July 2023

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I have a very specific definition of hot month and hot year.

10 90+ degree highs in a month = hot month

30 90+ degree highs in a year = hot year

We can use LGA for this calculation since NYC is obviously compromised

 

It’s always going to be easier getting high 90° day counts further from the shore like we saw last summer.

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	50
Philadelphia Center City Area	ThreadEx	50
PHILADELPHIA INTL AP	WBAN	48
Philadelphia Area	ThreadEx	48
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT	WBAN	43
HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP	WBAN	42
LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT	COOP	41
NORRISTOWN	COOP	40

 

 for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	49
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	49
Newark Area	ThreadEx	49
CANOE BROOK	COOP	47
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	46
HARRISON	COOP	44
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	43
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	43
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	42
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	41
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	40

 

 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, dWave said:

That north wind brining the colder ocean temps back to the surface. Big difference from before.

Thats fine lol.  Northerly winds eventually give us dry heat too.

Same with westerly winds.

 

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s always going to be easier getting high 90° day counts further from the shore like we saw last summer.

Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE	COOP	50
Philadelphia Center City Area	ThreadEx	50
PHILADELPHIA INTL AP	WBAN	48
Philadelphia Area	ThreadEx	48
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT	WBAN	43
HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP	WBAN	42
LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT	COOP	41
NORRISTOWN	COOP	40

 

 for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	53
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	49
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	49
Newark Area	ThreadEx	49
CANOE BROOK	COOP	47
SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	46
HARRISON	COOP	44
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	43
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	43
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	42
ESTELL MANOR	COOP	41
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	40

 

 

The disparity has gotten worse over the last few decades though.

Is there a way to compare the years through the 90s vs what has happened since?

It seems like the disparity between inland vs coastal 90 degree days has increased markedly

 

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The disparity has gotten worse over the last few decades though.

Is there a way to compare the years through the 90s vs what has happened since?

It seems like the disparity between inland vs coastal 90 degree days has increased markedly

 

Probably due to the higher pressure east of New England turning the flow more onshore since 2015.  Newark has had 3 top 5 years for 90s since then. JFK hasn’t had any top 5 years since then. JFK needs westerly flow for a high number of 90° days. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	32	0
2	1983	26	0
3	2002	21	0
4	1971	18	0
-	1949	18	0
5	2005	17	0
-	1991	17	0

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, readings topped out in the upper 70s and lower 80s today. Fair and pleasant days coupled with low humidity will continue through at least midweek. No significant hot weather appears likely through the first week of August.

The extreme heat event that has gripped the Southwest for four weeks is concluding. Phoenix reached 110° for the 31st consecutive day a short time ago, but will likely stay below 110° tomorrow through Tuesday. However, the respite appears likely to be short-lived. As has often occurred in areas witnessing prolonged sieges of heat in recent years, extreme heat will likely rebuild later in the week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.00°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased.

The SOI was +8.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.120 today.

On July 28 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.304 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.374 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal).

 

[Violentweatherfan]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this weather is dreadful. thankfully it won't last too long

I hope so too, want some heat and humidity to return. 

[psv88]

Incredible day. Lots of storm damage in Suffolk yesterday. Severe delivered. 
 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, their average minimum was around +3 warmer this month than the next warmest low temperature July set back in 2020.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2023	63.1	2
2	2020	59.9	0
3	1947	59.5	0
4	2018	59.4	0
5	2010	59.2	0

These 1991-2020 normals aren't doing us any favors in showing the reality of climate change. I see so many comments here and on X implying it hasn't been a hot summer. 

Here is an example:

Here is an example from the NWS, providing "perspective" on the heat:

 

The implication of maps like these is that it's been a fairly normal summer with warm anomalies and cool anomalies roughly evening out. The reality is the map posted in the thread I linked to above shows a departure for June and July of +0.45F above the 1991-2020 mean. Obviously, these are unofficial values. 

If NCEI has the same departure, this would be the 20th warmest June & July period on record (out of 129 years). If we exclude 21st century data, and limit this to the 1895-2000 period (106 years), there are only seven hotter years - 1936, 1934, 1933, 1931, 1988, 1921, and 1952. So four dust bowl years, one of the worst droughts on record, and a couple of notoriously hot summers (including one during the 1950s drought period).

We're running hotter nationally than notoriously hot years like 1995, 1991, 1999, 1983, 1953, 1954, etc... Heat was a front page item in these years. Why do people think there's too much coverage of the heat? Make no mistake about it, before the advent of widespread artificial cooling, there would be thousands of deaths in years like this.

If the NWS outlook for August verifies (which is showing warmer than average temperatures across probably 80% of the CONUS), I think we will be looking at a top 10, or certainly top 15, hottest summer on record nationally. Might even be top 5 if you exclude years in the 21st century.

[nycwinter]

7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

These 1991-2020 normals aren't doing us any favors in showing the reality of climate change. I see so many comments here and on X implying it hasn't been a hot summer. 

