June 2023

[FPizz]

23 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Warning for somerset and Hunterdon 

That brought some thunder here, but only .08"

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs trending more unsettled again for us as well. 

This could have been a good pattern with winter wavelengths.

 

 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Probably the strongest +AMO signature that we have ever seen.

 

Been watching the NW Atlantic cool for several weeks now and pretty rapidly I might add.  Not hearing much if anything about it from other sources.  Very impressive chart. 

[nycwinter]

could not have gone any better for those who do not like the heat in the nyc area..-me. it is even better then i expected..

[nycwinter]

even forky has not posted as much as he would if we had a hot and humid pattern...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Been watching the NW Atlantic cool for several weeks now and pretty rapidly I might add.  Not hearing much if anything about it from other sources.  Very impressive chart. 

It’s been the persistent trough and lack of SE Ridge causing the cooling.

[doncat]

Still just 0.91" for the month so far after 0.91" in May.

[Stormlover74]

54 minutes ago, doncat said:

Still just 0.91" for the month so far after 0.91" in May.

If the gfs is right we get drenched to end the month

[Rtd208]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If the gfs is right we get drenched to end the month

Yeah the 18z GFS looks much wetter beginning next weekend. We'll see how things play out.

[SACRUS]

 

6/18

EWR: 85
ACY: 84
New Brnswck: 83|
BLM: 83
PHL: 83
TEB: 82
JFK: 82
TTN: 81
LGA: 80
ISP: 80
NYC: 80
 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow will be another fair day. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through at least Friday. Warmer conditions could begin to develop during the following weekend, but there is considerable uncertainty.

Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included:

Austin: 106° (old record: 105°, 2011)
Corpus Christi: 96°
Cotulla: 111° (old record: 108°, 2011)
Del Rio: 111° (old record: 106°, 2011) ***Missed June and all-time record by 1°***
Falcon Lake: 117° (old record: 109°, 2017) ***New all-time record***
Houston: 99°
Junction: 105° (tied record set in 2011)
Laredo: 108°
San Angelo: 102°
San Antonio: 103°
Zapata: 112° (old record: 106°, 1998)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -26.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.105 today.

On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.013 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.408 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

[psv88]

Today was a perfect day. Can’t write it better than this. 
 

Lloyd Harbor around 6 pm

 

[Rtd208]

Things look pretty wet going forward. Plenty of showers/thunderstorms beginning late week and beyond. The rest of the month as a whole looks much wetter. We'll see what happens.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    74degs.(66/82) or near Normal.

Month to date is   68.5[-1.5].      Should be     70.2[-1.0] by the 27th.

Reached 84 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:    78-82, wind e., variable clouds, 65 tomorrow AM.

68*(70%RH) here at 7am{was 67 at 6am}.     70* at 8am.      72* at Noon.       Back to 70* at 1pm.      73* at 3pm.       77* at 4pm.     78* at 5pm.

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Things look pretty wet going forward. Plenty of showers/thunderstorms beginning late week and beyond. The rest of the month as a whole looks much wetter. We'll see what happens.

Starting Friday 

[SACRUS]

72/60 and mostly sunny.  Likely the sunniest / driest day in the  next 8 or 9.  Low mid 80s.  Clouds and some spotty showers Tue (6/20) and Wed (6/21) should keep temps in the 70s.  Ridge builds from Southern Plains /TX into the Gl and southern Canada and weakness closes off into the Carolinas. A strong onshore flow develops Tue - Thu (6/22)Maritime (June gloom).

Fri (6/23) - Thu (6/29) transition from our Southern California climate to a more humid as flow goes southerly and daily chances of popup (slow moving ) storms.  As a whole the 7 days should get the are upwards of 2 inches of rain but areas with drenchers could exceed 4 inches.  When the sun pop out it heats up quickly with 850s > 16C and southerly flow.

 

Beyond there front looks to clear by the end of the month and bring in the warmer /hotter weather to open the month.  Tendency for troughing into the east till then as the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west.  Do we have a 2006, 2012  / 2013 style summer shaping up?

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 102 (1994)
LGA: 97 (1994)
NYC: 98 (1994)


Lows:

EWR: 53 (1954)
NYC: 52 (1920)
LGA: 56 (2022)

Historical:

 

1794: A violent tornado commenced west of the Hudson River in New York. The tornado traveled through Poughkeepsie then crossed the border into Connecticut where it went through the towns of New Milford, Waterbury, North Haven, and Branford. It then continued into Long Island Sound. The tornado did extensive damage, and the funnel was reported by one observer to look like the "aurora borealis."

1835 - A tornado tore through the center of New Brunswick NJ killing five persons and scattering debris as far as Manhattan Island. The tornado provided the first opportunity for scientists to study firsthand the track of such a storm. (David Ludlum)

1938 - A cloudburst near Custer Creek, MT, (near Miles City) caused a train wreck killing forty-eight persons. An estimated four to seven inches of rain deluged the head of the creek that evening, and water flowing through the creek weakened the bridge. As a result, a locomotive and seven passenger cars plunged into the swollen creek. One car, a tourist sleeper, was completely submerged. (David Ludlum)

