TriPol Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Another round of rain and storms on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 There's some real heat potential to end the month but will it verify. GFS has a massive CONUS wide 594-600+ ridge that would result in widespread 95+ temps if not 100+ readings over a large chunk of the country including us. Combine that with high dews and it's a recipe for disaster 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 8 hours ago, winterwarlock said: Why the heck is rain now in the forecast for Wednesday Models truly blow Yeah what is this..I woke up and it's a whole new forecast, or am I getting my days mixed up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 9 hours ago, Allsnow said: It seems odd that ewr has hit 100 several times while these other major stations haven’t done it once in the past 11 years Downtown Philly has made to 100° numerous times in recent years. But the airport lags by a few degrees since it’s in the marshy area along the Delaware with slightly cooler breezes on S to SW flow. Very few westerly flow heat events in recent years which the airport needs for 100° heat. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Center City Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 94 184 2 2022 99 2 3 2021 100 2 4 2020 99 115 5 2019 100 14 6 2018 101 25 7 2017 98 1 8 2016 99 7 9 2015 97 0 10 2014 96 2 11 2013 99 1 12 2012 101 0 13 2011 104 3 14 2010 103 1 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2023 95 166 2022 99 0 2021 97 0 2020 97 0 2019 98 0 2018 98 0 2017 96 0 2016 98 0 2015 96 0 2014 96 0 2013 98 0 2012 101 0 2011 103 0 2010 103 0 The airport has only averaged 36 days reaching 90° since 2010 vs 42 days in the city center. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 6 15 9 3 0 36 2022 0 3 5 19 19 2 0 48 2021 0 3 9 10 15 0 0 37 2020 0 0 5 21 10 0 0 36 2019 0 1 4 18 8 3 1 35 2018 0 1 4 11 10 4 0 30 2017 0 3 6 11 4 2 0 26 2016 0 3 5 16 17 5 0 46 2015 0 1 7 10 12 7 0 37 2014 0 0 3 11 3 2 0 19 2013 0 3 4 12 0 1 0 20 2012 0 2 7 21 8 1 0 39 2011 0 3 5 21 4 0 0 33 2010 0 2 15 19 12 7 0 55 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for Philadelphia Center City Area, PA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 3 8 17 12 4 0 42 2022 0 2 6 21 19 2 0 50 2021 1 5 11 17 16 3 0 53 2020 M M M 20 13 1 0 34 2019 0 2 6 21 14 5 1 49 2018 0 5 6 14 19 7 0 51 2017 0 3 8 14 10 3 0 38 2016 0 5 7 16 21 4 0 53 2015 0 2 9 10 14 7 0 42 2014 0 1 6 13 4 5 0 29 2013 1 2 6 14 3 1 0 27 2012 0 2 6 21 8 2 0 39 2011 0 3 6 20 4 0 0 33 2010 1 2 16 18 11 5 0 53 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(72/88) or +2. Month to date is 79.6[+2.3]. Should be 79.7[+2.2] by the 27th. Reached 82 here yesterday. Today: 78-82, wind variable, cloudy, Rain 4pm?, 72 tomorrow AM. 73*(85%RH) here at 7am. 72* at Noon. 79* at 3pm. 82* at 4pm. 83* at 4:30pm(H.I. of 90) 84* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Looks like some of the inland areas could see some pleasant nighttime temperatures coming up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 75 / 73 storms and more heavy rain passed through this morning. Mostly cloudy but should see more breaks by noon. Warm , humid mid - upper 80s, perhaps 90 in the hot spots. Thu (7/20) a drier day warm and still humid with scattered storms mid 80s. Fri (7/21) front will bring more widespread storms. Cloudy, and ome more soakers. Sat (7/22) - Tue (7/25) drier times and cool back near normal with less humidity. Wouldnt rule out some showers or storms on Sun or Tue (7/26). 7/25 and beyond the Western ridge is building into the central US and the trough over the northeast is lifting or splitting as the expanding Western Atlantic Ridge builds heights along the east. The sw flow will bring in hot weather with stronger pieces of the heat into the area to end the month on a very hot note. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 .15 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 12 hours ago, winterwarlock said: Why the heck is rain now in the forecast for Wednesday Models truly blow I remember looking at the CMC 4 days ago and it showed a significant batch of rain moving through today. I was surprised because all the other models had it dry, but we've certainly seen this before. Sometimes the CMC does a good job picking up on things that other models miss in the medium range. It's an underrated model. Looking at radar you can see the bigger batch of steady rain is missing us just to the south, but there will be some scattered showers and downpours up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Mosquitoes out in full force today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 19, 2023 Author Share Posted July 19, 2023 21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I remember looking at the CMC 4 days ago and it showed a significant batch of rain moving through today. I was surprised because all the other models had it dry, but we've certainly seen this before. Sometimes the CMC does a good job picking up on things that other models miss in the medium range. It's an underrated model. Looking at radar you can see the bigger batch of steady rain is missing us just to