Here is an example:

Here is an example from the NWS, providing "perspective" on the heat:

 

The implication of maps like these is that it's been a fairly normal summer with warm anomalies and cool anomalies roughly evening out. The reality is the map posted in the thread I linked to above shows a departure for June and July of +0.45F above the 1991-2020 mean. Obviously, these are unofficial values. 

If NCEI has the same departure, this would be the 20th warmest June & July period on record (out of 129 years). If we exclude 21st century data, and limit this to the 1895-2000 period (106 years), there are only seven hotter years - 1936, 1934, 1933, 1931, 1988, 1921, and 1952. So four dust bowl years, one of the worst droughts on record, and a couple of notoriously hot summers (including one during the 1950s drought period).

We're running hotter nationally than notoriously hot years like 1995, 1991, 1999, 1983, 1953, 1954, etc... Heat was a front page item in these years. Why do people think there's too much coverage of the heat? Make no mistake about it, before the advent of widespread artificial cooling, there would be thousands of deaths in years like this.

If the NWS outlook for August verifies (which is showing warmer than average temperatures across probably 80% of the CONUS), I think we will be looking at a top 10, or certainly top 15, hottest summer on record nationally. Might even be top 5 if you exclude years in the 21st century.

you use to have hundreds of deaths in the south every summer before ac became widespread

[nycwinter]

as we head into august i can see the light at the end of the tunnel summer is waning...

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

These 1991-2020 normals aren't doing us any favors in showing the reality of climate change. I see so many comments here and on X implying it hasn't been a hot summer. 

Here is an example:

It hasn’t been hot across a large portion of the mid US. But there has been record heat along the edges from Maine to Arizona and Florida. The individual rankings tell a more complete story since the 1991-2020 climate normals are so warm compared to previous 30 year intervals. Many places can approach top 10 warmth these days by just going +2 against these warmer normals. I guess the U.S is getting off relative easy this month compared to the rest of the planet.

 

 

[uofmiami]

To add from Ryan Maue met summer to date:

[bluewave]

The July average minimum temperatures have the highest rankings around the edges with a cool spot in the middle.

https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php?date=2023-07-20&var=avgt&thresh=climper&period=MTD&map_display=rank&showthrdx=true&region=conus#
 

 

 

[lee59]

I would say summer in my area has not been bad. Yes July has been warm but June was comfortable. August will tell the tale.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I would say summer in my area has not been bad. Yes July has been warm but June was comfortable. August will tell the tale.

We could have used that June Hudson Bay block during January or February.
 

[TheClimateChanger]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The July average minimum temperatures have the highest rankings around the edges with a cool spot in the middle.

https://sercc.oasis.unc.edu/Map.php?date=2023-07-20&var=avgt&thresh=climper&period=MTD&map_display=rank&showthrdx=true&region=conus#
 

 

 

Yes, low temperatures have been absolutely scorching in many places. Everybody likes to focus on the high temperatures, but to me the humidity and excessively warm low temperatures are worse than extreme high temperatures and lower humidity. The focus is always on temperature, but if dew points and temperatures are both climbing - which appears to be the case - then apparent temperatures are probably climbing at a rate two or three times faster.

It used to cool off into the 50s regularly where I am from, and now it seldom drops below 60. There used to be July evenings where a hoodie would be appropriate because it was already in the low 60s by 9 or 10 pm, with morning lows in the 40s. Obviously the exception, not the rule. But those days simply do not happen anymore. 

[TheClimateChanger]

The rankings themselves are kind of misleading, because there are a lot of places on there in 5th, 6th position, but all of the higher years are just within the past 10 years. Just 15 years ago, many of those red areas would probably be maroon.

[lee59]

19 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The rankings themselves are kind of misleading, because there are a lot of places on there in 5th, 6th position, but all of the higher years are just within the past 10 years. Just 15 years ago, many of those red areas would probably be maroon.

Another thing with rankings (and I don't know how it plays out with these rankings) if a month has, for example, the fifth highest temperature, it could still be out of the top ten warmest months if, for example, 6 months were tied for a higher number turning the 5th highest temperature into the 11 highest month. Having said that, there is no doubt in my mind we see far more above normal months rather than below normal months.

 

[Roger Smith]

Ranking tables normally account for ties and the case mentioned would be 11th warmest, after five tied at 6th warmest. It would not or at least should not be ranked seventh warmest. Some tables including CET differentiate by second decimals not visible in the table. The apparently tied months are marginally separated by these unprinted second decimals. In some ranking tables, it is up to you to establish ties, the table may be printed without ties identified. Most commonly, that kind of table will have the tied years listed in chronological order. 

But with everyone tweeting their own versions of climate stats, it is wise to find out whether they respect conventional ranking protocols or not. Also a top ten from a record of thirty years is obviously a bit easier to establish than a top ten from 155 years like NYC or 183 like Toronto. 

