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September 2023

Stormlover74

By Stormlover74,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Agree. Euro probably to far west but was the first to see it 

I am a bit disappointed in the Euro in recent years with regard to storm tracks. How a model goes from stellar performances with Sandy, Nemo, and Joaquin to the poor showing with Lee is hard to decipher. Plus it’s over amped bias at times makes it erratic. The suppression with the January 2016 record snowfall and too far west with January 2015 wasn’t very good.I know it’s the top rated model based on statistics, but not sure how that calculation is made when we see so many struggles with storm tracks in our area. 

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am a bit disappointed in the Euro in recent years with regard to storm tracks. How a model goes from stellar performances with Sandy, Nemo, and Joaquin to the poor showing with Lee is hard to decipher. Plus it’s over amped bias at times makes it erratic. The suppression with the January 2016 record snowfall and too far west with January 2015 wasn’t very good.I know it’s the top rated model based on statistics, but not sure how that calculation is made when we see so many struggles with storm tracks in our area. 

It’s definitely not what it use to be in years past. We have had it on our side several times the past few winters inside it’s 3-5 day wheelhouse. Unfortunately, it’s not that accurate in the medium range anymore. It has become very prone to big changes from run to run inside 5 days. It’s definitely the model I want in my side for a snowstorm but it’s just not as accurate anymore…

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted

Hmmm.... last two weeks not quite zero on action.

As posted just a bit earlier in this thread,  spot 4" Hud Valley Monday the 18th,  and EPS has quite a trough se USA last week of Sept that I didn't notice 24 hours ago... that would be wet and tropical plume if it were to occur.  Monitoring...  936A/16

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

 

61 / 51 and partly cloudy.  On the edgde of Lee's cloud sphere.  May get clearing in the next few hours working sw to ne.   Dry and clouds keeping it in the 60s/70s again especially in NENJ/NYC/LI, while C/S/W NJ near 80.  Sun (9/17) looking like a very pleasant day near normal.   Trough dig in and next shot at showers and rain Mon (9/18).  Could see >0.75 - 1.25 of rain.  Beyond there heights rise into the east but onshore flow keeps it a bit above normal for highs the next 5 - 7 days but warm min/ lows.  The Atlantic ridge is building west by at (9/23) and depending on how strong it is (over forecast much this summer) could be very warm finish or a warm / wet finish.

 

NJ Satellite Loop 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

 

Records:


Highs:

 

EWR: 95 (1991)
NYC: 93 (1915)
LGA: 95 (1991)

Lows:

EWR: 42 (1984)
NYC: 47 (1966)
LGA: 48 (1984)


Historical:

 

1752 - A great hurricane produced a tide along the South Carolina coast which nearly inundated downtown Charleston. However, just before the tide reached the city, a shift in the wind caused the water level to drop five feet in ten minutes. (David Ludlum)

 

1888: An estimated F2 tornado struck Washington, DC. The tornado first touched down on the south side of the city then moved up Maryland Avenue. The National Museum and Botanical Gardens were damaged before the tornado lifted off the ground.

1910 - Rains of .27 inch on the 14th and .73 inch on the 15th were the earliest and heaviest of record for Fresno CA, which, along with much of California, experiences a ""rainy season"" in the winter. (The Weather Channel)

 

1928: The Okeechobee Hurricane, also known as the San Felipe Segundo Hurricane was one of the deadliest hurricanes in the history of the Atlantic basin. This Hurricane made landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida as a Category 4 storm during the evening hours of the 16th. The storm surge caused water to pour out of the southern edge of Lake Okeechobee, flooding hundreds of square miles as high as 20 feet. This storm killed over 4,000 people, including 2,500 in Florida.

