lee59 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Yea it's pretty gross out right now. I really enjoy the fresh cool air at night this time of year but I guess as the climate warms this will get pushed back even further into the month. Yea the cool nights are nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: farmingdale broke a record today but to be fair its period of record is short It was uncomfortable today to say the least. If some clouds didn't move in, my 91 could have been a 92 or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 15 minutes ago, lee59 said: It was uncomfortable today to say the least. If some clouds didn't move in, my 91 could have been a 92 or 3. I thought it was going to be a dry heat? Lots of 91/70s out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 man like when is it ever a dry heat it's almost always this shit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 9/5 EWR: 95 ACY: 94 PHL: 94 New Brnswck: 93 BLM: 93 JFK: 93 TEB: 93 NYC: 92 ISP: 91 TTN: 91 LGA: 90 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 4 hours ago, lee59 said: Temperatures in our area certainly are oppressive but not really extreme heat such as upper 90s. We will see what the next few days bring. Not a week or two ago people were talking about 90's being done with and no heat in the foreseeable future. The goal-posts have kept moving as we approached this heatwave. Not to mention, you don't need upper 90's this time of year for this to be considered "extreme." It's after Labor Day, and these days are easily +10 to +15. It feels no different than a mid-July night right now. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Cmc with some minor changes lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Pretty impressive overnight temperature @ 3am on September 6th. Current temp 77/DP 73/RH 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Day 2 Marginal Risk for NW areas. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Day 3 Marginal Risk for the NYC metro. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Currently 75F/DP 71/RH 95%, high of 92 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 73 here this morning. Looks like my 3rd day in a row with 90 plus. My second heat wave of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(74/89) or +10. Reached 93 yesterday with H.I. of 104. HW so far 92,91,93 here. Today: 92-96, wind n. to nw., few clouds, 77 tomorrow AM. 80*(84%RH) here at 7am. The 80 is the Low for day so far! 83* at 9am. 86* at Noon. 87* at 2pm. 90* at 3pm(H.I. is 97) 92* at 3:30pm(H.I. is 99) 93* at 4pm(H.I. is still 99) 95* at 5pm(H.I. is 105). Reached 97* at 6pm(H.I. was 107) 90* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Euro Yeah, the AI versions of the Euro have come further west also due to the stronger WAR than forecast. Figures the WAR would wait until September to finally put in a cameo this year. Plus any UL to our west could tug the storm even further west in later runs. Now we are back to the forecast bias of underestimating he WAR longer range only to correct stronger the closer in we get. This has been out pattern for years after a brief break over the summer. Figures it would be so difficult to sustain that for long with the record SSTs offshore. New run stronger WAR Old run weaker WAR 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Rainfall NYC metro, imo, probably ranges from 1/4" e tip LI to maybe spotty 6-8" nw NJ-nw CT/ne PA between Thursday evening the 7th and Wednesday evening the 13th, as modeling from vicinity Aug 30-31 continues excessive potential. This does not include the LEE interaction of Wed/Thu Sept 15-16, if its delayed that long. That interaction would probably be enhanced RRQ upper level jet se Canada and some packing of PW along the I95 corridor near CF, for a band of 6-12 hour potentially excessive... but that latter 9/15-16 still just a model suggested vision which adjusts in the future. In the meantime: probabilistic guidance probably not seen by many... but added here to show potential in GEFS guidance for SVR D1-8. Brown is very low prob but still notable for not discarding the possibility. I think this is useful for consideration. Have a hot enjoyable day. Walt 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the AI versions of the Euro have come further west also due to the stronger WAR than forecast. Figures the WAR would wait until September to finally put in a cameo this year. Plus any UL to our west could tug the storm even further west in later runs. Now we are back to the forecast bias of underestimating he WAR longer range only to correct stronger the closer in we get. This has been out pattern for years after a brief break over the summer. Figures it would be so difficult to sustain that for long with the record SSTs offshore. New run stronger WAR Old run weaker WAR It was only a matter of time before a major cane was integrated into the strong WAR/record SST pattern. Anyone thinking this will harmlessly recurve needs to reevaluate that strategy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It was only a matter of time before a major cane was integrated into the strong WAR/record SST pattern. Anyone thinking this will harmlessly recurve needs to reevaluate that strategy It’s all about the progression of model forecasts and seasonal trends. Always a bit uncertain as to when a seasonal trend will end and we go back to the long term pattern. I will give new AI model forecasts at ECMWF credit from a few days ago for seeing the stronger WAR ahead of the OP. Tomorrow may be the first time in a while that the warmest temperature of the year occurs in September. Someone in NJ could hit 100° which would be one of the latest instances in the season if they could pull it off. AI models at ECMWF brush the Cape this