1972 - Hurricane Agnes moved onshore near Cape San Blas FL with wind gusts to 80 mph, and exited Maine on the 26th. There were 117 deaths, mainly due to flooding from North Carolina to New York State, and total damage was estimated at more than three billion dollars. Up to 19 inches of rain deluged western Schuylkill County PA. The rains of Hurricane Agnes resulted in one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history. Agnes caused more damage than all other tropical cyclones in the previous six years combined (which included Celia and Camille). (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was a warm June day, with plenty of thunderstorms east of the Rockies. Lightning knocked out power at Throckmorton, TX, and ignited an oil tank battery. A woman in Knox City TX was struck by lightning while in her car, and a man was struck by lightning near his home in Manatee County FL. Strong thunderstorm winds overturned several outhouses near Bixby OK, but no injuries were reported. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the central U.S. for Father's Day. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Severe thunderstorms in Minnesota and Wisconsin produced softball size hail near River Falls WI, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Menomonie WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as searing heat spread from the southwestern deserts into the High Plains Region. Record highs included 98 degrees at Billings, MT, 107 degrees at Valentine, NE, and 112 degrees at Tucson, AZ. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - What would eventually be known as the "Inland Hurricane" stuck south central Kansas. This storm system produced a swath of 65 to 120 mph winds across six counties and caused $80 million dollars in damage. The peak recorded wind gust was 116 mph, which reaches low-end category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind intensity scale. On the enhanced Fujita Scale the 116mph winds would be rated an EF2. The storm knocked out power to all the Wichita TV stations, and they were off the air for hours. All but one of the Wichita Radio Stations, including the Wichita NOAA Weather Radio Station KEC-59, was knocked off the air. (National Weather Service Wichita)

 

2006 - Up to 11 inches of rain fell in the Houston, Texas area, causing widespread flash flooding. The Houston Fire Department rescued more than 500 people from flood waters, but no serious injuries or fatalities were reported.

[vegan_edible]

please tell me we'll actually see the sun this summer. this gloomy stuff can go whenever. 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

please tell me we'll actually see the sun this summer. this gloomy stuff can go whenever. 

I see sun right now

[CIK62]

The GFS shows how to end the month with normal precipitation as it catches up to where it should be by ruining a whole week.

Last week it had all 90's starting the 22nd.---as I pointed out.     Now its all Wet.  

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

please tell me we'll actually see the sun this summer. this gloomy stuff can go whenever. 

it's clear here and I'm 25 miles from you

[Wxoutlooksblog]

50 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

The GFS shows how to end the month with normal precipitation as it catches up to where it should be by ruining a whole week.

Last week it had all 90's starting the 22nd.---as I pointed out.     Now its all Wet.  

There are so many things now going against a hot summer here. Firstly the models almost all agree on varying depth of an upper low in the northwest Atlantic. One after another we see disturbances moving in off of the Pacific, the jet stream about 400-500 south of where it normally is during the summer months. And as for the ridge out west, it really looks as though it's mostly going to stay there. Now to the south of us, it's a different story as from time to time pieces of the ridge break off and move east but they are mostly suppressed south of the NYC Metro with the upper low over the northwest Atlantic dominating NYC points north and east for the majority of the time, and if not temporary HP onshore winds and marine layers. Meanwhile, fronts look as though they'll get stuck right over us bringing at times above normal cloudcover, showers and storms and sometimes rain. I am thinking 15 or fewer 90+ days at the Park and fewer than 10 wouldn't shock me. Enjoy!

WX/PT

[Stormlover74]

Euro continues the wet theme for late week into next week

 

[Rtd208]

43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro continues the wet theme for late week into next week

 

Yeah we are going to be heading into a very wet period from late Thursday/Friday into next week with plenty of showers and thunderstorms. Those are some pretty impressive 10 day amounts on the Euro especially down in VA.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Yeah we are going to be heading into a very wet period from late Thursday/Friday into next week with plenty of showers and thunderstorms. Those are some pretty impressive 10 day amounts on the Euro especially down in VA.

That Midwest/Ohio Valley trough is ideal for us to get plenty of rain/tstorms this time of year 

[donsutherland1]

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow will be another fair day. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through at least the coming weekend.

Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures through 5 pm CDT included:

Austin: 103°
Corpus Christi: 97°
Cotulla: 114° (old record: 109°, 2019)
Del Rio: 107° (old record: 106°, 1996 and 2011)
Houston: 100°
Junction: 106° (old record: 104°, 2011) ***Tied June record of 5 105° or above days***
Laredo: 114° (old record: 112°, 2011)
San Angelo: 111° (old record: 109°, 1908) ***New June record, tied all-time record***
San Antonio: 104° (old record: 103°, 1918 and 2011)
Zapata: 114° (old record: 107°, 1998)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -19.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.127 today.

On June 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.610 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.014 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.8° (1.0° below normal).

 

[forkyfork]

high dewpoints and flooding oh my

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

high dewpoints and flooding oh my

Stalled front getting enhanced by tropical moisture ?

[jm1220]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June.

Tomorrow will be another fair day. The pleasantly warm readings will continue through at least Friday. Warmer conditions could begin to develop during the following weekend, but there is considerable uncertainty.

Parts of Texas are in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included:

Austin: 106° (old record: 105°, 2011)
Corpus Christi: 96°
Cotulla: 111° (old record: 108°, 2011)
Del Rio: 111° (old record: 106°, 2011) ***Missed June and all-time record by 1°***
Falcon Lake: 117° (old record: 109°, 2017) ***New all-time record***
Houston: 99°
Junction: 105° (tied record set in 2011)
Laredo: 108°
San Angelo: 102°
San Antonio: 103°
Zapata: 112° (old record: 106°, 1998)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was -26.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.105 today.

On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.013 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.408 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (0.8° below normal).

 

Times like this I'm glad I don't live there anymore and have to deal with that. Any heat we get-a summer down there is absolute hell. And the years I was there-2015 and 16, the horrendous summer was bookended by record rain and flooding in both May 2015 and Oct. I did pick an interesting weather time to be there.  

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That Midwest/Ohio Valley trough is ideal for us to get plenty of rain/tstorms this time of year 

Good. Definitely can still use it.