August 2023

[SACRUS]

 

72 / 52 and very nice out.   Low 80s next two days with loads of sun and a N/NE flow keeping the heat shielded 350 miles away.  Flow comes back around Thu (8/24) into the weekend with a bit more humid.  Clouds and showers  those days will keep temperatures down. Beyond that clearing out by the coming Mon (8/28) with temps near normal to cloud out the month.

Trough looks to split and caught in between with active tropics targeting the SE.  Elusive ridging trying to hint on latest guidance into early September.  

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 94 (1983)
NYC: 95 (1916)
LGA: 93 (2019)


Lows:

EWR: 51 (1982)
NYC: 52 (1895)
LGA: 55 (1982)

Historical:

 

1816 - The growing season for corn was cut short as damaging frosts were reported from North Carolina to interior New England. (David Ludlum)

 

1893: Four hurricanes are observed in the Atlantic Ocean at the same time. Over a century would pass, 1998 before four hurricanes would again rage together in the Atlantic.

1923 - The temperature at Anchorage, AK, reached 82 degrees, a record for August for the location which was later tied on the 2nd in 1978. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front lowered temperatures 20 to 40 degrees across the north central U.S., and produced severe thunderstorms in Ohio and Lower Michigan. An early morning thunderstorm near Sydney MI produced high winds which spun a car around 180 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Afternoon highs of 88 degrees at Astoria, OR, and 104 degrees at Medford, OR, were records for the date, and the number of daily record highs across the nation since the first of June topped the 2000 mark. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms in the central U.S. produced golf ball size hail at May City IA, and wind gusts to 66 mph at Balltown IA. Lightning struck a barn in Fayette County IA killing 750 hogs. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Havre. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992 - Hurricane Andrew makes landfall in Southern Florida as a Category 5 storm with wind guests estimated in excess of 175 m.p.h. Estimated damages exceeded $20 billion, more than 60 people were killed and approximately 2 million people were evacuated from their homes. (University of Illinois WW2010)

 

1994: Hurricane John, about 345 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii had winds of 175 mph and pressure at 920 millibars or 27.17 inches of mercury, making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever in the Central Pacific. The 31-day existence made John the longest-lasting tropical cyclone recorded in both the Pacific Ocean and worldwide, surpassing both Hurricane Tina's previous record in the Pacific of 24 days in the 1992 season and the 1899 San Ciriaco hurricane's previous world record of 28 days in the 1899 Atlantic season. John was also the farthest-traveling tropical cyclone in both Pacific Ocean and worldwide, with distance traveled of 7,165 miles, out-distancing previous record holders Hurricane Fico in the Pacific of 4,700 miles in the 1978 season and Hurricane Faith worldwide of 6,850 miles in the 1966 Atlantic season.

[SACRUS]

00z Euro with a storm into FL Panhandle next THu and up the coast after that.  

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

did you  forecast a surge of heat last half of august a week ago?

Its a very toasty 73 degrees.  Yes most guidance at that point and seeing a 600 DM ridge in that spot 9/10 leads to a heat surge even into the NE.  But it became apparent the ridge would focus heat just south and west of the area despite one day by the middle of last week.    That ridge will move right back into the Rockies seasonal tendencies are strong this season.  Will they break into early Sep would be the next question or is the focus on tropics.

[Stormlover74]

The nams bring in rain early on thursday now and last most of the day particularly west of the city

Euro waits til Friday morning

Rgem much drier

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Its a very toasty 73 degrees.  Yes most guidance at that point and seeing a 600 DM ridge in that spot 9/10 leads to a heat surge even into the NE.  But it became apparent the ridge would focus heat just south and west of the area despite one day by the middle of last week.    That ridge will move right back into the Rockies seasonal tendencies are strong this season.  Will they break into early Sep would be the next question or is the focus on tropics.

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 

168 hr forecast

verification

 

 

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from  last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 

168 hr forecast

verification

 

 

It was the complete opposite last winter.  The ridge was also modeled too weak a week in advance only to trend stronger.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 

168 hr forecast

verification

 

 

As you said a few months ago, blocking is really the only time now we get sustained normal to below temps. 
 

The last cold stretch without blocking was probably December 2017 with the poleward pna ridge 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It was the complete opposite last winter.  The ridge was also modeled too weak a week in advance only to trend stronger.

I am hoping we can have some blocking carryover into the winter like some of the other years with near record summer blocking. But it’s tough to know for sure until the winter actually starts.

 

[winterwx21]

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The nams bring in rain early on thursday now and last most of the day particularly west of the city

Euro waits til Friday morning

Rgem much drier

12z RGEM has a rainy friday. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z RGEM has a rainy friday. 

Yeah 12z came in wetter but still dry Thursday unlike the nams

[Allsnow]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah 12z came in wetter but still dry Thursday unlike the nams

Euro dry for Thursday now 

[Morris]

Just amazing weather for the summer. 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Morris said:

Just amazing weather for the summer. 

Yup. Doesn't get much better.  

[Brian5671]

Windows open no AC running it's great.

[forkyfork]

can't wait for winter

 

[Stormlover74]

75 on Christmas eve. Bank on it

[MJO812]

Beautiful outside 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

75 on Christmas eve. Bank on it

Last year was brutally cold

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Last year was brutally cold

Our 3 day winter was 12/23-26

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Our 3 day winter was 12/23-26

We had a winter last year? 

[doncat]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Our 3 day winter was 12/23-26

Actually it was a 5 day winter lol... Feb 3rd and 4th.

[bluewave]

 

[Rtd208]

Take with a grain of salt but the 18z NAM is pretty wet for the area late week. Have to see if that continues as we move closer.

Edit: The 18z GFS is also coming in a bit wetter just not to the extent of the NAM.

[SnoSki14]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping we can have some blocking carryover into the winter like some of the other years with near record summer blocking. But it’s tough to know for sure until the winter actually starts.

 

Our summer based on that chart should have been much cooler than what we're seeing

It just goes to show how much we've warmed over the past decade. 

[donsutherland1]

A prolonged stretch of cooler than normal readings will continue through at least the weekend.

In the long-range, it remains more likely than not that ridges will wax and wane over the central and southern U.S., producing more heat in areas that have seen a lot of it this summer. If that idea holds, the Northeast will likely only see some short-lived periods of warmer or much warmer than normal temperatures through at least the first week or two of September.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around August 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.17°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was -14.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.452 today.

On August 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.747 (RMM). The August 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.560 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal).

 

[Poker2015]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Our 3 day winter was 12/23-26

I remember too well, most of my town had no power for 3 days...including Christmas!!

[psv88]

AC on the fritz. Luckily it’s a cool night. 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Our summer based on that chart should have been much cooler than what we're seeing

It just goes to show how much we've warmed over the past decade. 

This should have been a 95 esque summer. Humidity in new climate ruined that

[Brasiluvsnow]

" Dog Days Of August ?????????? "