USCG RS Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, HKY_WX said: It's probably a bit premature to judge the Eye size. Eye is still clearing out/obscured and looks slightly elliptical on radar. I'd wait a few more hours to see how it matures. Thanks for weighing in. It is always nice to be able to learn from those who are the professionals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 37 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: When is the next recon scheduled? Kinda surprised they are not overlapping them. There is both an AF flight, and a NOAA flight in Idalia right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Eye is also kind of a bizarre ellipse. Not sure what to make of that Not actually, as been mentioned earlier there’s been mesovortices rotating around the eye at times. When that happens the eye will appear ragged/rugged but it’s actually not a deterioration. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: On a trip from Alaska to Hawaii on a 180 foot Coast Guard cutter we ran into a storm that was producing 50 foot waves. The ship was rolling so bad you had to tie yourself into your rack to keep from getting tossed out. Even 23 foot seas is no joke. Wasn't it Ivan that produced a 100 foot swell? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Not actually, as been mentioned earlier there’s been mesovortices rotating around the eye at times. When that happens the eye will appear ragged/rugged but it’s actually not a deterioration.We're also at nearly 15k ft beam from Tampa. The mesos are going to stand out more. We can't see the lower vort precip in the LLC of the eyewall. It may be circular given closer range. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Perhaps this is banter, but figured folks here might know the answers to this. I've always found it odd that the NHC will only do forecast predictions at 12 hour intervals, thus often "missing" key data points, like landfall -anyone know the rationale for that? Just look at the 5 pm advisory, which had a forecast for the storm to be up to 115 mph by 2 am tomorrow. However, due to the idiosyncracies of the NHC forecasts, the next published point is 2 pm tomorrow, after landfall when the storm is forecast to be at 85 mph. I don't know why, in situations like this, the NHC doesn't publish intermediate forecasts, i.e., at landfall around 8-9 am tomorrow along the Big Bend area. It's true that their discussion does say, "The 12-hour intensity forecast shows a 100-kt (115 mph) major hurricane. It is imperative to realize that Idalia is expected to continue strengthening beyond that time, possibly close to the 110 kt (125 mph) shown in the previous forecast, before the center reaches land," but how many people are reading the 5th paragraph down in the discussion vs. looking at the track graphics. Another pet peeve - why don't they put the windspeeds on the 12 hour timepoints on the track forecast instead of the inexact S, H, and M designations? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Not actually, as been mentioned earlier there’s been mesovortices rotating around the eye at times. When that happens the eye will appear ragged/rugged but it’s actually not a deterioration. I disagree. While mesovorts are likely present and can warp the edge of the eye to a degree, think there really is an ellipse. My best guess is due to asymmetry in the convective bursts that we've seen tonight. There's typically only 1 burst ongoing at a time while the other side of the hurricane is "quiet". Not 100% on that one tho and curious to other input if people have it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 00z spaghetti models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Any one of these in the outer bands could become tornadic: 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Any one of these in the outer bands could become tornadic: I haven't been following there severe threat. Anything show up worth mentioning today on that topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said: I haven't been following there severe threat. Anything show up worth mentioning today on that topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 New center dropsonde says 961 mb. Northeast quad wind is only 92 kts flight level, 80 kts SFMR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: New center dropsonde says 961 mb. Is that another 4mb drop in like 2 hours? WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 10:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29Location: 27.4°N 84.6°WMoving: N at 18 mphMin pressure: 960 mbMax sustained: 110 mph updated advisory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: That tracks given the 10pm advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 00z spaghetti models Nearly unanimous Taylor County landfall centered on ~9AM EDT. Then it tracks go mainly just inland from Savannah, which is about the worst possible track in terms of winds. Also, high tide there is an astronomical high tide due to perigee and full moon and it's at 8:30PM, which is near the time of the center being closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 000WTNT65 KNHC 300157TCUAT5Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone UpdateNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020231000 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT......CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES INLAND...NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicatethat Idalia has strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The minimum pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft has fallen to 960 mb (28.35 inches).The National Hurricane Center has begun hourly position and intensity updates on Idalia. The hourly updates will continue as long as Idalia's eye is easily trackable in ground-based radar data.SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...27.4N 84.6WABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDAABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day. Yeah I was thinking about Dennis, great analog to reference. Inner structure almost a carbon copy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The eye does appear to be a little small given the size of the CDO. This usually indicates that there will be an ERC at some point. Only about 8 to 10 hrs before landfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 hour ago, Master of Disaster said: There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? I could be wrong but I *think* recon found N-S elliptical eye 12 km x 8 km. EDIT- I think it is 12 nm x 8 nm. Quote G. E18/12/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day. yeah thats a nice comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 recon says 957.6mb on the minute-by-minute plot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Thinking we got an EWRC going on 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 17 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Thinking we got an EWRC going on Yea, TWC said the same. Take 'em down on max intensity if that is indeed the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Thinking we got an EWRC going on Don't think you can call it that yet. Still clear evidence that the band is spiraling inward and some of the "moat" is probably from very strong convection in the northern semicircle of the eyewall. I've noticed this a few other times tonight. If that outer band continues to gain substance then maybe though I think we're probably a few hours from that minimum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, hlcater said: Don't think you can call it that yet. Still clear evidence that the band is spiraling inward and some of the "moat" is probably from very strong convection in the northern semicircle of the eyewall. I've noticed this a few other times tonight. If that outer band continues to gain substance then maybe though I think we're probably a few hours from that minimum. I’m 50/50 on it. Recon hasn’t really found a double wind maxima. But man radar looks moaty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, Tezeta said: I’m 50/50 on it. Recon hasn’t really found a double wind maxima. But man radar looks moaty. It did for a few scans but it has since filled in and the outer band continues to spiral inwards, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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