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July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month


Typhoon Tip
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The question is... how summery will it be?  

June left something for warm/season enthusiasts to be desired.  But not as bad as some may think ... (speaking to the straw man ).  Monthly mean as of this morning, June 30, were only very modestly cooler than normal, as provided by NWS' interactive online resource ( https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=box) ...

ALB, (omitting decimals) -1 F

-.4 for ORH. 

-.9 for HFD. 

BOS was -2 and PVD was -4.   Boston(Logan), I suspect was more a result of a persistent on-shore flow anomaly. Providence may also have a combination of SEterly anomalies, together with instrumentation issues.

As a very brief op-ed, climate change affects our 'acclimation curves' ... Basically, we perceive months that are actually not that too terribly far from normal, as being more negative than they really were - because we are over the longer span now more prepared/bias to 'feeling' a certain way in our common experience.   I find this sort of an interesting psychological hypothesis for how weather and climate impacts perception...

Anyway, looking at July ... the canonical warmest week of the year is this month ... roughly centered on the 21st.   The next week to two weeks look different than where we've been. There is still a tendency to oscillate between troughs and ridging, but the troughs are not stagnating as much per guidance trends and other indicators ( ..the latter of which won't get read if this is written too long ).  Just adding that the entire synoptic framework is also situating higher in geopotential hgt depths, which doesn't lend to CAA events very readily. Much of this should result warmer than normal, and more humid ... but it is unclear how extreme either will be - pistol to head, not very extreme with the temperature side for the time being.

There is some hints that more important heat will materialize toward the end of the first week and throughout the 2nd week, but it's just hinted. 

 

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One upshot to this next week or two is that having the ambient summer front sort of wobbling around the eastern continent at our latitude should service occasional convection chances... And severe or just mundane, notwithstanding.  This may offer some episodes of entertainment that way. 

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to July has arrived ... the Meteorologically defined mid summer month

Trying to plan a camping trip and the windows of opportunity for halfway decent weather don't look promising over the next couple weeks. Think we'll shoot for end of July-beginning of August when hopefully things have changed a bit. Long range GFS painting blue pixels over N Quebec already...summer's almost over. ;) 

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32 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Trying to plan a camping trip and the windows of opportunity for halfway decent weather don't look promising over the next couple weeks. Think we'll shoot for end of July-beginning of August when hopefully things have changed a bit. Long range GFS painting blue pixels over N Quebec already...summer's almost over. ;) 

You joke but I've noticed living in New England for a long time that the apex of the growing season is always right about now. From here we head downhill.

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22 minutes ago, kdxken said:

You joke but I've noticed living in New England for a long time that the apex of the growing season is always right about now. From here we head downhill.

a couple weeks until we get our highest average  temps.. then back downhill 

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46 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Very flat peak here.  Warmest daily mean is late July but from July 10 thru August 10 the average is within 1° of that peak.

Do you have any experience with oak leaf tier? I have thousands of moths flying around and am wondering if they'll be a big outbreak next year . Thanks in advance...

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Do you have any experience with oak leaf tier? I have thousands of moths flying around and am wondering if they'll be a big outbreak next year . Thanks in advance...

I'm not familiar with that insect.  I'd recommend a search to find out how they overwinter, and if that might be a time to control, or at least have a guess for populations the next growing season.

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48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Might actually get some drier weather in here than it looked earlier.

Euro flipped from very wet for multiple days to much better outdoor weather up north between the 6z and 18z runs.

Favorable shift south.

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I see nothing "favorable" about that trend.

 

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Managed upper 70s, then copious debris clouds from the Ontario and Quebec storms blowing up moved in along with the ever present smoke. Close the shades until Wednesday. May forego plans and go back to AZ early if this pattern keeps up.

 

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1 minute ago, Saguaro said:

Managed upper 70s, then copious debris clouds from the Ontario and Quebec storms blowing up moved in along with the ever present smoke. Close the shades until Wednesday. May forego plans and go back to AZ early if this pattern keeps up.

 

New England - Where folks go for ass holiday weekends.

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