Looking to the skies Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I think there will be a path through S Ga akin to like Ivan did in S Al in 2004. We were in BayMinette then and from there through Atmore, Monroeville and points N he ripped it up good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, Master of Disaster said: IR now shows the eye clearing out. Can see it on satellite imagery too. Pinhole eye, so I anticipate based on previous major canes that feature pinhole eyes…a period of rapid and steep pressure falls are near. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 When is the next recon scheduled? Kinda surprised they are not overlapping them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 There’s a few mesovortices rotating around the eye, not something we typically see with Category 3 hurricanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 This 18z Euro track is meterological chicken if I've ever seen it -- I mean it basically trucks due north until the very last second, then it gets pulled NE, then it kind of turns back NNE. That's going to make for some tense radar-watching in the morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Can see it on satellite imagery too. Pinhole eye, so I anticipate based on previous major canes that feature pinhole eyes…a period of rapid and steep pressure falls are near. Definitely happening right now as we speak and will likely continue between now and say landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I do think she'll keep strengthening until landfall. Not enough time for an EWRC. Cat 4 isn't out of the question 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 To be a fly on the wall of Tallahassee WFO right now. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 First of a few tornado watches:https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0660.html. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Castaway said: Start’n to whistle. I wonder how much turnover in the bath water it’ll do. If by chance, another hurricane were to track through in the similar area here. And how long it would prohibit RI on the next would be storm within the next weeks. From what I remember not long. Just a random quick thought. From this morning to now, it has been an impressive display to watch. Up in the big bend, shelf and water depths are relatively shallow compared to the rest of the gulf. If this was moving slow, it’d churn up a good bit of the OHP. In this case, not as much with the storms forward speed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, beanskip said: This 18z Euro track is meterological chicken if I've ever seen it -- I mean it basically trucks due north until the very last second, then it gets pulled NE, then it kind of turns back NNE. That's going to make for some tense radar-watching in the morning. ~15 mile SE change in track vs 12Z Euro. Landfall still in Taylor county but central rather than NW. Entire track inland is similarly shifted slightly SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Idalia is making pretty pictures. I'm glad it is not going up Tampa Bay as we were concerned about yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO. It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet. And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide. The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Mello said: The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO. It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet. And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide. The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours. What else would it be then? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, Mello said: The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO. It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet. And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide. The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours. You felt the need to announce that talking about a pinhole eye is premature but will likely be correct in an hour? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I'm liking this- a huge gap between spiral bands. Surprising but figure the longer the better , keep power on. Thinking now the strongest winds will be on the backside. Water surge around Cedar Key 15', that is insane and will wipe the countryside clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Latest radar scans clearly show a well definied eye has emerged. Here in Orange County things look to be trending towards low impact. Tornado watch is just to our West. No rain here since intense squall 4 hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Radar looks pretty classic. Only difference is the eyewall doesn't have that ring of fire look you see in high end cat 4 and 5. Can she make it before running out of water? We'll see. Cat 3 is pretty much a given at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Sanibel had its strongest gust of the day just now. Winds are picking up here in Pinellas County, still sub-TS for sure. It appears Idalia has a tail that will whip us late tonight and tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: What else would it be then? A pretty normal sized eye that's still in the process of clearing out in an intensifying hurricane. Pretty sure hurricane Delta in 2020 was the last Atlantic hurricane with a real pinhole eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 18z UKMET has like the 18Z Euro shifted its landfall 15 miles SE along with the remaining SE US track. The 12Z UK landfall was in C Taylor Cty and the 18Z is in S Taylor Cty. Also, 18Z landfalls 2.5 hours sooner (7:30AM) vs 10AM on 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? I'm measuring radius of about 6 miles at an altitude of about 16k feet per TBW radar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? About 12 mi wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 7 minutes ago, Mello said: A pretty normal sized eye that's still in the process of clearing out in an intensifying hurricane. Pretty sure hurricane Delta in 2020 was the last Atlantic hurricane with a real pinhole eye. I believe the difference on radar and IR imagery is where the deep convection has wrapped. The deep convection is beginning to swirl the hurricane and the IR is showing where the physics of the beast is setting up. The eye that has cleared out is pinhole. It is concerning that IR Imagery is showing that, despite the fact that radar has not quite caught up. If radar is able to catch up, well really, if the thunderstorms themselves are able to wrap tightly around the eye as to where it is cleared out then we are going to have a potentially catastrophic situation on our hands. I don't use catastrophic lightly either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 It's probably a bit premature to judge the Eye size. Eye is still clearing out/obscured and looks slightly elliptical on radar. I'd wait a few more hours to see how it matures. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2023 Author Share Posted August 30, 2023 Eye is also kind of a bizarre ellipse. Not sure what to make of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 58 minutes ago, GaWx said: I see 1896 and 1950 but not 1985 for Cedar Key landfall: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1985.png My source was the wikipedia entry for Cedar Key and they state that 1985 Elena stayed offshore but still generated a damaging storm surge that had a major impact on the town (so no landfall). Also 2020 Eta came in around Cedar Key but damage was slight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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