August 2023

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

not as devastated as you will be when january is +7. also how did we get a top ten warm july if heat has no staying power

one of the coolest summers in recent memory and very wet.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

one of the coolest summers in recent memory and very wet.

On par with 2017 and 2014 for Long Island but well above a really cool summer like 2009.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 17	Missing Count
2023-08-17	72.7	0
2022-08-17	74.1	0
2021-08-17	73.1	0
2020-08-17	74.7	0
2019-08-17	74.1	0
2018-08-17	73.4	0
2017-08-17	72.3	0
2016-08-17	74.1	0
2015-08-17	72.8	0
2014-08-17	72.8	0
2013-08-17	73.5	0
2012-08-17	73.5	0
2011-08-17	74.3	0
2010-08-17	75.1	0
2009-08-17	69.5	0

[forkyfork]

48 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

one of the coolest summers in recent memory and very wet.

"in recent memory" is doing a lot of heavy lifting

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

"in recent memory" is doing a lot of heavy lifting

yes new normal is record hot every month 

[Rjay]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

"in recent memory" is doing a lot of heavy lifting

It's one of the coolest top 10 warmest summers of all time.  

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

you can apply that logic to any month that doesn't finish at exactly 0

Those high DPS in January did us in last year

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's one of the coolest top 10 warmest summers of all time.  

Einstein was right. It’s all relative. . A 14th warmest summer average temperature at Islip so far feels much cooler than all the top 5 warm recent years.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 17	Missing Count
1	2010-08-17	75.1	0
-	1999-08-17	75.1	0
3	2020-08-17	74.7	0
4	2011-08-17	74.3	0
5	2022-08-17	74.1	0
-	2019-08-17	74.1	0
-	2016-08-17	74.1	0
6	1994-08-17	73.6	0
7	2013-08-17	73.5	0
-	2012-08-17	73.5	0
-	2008-08-17	73.5	0
8	2018-08-17	73.4	0
9	2005-08-17	73.3	0
-	1988-08-17	73.3	0
10	2006-08-17	73.2	0
-	1991-08-17	73.2	0
-	1966-08-17	73.2	0
11	2021-08-17	73.1	0
12	2002-08-17	73.0	0
-	1995-08-17	73.0	0
13	2015-08-17	72.8	0
-	2014-08-17	72.8	0
-	1980-08-17	72.8	0
14	2023-08-17	72.7	0

[kat5hurricane]

6 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep Allsnow got a lot of rain but we just missed it. Only .13 here. Like you said it's no big deal since we've had plenty of rain.

Looking forward to the beautiful weekend with very low humidity. One rare hot day on monday, and then more beautiful low humidity weather with temps only in the low 80s tuesday through thursday. What an August we're having. 

The best August that I can remember. Beautiful weekends, lots of nice weekdays, just enough rain mixed in and a couple of great thunderstorms depending where you are. Seems like the next week will be more of the same, perfect for outdoor activities.

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Einstein was right. It’s all relative. . A 14th warmest summer average temperature at Islip so far feels much cooler than all the top 5 warm recent years.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 17	Missing Count
1	2010-08-17	75.1	0
-	1999-08-17	75.1	0
3	2020-08-17	74.7	0
4	2011-08-17	74.3	0
5	2022-08-17	74.1	0
-	2019-08-17	74.1	0
-	2016-08-17	74.1	0
6	1994-08-17	73.6	0
7	2013-08-17	73.5	0
-	2012-08-17	73.5	0
-	2008-08-17	73.5	0
8	2018-08-17	73.4	0
9	2005-08-17	73.3	0
-	1988-08-17	73.3	0
10	2006-08-17	73.2	0
-	1991-08-17	73.2	0
-	1966-08-17	73.2	0
11	2021-08-17	73.1	0
12	2002-08-17	73.0	0
-	1995-08-17	73.0	0
13	2015-08-17	72.8	0
-	2014-08-17	72.8	0
-	1980-08-17	72.8	0
14	2023-08-17	72.7	0

this year should be in the bottom half with other nino onset seasons

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this year should be in the bottom half with other nino onset seasons

august 1997 at ewr was -2.8. august 1982 was -3.9

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this year should be in the bottom half with other nino onset seasons

The planet has warmed so much since those top 10 coolest El Niño onset summers of days past. 
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 17	Missing Count
1	1964-08-17	68.6	0
2	1965-08-17	68.8	0
3	1992-08-17	69.0	0
4	1979-08-17	69.3	0
-	1972-08-17	69.3	0
5	2009-08-17	69.5	0
6	1982-08-17	69.6	0
-	1968-08-17	69.6	0
7	1978-08-17	69.8	0
8	1996-08-17	69.9	0
9	2004-08-17	70.0	0
10	1985-08-17	70.2	0

 

 

[forkyfork]

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

yes new normal is record hot every month 

not even the daily temperature trace is a smooth line. why would you expect that on a climatological scale?

