Intensewind002 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: 1938 LI Express Hurricane : https://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome Okx actually just put up an updated overview of the hurricane https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/4028d00ea6b44fd8890ba6592c15a544 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 12z RGEM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Nice cool low of 48 this AM. I’ve been running about 6-7 degrees below forecasted lows for the TR station, where I am tucked into the Manchester border of TR radiates extremely well and is the northern edge of the pine lands. Sandy soil percs incredibly fast compared to the clay mix up north. Helps sink those temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM If this trend continues the NYC metro will have to worry about severe weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 I’m more worried about severe flooding if that finger of heavy rain sets up shop over NJ. 4-6” over 36 hours is going to push many areas to the limit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: I’m more worried about severe flooding if that finger of heavy rain sets up shop over NJ. 4-6” over 36 hours is going to push many areas to the limit. For me high tides will be a huge problem with on shore winds backing up the hackensack river. Coupled with heavy rains, we'll have some severe flooding in low lying areas where i live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 13 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: I’m more worried about severe flooding if that finger of heavy rain sets up shop over NJ. 4-6” over 36 hours is going to push many areas to the limit. Yeah that swath of heavy rain either side of the delaware river is showing up on many of the models The coast will probably get dry slotted for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: UKIE Wet That's the GFS. Ukie isn't out yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: That's the GFS. Ukie isn't out yet. my bad I deleted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: my bad I deleted it. Now its out and pretty suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Now its out and pretty suppressed yeah gets almost nothing here.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Now its out and pretty suppressed toss 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 uk may be just ahead of the icon as the worst model..these days.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 thru 72 hours - once sunday is added next run should see 3+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Yesterday I was hoping the east trend would continue, but the CMC has been so consistent and everything else also gives us a big soaking. UKMET is a crazy model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: Ugh... On the upside, today is spectacular! Get out and do something As perfect as it gets today. Mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 40s. It sucks that the weekend is gonna be a washout, but spending a lot of time outside today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yesterday I was hoping the east trend would continue, but the CMC has been so consistent and everything else also gives us a big soaking. UKMET is a crazy model. Unless the euro jumps I think the ukie is out to lunch. I remember in the Feb 2021 storm it did this 2 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Unless the euro jumps I think the ukie is out to lunch. I remember in the Feb 2021 storm it did this 2 days out it jumped all over the place before jan 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 The only saving grace is that the rain at least for Saturday morning/afternoon looks to be progressive. We will have to see if the convection that the 3k NAM has for Saturday evening comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Euro looks like UKMET-struggles to get precip inland from the initial wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Euro looks like UKMET-struggles to get precip inland from the initial wave Jeez euro has been waffling back and forth . Not good for winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Just now, Brian5671 said: Euro looks like UKMET-struggles to get precip inland Suppressing flow coming from the north as well via the Canadian ridge. Still the question of whether the tropical low cuts N or NNW from the Carolina coast or is shoved east because of the suppressing flow over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 It's really not like the ukie though. Most see at least 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Suppressing flow coming from the north as well via the Canadian ridge. Still the question of whether the tropical low cuts N or NNW from the Carolina coast or is shoved east because of the suppressing flow over New England. We all get more rain Sunday as the decaying low moves up through the delmarva...so will be a question of 2 waves and how much from each wave... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's really not like the ukie though. Most see at least 1" It’s not….2-4 inches around the metro 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's really not like the ukie though. Most see at least 1" Yeah it still ends up a nice soaking even though the significant rain can't get too far northwest on saturday, thanks to rain continuing on sunday. There's definitely a signal from some models for significant rain struggling to get well to the north and west on saturday. Even on the RGEM our heaviest rain comes sunday morning. Saturday is gonna be a wet day, but it's possible that it's just a moderate amount of rain for our area (heavier at the coast) with our heavier rain coming sunday. But of course there are some models that get the heavier rain up here saturday, so who knows. Still will be a little while before we know the details, but overall the weekend is a big washout with a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah it still ends up a nice soaking even though the significant rain can't get too far northwest on saturday, thanks to rain continuing on sunday. There's definitely a signal from some models for significant rain struggling to get well to the north and west on saturday. Even on the RGEM our heaviest rain comes sunday morning. Saturday is gonna be a wet day, but it's possible that it's just a moderate amount of rain for our area (heavier at the coast) with our heavier rain coming sunday. But of course there are some models that get the heavier rain up here saturday, so who knows. Still will be a little while before we know the details, but overall the weekend is a big washout with a lot of rain. Yeah the nam really seems to be focusing on the heavy stuff coming in early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 12z HMON hurricane model is a real soaker for Saturday night into Sunday. Not sure about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 May be time to get this into separate subject... now that NHC has it as a disturbance eventually turning out to near the benchmark. I won't be able to do anything with this after 4P and for me probably needs another ensemble cycle (00z/22). I sure hope this isn't another (as in the 7th-14th of Sep) non watch FFW situation for PHL/NYC metro areas this weekend. General stream flow potential is low but it seems to me that 6 hr FFG for ne NJ is under 2"= vulnerable. Monitoring 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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