the south, but there will be some scattered showers and downpours up here. And tomorrow looks dry now like it was originally showing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 16 hours ago, qg_omega said: Nothing impressive there, 90 is the new normal hotter trends on all the models last night. thank you so much 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 40 minutes ago, forkyfork said: hotter trends on all the models last night. thank you so much my body has acclimated to the heat so 95 will not bother me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. Some locations could experience a shower or thunderstorm. Afterward, the remainder of the week and weekend will be mainly dry. An extreme heat event continues to grip the Southwest. Cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Tucson could see readings continue to rise toward or above their record daily levels over the next few days. Today's highlights included: Austin: 107° (tied record set in 1918 and tied in 1923) Cotulla: 109° (old record: 107°, 2022) Del Rio: 108° (old record: 106°, 2018) El Paso: 109° (old record: 106°, 1980) Imperial: 117° (tied record set in 2009) Phoenix: 118° (old record: 115°, 1989) ***Record 19th consecutive 110° or above day*** Roswell: 111° (old record: 107°, 2019) ***Tied July record*** San Angelo: 110° (old record: 107°, 1989 and 2022) ***6th 110° or above day, which doubles the old record of 3 from 1944*** San Antonio: 104° (tied record set in 1918) Tucson: 112° (old record: 109°, 1989 and 1992) ***Record-tying 10th 110° or above day The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around July 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -13.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.465 today. On July 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.288 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.407 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.2° (1.7° above normal). Austin tied their record of most 105+ degree days in a row yesterday and will likely exceed it quite a bit since there’s no end to the hot pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Pouring in little ferry, nj. Wasn't expecting rain... Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Austin tied their record of most 105+ degree days in a row yesterday and will likely exceed it quite a bit since there’s no end to the hot pattern. So many records are being set. El Paso has blown its record for 100+ degree days out of the water (33 and counting). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: So many records are being set. El Paso has blown its record for 100+ degree days out of the water (33 and counting). Prob faulty temp sensors or too much pavement 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Been hearing about big heat for the last 6 weeks...not much in reality to date...kind of like the big cold/snow that's coming after a warm Dec/Jan... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Pouring at Jones beach currently, really starting to make up for the dry stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Been hearing about big heat for the last 6 weeks...not much in reality to date...kind of like the big cold/snow that's coming after a warm Dec/Jan... Yes, at least the next week or so looks pretty much normal, even some cool nights inland. Those cool nights will feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: hotter trends on all the models last night. thank you so much What is hotter? You live in a humid tropical like climate now with a temperature between 85 and 95. Rarely more, rarely less. And it all feels very similar: a sticky, buggy, shitty mess. The 100s you want are as elusive as sub 20 degree winter days now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Just now, the_other_guy said: What is hotter? You live in a humid tropical like climate now with a temperature between 85 and 95. Rarely more, rarely less. And it all feels very similar: a sticky, buggy, shitty mess. The 100s you want are as elusive as sub 20 degree winter days now Can you fly him to Texas on your next flight? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: What is hotter? You live in a humid tropical like climate now with a temperature between 85 and 95. Rarely more, rarely less. And it all feels very similar: a sticky, buggy, shitty mess. The 100s you want are as elusive as sub 20 degree winter days now we used to get summers where 90 was a struggle 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 is everyone pretending this region isn't +2 or higher this month? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 brrrr 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 Absolutely pouring on Ocean Parkway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 0.01” of rain here, most of it looks to miss to the south but i can maybe squeeze out 0.2-0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 do any climate change deniers want to tell us that's not a heat signal? lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 19, 2023 Share Posted July 19, 2023 congrats LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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