[bluewave]

We normalize the record warmth fairly quickly. So when we have temperatures cooler than those years, it feels cooler relative to the warmer years. It’s one of the reasons that climate change doesn’t interest as many people compared to other issues. 
 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190225170252.htm

Tweets tell scientists how quickly we normalize unusual weather

Study: 'Remarkable' weather becomes normal within a few years

Date:

February 25, 2019

Source:

University of California - Davis

[forkyfork]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We normalize the record warmth fairly quickly. So when we have temperatures cooler than those years, it feels cooler relative to the warmer years. It’s one of the reasons that climate change doesn’t interest as many people compared to other issues. 
 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/02/190225170252.htm

Tweets tell scientists how quickly we normalize unusual weather

Study: 'Remarkable' weather becomes normal within a few years

Date:

February 25, 2019

Source:

University of California - Davis

that's true but this board supposedly has people who pay attention to weather stats

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that's true but this board supposedly has people who pay attention to weather stats

This is a great place for weather stats. But much of the world doesn’t pay attention to the details like we do here. So people rapidly normalize a changing climate and miss the perspective and context of the changes. Plus the migration patterns in the US are toward warmer climates. So many are fine with mild and snowless winters and would be happier if they lived year round in places like Florida. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Einstein was right. It’s all relative. . A 14th warmest summer average temperature at Islip so far feels much cooler than all the top 5 warm recent years.
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 17	Missing Count
1	2010-08-17	75.1	0
-	1999-08-17	75.1	0
3	2020-08-17	74.7	0
4	2011-08-17	74.3	0
5	2022-08-17	74.1	0
-	2019-08-17	74.1	0
-	2016-08-17	74.1	0
6	1994-08-17	73.6	0
7	2013-08-17	73.5	0
-	2012-08-17	73.5	0
-	2008-08-17	73.5	0
8	2018-08-17	73.4	0
9	2005-08-17	73.3	0
-	1988-08-17	73.3	0
10	2006-08-17	73.2	0
-	1991-08-17	73.2	0
-	1966-08-17	73.2	0
11	2021-08-17	73.1	0
12	2002-08-17	73.0	0
-	1995-08-17	73.0	0
13	2015-08-17	72.8	0
-	2014-08-17	72.8	0
-	1980-08-17	72.8	0
14	2023-08-17	72.7	0

24th warmest summer by year.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves through the region. New York City will see readings in the lower 60s. The nearby suburbs could see the mercury dip into the 50s. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Monday will be unseasonably warm before cooler air returns.

Meanwhile Hilary remains on track to bring a historic rainfall to parts of the California desert into Nevada tomorrow night through Monday. Highest rainfall amounts could reach 6"-10". It is possible that Death Valley's storm total rainfall could exceed its highest monthly total.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +3.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.091 today.

On August 16 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.090 (RMM). The August 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.132 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (0.9° below normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

78/52. It's spectacular outside

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, lee59 said:

24th warmest summer by year.

It’s better to dense rank weather statistics since the actual ranking is based on temperature and not the year. This is how the NWS NY out in Upton ranks their top temperature and precipitation records. 

https://www.sqlservertutorial.net/sql-server-window-functions/sql-server-dense_rank-function/

[nycwinter]

already feels chilly inside going to be a comfy blanket night...

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

78/52. It's spectacular outside

someone put me in a coma until may

[MJO812]

62 will be the low tonight

Beautiful 

[lee59]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s better to dense rank weather statistics since the actual ranking is based on temperature and not the year. This is how the NWS NY out in Upton ranks their top temperature and precipitation records. 

https://www.sqlservertutorial.net/sql-server-window-functions/sql-server-dense_rank-function/

I know this discussion has been made before. I agree it's the 14th highest temperature. I also think when it comes to ranking it still is the 24th highest year. Not really that important, it was a better summer than many recently but just pretty much normal temperature wise.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

not as devastated as you will be when january is +7. also how did we get a top ten warm july if heat has no staying power

Just give me a 3' storm and the winter can torch as much as it wants

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

I know this discussion has been made before. I agree it's the 14th highest temperature. I also think when it comes to ranking it still is the 24th highest year. Not really that important, it was a better summer than many recently but just pretty much normal temperature wise.

Close to normal for the much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals.  But warmer than average for the previous 30 year normals. So NOAA and the NCDC are inadvertently doing their part to normalize the warmer climate like the public does. Very difficult to use 30 year normals in such a rapidly warming climate. They worked better when the climate was more stable. 
 

 

[nycwinter]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

not as devastated as you will be when january is +7. also how did we get a top ten warm july if heat has no staying power

nights were very warm to hot daytime not so much..

[psv88]

Incredible outside. 

[Maureen]

52 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

someone put me in a coma until may

On the way

[psv88]

this is why I couldn’t live in Florida. They don’t get nights like this until November. 

[TriPol]

A bit a breeze with current temp around 78 degrees. 35% humidity, 50 degree dew point. It feels gorgeous outside.