run. https://charts.ecmwf.int/catalogue/packages/ai_models/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 11 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: man like when is it ever a dry heat it's almost always this shit and no T-storms on the map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Hot town (late) summer in the city. Classic look - no pesty clouds or random energy 850 MB temps >17c - 19c. The heat is on. Record highs for many. I think today tops Thu due to clouds coming later Thu, should thet be delayed then Thu also get / mid and upper 90s. Not sure we get the century mark but wouldnt shock me. Last one in Newark was 1993. Trough slow to move through pumping southerly flow with loads of moisture so we'll see how much storms and rain come through Thu - Sun. Beyond there dry out Mon later / Tue before back with next trough/ front the middle of next week 9/13. Then all eyes on Lee but suspect the W Atlantic Ridge anchored enough to keep things interesting LI/NE timing is 9/15 - 9/17. IN the wake of Lee should see a cooler NW flow before an overall warmer than normal final 1/3 of the month. Whether or not there is more late heat will depend on ridge position later in the month. Hot fun in the summer - heat , tropics fun fun fun till the daddy takes the W.A.R away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 59 minutes ago, Rjay said: Euro It would be hard to believe if this held true this far out? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Just 5 years ago records highs in the upper 90s EWR: 98 (2018) NYC: 97 (1881) LGA: 96 (2018) JFK: 92 (1985) TTN: 99 (1983) PHL: 95 (2018) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Dark Star said: It would be hard to believe if this held true this far out? The 9/6 00Z ECM control which goes to 360 has an east of cape cod track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2018)NYC: 97 (1881)LGA: 96 (2018) Lows: EWR: 48 (1938) NYC: 48 (1924) LGA: 53 (1988) Historical: 1667: The “dreadful hurricane of 1667” is considered one of the most severe hurricanes ever to strike Virginia. On the first, this same storm was reported in the Lesser Antilles. The hurricane devastated St. Christopher as no other storm had done before. The "great storm" went on to strike the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Area crops (including corn and tobacco) were beaten into the ground. 1776: Called the Pointe-à-Pitre hurricane, this storm is one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes on record. While the intensity and complete track are unknown, this storm struck Guadeloupe on this day, killing 6,000. 1881 - Forest fires in Michigan and Ontario resulted in 'Yellow Day' in the northeastern U.S. Twenty villages in Michigan burned, and a total of 500 persons were killed. Fires caused 2.3 million dollars in losses near Lake Huron. Candles were needed at the noon hour. (David Ludlum) 1881: Forest fires in “The Thumb” of Michigan and Ontario resulted in “Yellow Day” over the New England states. Twenty villages and over a million acres burned in Michigan. The smoke from these fires caused the sky to appear yellow over several New England cities. Twilight appeared at noon on this day. 1929 - Iowa's earliest snow of record occurred as a few flakes were noted at 9 AM at Alton. (The Weather Channel) 1933: The remnant low of the Treasure Coast Hurricane dumped 10.33" of rain in Charleston, which is the second-highest 24-hour rainfall total on record for the downtown station. The storm produced wind gusts of 51 mph and also spawned a tornado near the city. 1987 - Thunderstorms produced more than seven inches of rain in Georgia. Four persons drowned, and two others suffered injury, as three couples attempted to cross Mills Stone Creek at Echols Mill in their automobile. Smoke from forest fires in California and Oregon spread across Utah into western Colorado. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the north central and northeastern U.S. Thirty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Joseph MO with a reading of 38 degrees. A low of 44 degrees at Indianapolis IN was their coolest reading of record for so early in the season. The mercury dipped to 31 degrees at Hibbing MN and Philips WI. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - An early afternoon thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 104 mph at Winterhaven, FL, flipping over four airplanes, and damaging five others. The high winds also damaged a hangar and three other buildings. A cold front produced strong winds and blowing dust in the Northern High Plains, with gusts to 54 mph reported at Buffalo SD. Powerful Hurricane Gabrielle and strong easterly winds combined to create waves up to ten feet high along the southern half of the Atlantic coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 It was a disgusting 80 degree's at 550am when i left for work this morning. Just disgusting out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 What exactly is the AI Euro model? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 what a beautiful morning 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: What exactly is the AI Euro model? It’s AI algorithm incorporated into the model. This was release about 2 months ago, as I recall. https://charts.ecmwf.int/catalogue/packages/ai_models/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06185-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2023 Author Share Posted September 6, 2023 Dews might drop below 70 Sunday morning otherwise we have to wait til Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2023 Share Posted September 6, 2023 29 minutes ago, forkyfork said: what a beautiful morning As you sit in your air conditioned office/house... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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