it does wake me up since it is infrequent up this way. 

I'm 5 miles from their tracks here but when it's raining and the wind comes out of the S and E I can hear them.....

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67 cloudy. Some spotty showers.  Should get party cloudy / more sun by the afternoon.  Back to more sun Sat (10/28) and upper 70s / low 80s.   Showers/ clouds Sun(10/29) and Mon (10/30) as trough digs into the GL/MW and forces the front east.  Chill down 11/1 - 11/3 first frosts/freezes.  Moderate back to / above normal 11/4 - 11/7 before next cooldown 11/8.  Overall back and forth near normal once to the 5.

 

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 81 (1963)
NYC: 82 (1963)
LGA:  79 (1963)

Lows:

EWR: 27 (1936)
NYC: 28 (1936)
LGA: 33 (1976)


Historical:

 

1764 - A "very remarkable storm of snow with high winds" produced 22 inches at Rutland in central Massachusetts. (David Ludlum)

1929 - A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI, in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1962 - An early season winter storm over New England blanketed northern Maine with 7 to 16 inches of snow, and southeastern New England with up to 3 inches of snow. Worcester MA received a record 4.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain from Virginia to New York State. Fallen leaves made roads and sidewalks slick, and also clogged sewers. Rainfall totals of 1.55 inches at Newark NJ, 1.54 inches at Harrisburg PA, 1.27 inches at Scranton PA, and 1.22 inches at Atlantic City NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow and gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, and snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 47 mph at Lansing MI, and reached 55 mph at Pierre SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Wintry weather invaded the northwestern U.S. A storm crossing the Central Rockies produced up to 23 inches of snow in the mountains east of Salt Lake City UT. "Indian Summer" continued in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs of 71 degrees at Marquette MI and 72 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida.

 

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No records today-too cloudy

Yeah not the "warm" day advertised at all. Sure a mild late Oct day but relative to this week and the forecast its cool, breezy overcast day. Chilly if you dressed for 70s.

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On 10/25/2023 at 10:34 PM, Franklin0529 said:

Yea I was out on Monday an caught so many fish our arms were tired an went home. Some fish 40# an bigger. 

Anything you could keep? We won't go out at our age and crank til we die just to release everything. FTW, first they are too small to keep and now they are too big. We are close to just having it shut down again like the 80s. i do have a bonus tag.

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