1939 - The temperature at Detroit MI soared to 100 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - A snowstorm over Wyoming produced 16.9 inches at Lander to esablish a 24 hour record for September for that location. (13th-15th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - The first snow of the season was observed at the Winter Park ski resort in Colorado early in the day. Eight inches of snow was reported at the Summit of Mount Evans, along with wind gusts to 61 mph. Early morning thunderstorms in Texas produced up to six inches of rain in Real County. Two occupants of a car drowned, and the other six occupants were injured as it was swept into Camp Wood Creek, near the town of Leakey. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in central and northeastern Oklahoma. Wind gusts to 70 mph and golf ball size hail were reported around Oklahoma City OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to parts of the central U.S. Rainfall totals of 2.87 inches at Sioux City IA and 4.59 inches at Kansas City MO were records for the date. Up to eight inches of rain deluged the Kansas City area, nearly as much rain as was received the previous eight months. Hurricane Gilbert, meanwhile, slowly churned toward the U.S./Mexican border. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain in the Central Appalachians. Virgie VA received 2.60 inches of rain during the evening hours, and Bartlett TN was deluged with 2.75 inches in just ninety minutes. Heavy rain left five cars partially submerged in high water in a parking lot at Bulls Gap TN. Thunderstorms over central North Carolina drenched the Fayetteville area with four to eight inches of rain between 8 PM and midnight. Flash flooding, and a couple of dam breaks, claimed the lives of two persons, and caused ten million dollars damage. Hugo, churning over the waters of the Carribean, strengthened to the category of a very dangerous hurricane, packing winds of 150 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)


2004: Hurricane Ivan turned northward over cooler waters, and made landfall in southern Alabama on September 16 as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane Ivan had a very unusual track almost making a huge circle. 

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

It’s definitely not what it use to be in years past. We have had it on our side several times the past few winters inside it’s 3-5 day wheelhouse. Unfortunately, it’s not that accurate in the medium range anymore. It has become very prone to big changes from run to run inside 5 days. It’s definitely the model I want in my side for a snowstorm but it’s just not as accurate anymore…

Yeah, the correction below is definitely what you want to see from a 3 run trend. But I would really like to know why the initial 102 hr forecast was so suppressed. There are people programming that model with some very advanced physics and math degrees. So it would be nice for one of them to join the forum and tell us what the  challenges are with East Coast storm tracks. Perhaps interactions between the polar Jet and Gulf Stream just are too hard for the state of the art technology to resolve. Maybe we can get luckier when the Euro upgrades to 4-5 km resolution and improves their convective schemes. And I hope AI can make some real advances with correcting model biases.

 

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Will - Rutgers

Will - Rutgers

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro's Sandy forecast is still one of the greatest modeling performances I've ever seen. 

i was a student at the time and just happened to seize upon that one storm and those model runs and was telling people for weeks we were in trouble

never did it before or since, my college friends thought i was a weather savant instead of a lucky weenie

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i was a student at the time and just happened to seize upon that one storm and those model runs and was telling people for weeks we were in trouble

never did it before or since, my college friends thought i was a weather savant instead of a lucky weenie

Same here. Except I was 28 

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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the correction below is definitely what you want to see from a 3 run trend. But I would really like to know why the initial 102 hr forecast was so suppressed. There are people programming that model with some very advanced physics and math degrees. So it would be nice for one of them to join the forum and tell us what the  challenges are with East Coast storm tracks. Perhaps interactions between the polar Jet and Gulf Stream just are too hard for the state of the art technology to resolve. Maybe we can get luckier when the Euro upgrades to 4-5 km resolution and improves their convective schemes. And I hope AI can make some real advances with correcting model biases.

 

Wonder if the data sparse upstream of the pacific plays a role.  Feb 21 air travel wasn’t back to normal levels, so I’m sure missing that data could have played a role to some extent. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Wonder if the data sparse upstream of the pacific plays a role.  Feb 21 air travel wasn’t back to normal levels, so I’m sure missing that data could have played a role to some extent. 

Yeah, but I have seen versions of this from the Euro since after its hot streak around the time of Sandy. Sometimes it seems to get locked into a suppression forecasting pattern with storms that correct west over time. On other occasions, it’s way too far west and amped up. So I am not sure what is going on. I always read the latest ECMWF reports on performance. But seldom do we see regional skill forecasts for an area like the East Coast. It’s always very generalized with hemispheric or continental skill scores. But there was one write up in the January 2015 storm which the Euro had too far west. The Northeast Corridor is the most densely populated part of North America. So generalized skill scores for much wider geographic areas don’t  tell the full story. Something seemed to happen with the model around one of the updates after Sandy.  

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WX-PA

WX-PA

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

It’s definitely not what it use to be in years past. We have had it on our side several times the past few winters inside it’s 3-5 day wheelhouse. Unfortunately, it’s not that accurate in the medium range anymore. It has become very prone to big changes from run to run inside 5 days. It’s definitely the model I want in my side for a snowstorm but it’s just not as accurate anymore…

Their running it 4 times a day, I wonder if that has anything to do with it. I remember the days it ran only once at 12z at it was super accurate then.

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