Another source of minor confusion in at least one prominent set of ranks (CET) is the practice of leaving the warmest rank blank until it happens, for example, this is what you see if you click on monthly ranks for CET ... at the bottom of the rankings where they place the warmest months, you find 1st (ranks on right, the ranks on left are in the sense of coldest of 355 in their records) blank for July to December ... further up the table you need to remember that what appears to be 40th warmest August is actually 39th warmest August. 

(EXCERPT of CET monthly rankings)

 

   355     6.5  1686     6.9  1961     8.0  2022    10.2  1796    13.5  1868    16.4  1818    18.4  1808    18.0  1990    15.6  1780    12.5  1968     8.9  1881     7.3  1857    10.6  1990    11
   356     6.6  1898     6.9  2019     8.1  1734    10.2  1944    13.5  1919    16.6  1775    18.4  2013    18.1  1955    15.6  1999    12.6  1959     9.1  1817     7.3  1988    10.6  1999    10
   357     6.7  2008     6.9  2022     8.2  1750    10.3  1987    13.5  1947    16.8  1858    18.5  1995    18.2  1911    15.7  1760    12.7  1831     9.2  2022     7.4  1843    10.6  2017     9
   358     6.7  1983     7.0  2002     8.2  1961    10.3  1893    13.5  1784    16.9  1798    18.5  1921    18.3  1747    16.0  1795    12.7  1995     9.2  1730     7.4  1828    10.6  1949     8
   359     6.8  1975     7.1  1903     8.3  1990    10.3  2014    13.6  1992    16.9  1976    18.6  1976    18.3  2003    16.0  2021    12.8  1921     9.3  1743     7.5  1710    10.7  2018     7
   360     6.9  1733     7.1  1945     8.3  1948    10.3  1798    13.6  1727    16.9  1762    18.7  1852    18.6  1947    16.1  2016    12.8  2022     9.4  1938     7.6  1733    10.7  2011     6
   361     7.0  2007     7.2  1794     8.4  2012    10.5  1943    13.7  1808    17.0  2023    18.8  1783    18.6  1975    16.3  1949    12.9  2006     9.4  2015     7.7  1852    10.8  2020     5
   362     7.1  1834     7.2  1998     8.4  1997    10.5  2020    13.8  1788    17.1  1822    19.2  2018    18.7  2022    16.3  1865    13.0  2005     9.5  1818     7.9  1974    10.9  2006     4
   363     7.3  1796     7.3  1990     8.8  2017    10.6  1865    13.8  1758    17.3  1826    19.4  1983    19.0  1997    16.6  1729    13.1  1969     9.5  2011     8.1  1934    11.0  2014     3
   364     7.3  1921     7.5  1869     9.1  1938    11.3  2007    13.9  1848    18.0  1676    19.8  2006    19.1  1995    16.9  2006    13.2  2001     9.9  1994     9.6  2015    11.1  2022     2
   365     7.6  1916     7.9  1779     9.2  1957    11.9  2011    15.1  1833    18.2  1846     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     ---  2023     1

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

7/30

 

EWR: 83
ACY: 82
BLM: 81
New Brnswck: 81
TEB:  81
JFK: 81
PHL: 81
LGA:  80
NYC: 80
TTN: 79
ISP: 78

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

I would say summer in my area has not been bad. Yes July has been warm but June was comfortable. August will tell the tale.

Yeah we didn't use the AC once in June, which I'm not sure has happened before.

Pretty crazy how today feels though.  Not only low dews, but 50's tonight.  You could convince me it was the first week of September if the calendar still didn't say July.

[SACRUS]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably due to the higher pressure east of New England turning the flow more onshore since 2015.  Newark has had 3 top 5 years for 90s since then. JFK hasn’t had any top 5 years since then. JFK needs westerly flow for a high number of 90° days. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	54	0
2	2022	49	0
-	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0

 

 

 

 

That 2022 tally should be 50. Believe youre missing the 90 in Sep.

[JerseyWx]

4 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

just so glad this weather has returned without all the smoke it came with last time

I hope it stays that way.  So nice seeing deep blue skies again and the mountains in the distance aren't hazy.

[psv88]

62 already 

[bkviking]

In Smithtown I had a low of 56°. It has to be years since it was this cool in midsummer around here. 

[CIK62]

The last day of July is averaging    77degs.(69/86) or Normal.

Month to date is   79.2[+1.7].      July should end at   79.1[+1.5].

Reached 85 here yesterday at 7pm.

Today:    81-85, wind w., few clouds, 69 tomorrow AM.

69*(60%RH) here at 7am.    71* at 8am.        75* at Noon.     77* at 1pm.   Reached  80* at 2pm.       77* at 6pm.

[SnoSki14]

We hit 57F in Somerset. More 50s likely next couple days. Maybe some mid-low 50s too. 

[steve392]

58 degree's a crystal clear morning.  

[ForestHillWx]

58 here, progged for 53 tomorrow night. 

[LoboLeader1]

58 here for overnite  low. Topped out at 75F yesterday.