2023 - tracking the tropics

[STILL N OF PIKE]

22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There’s that but the trough at 144 pulls out quickly and the one behind it is far more favorable for a slingshot north. I’d still keep the odds at what I had the other day. A lot of moving pieces and the euro is on its own after a really big run to run shift. 

Ya I don’t think it was Margot , it was buried so long that a second better oriented trough steered it just w of Due N (I think )

[MJO812]

Euro has a tendency of amplifying storms too much.

[SouthCoastMA]

The new euro is always good for one or two of these wacky runs in the mid range. the king has been dead for a while

[Hailstoned]

5 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Nice recap, here’s my limited experience 

Gloria 85 - Remember many trees down, no school for a few days

 Bob 91 - was working in Rhinebeck NY, not much there, mostly SE Mass Storm.

Irene 11 - some tree damage in NE CT, power down for 4 days.

Sandy- lost power for 4 days in NE CT, some limbs down

Matthew - First S FL Hurricane, 5” of rain, some palm frawns down, power down for 36 hrs

Irma - 7” of rain, power down for 4 hours (FL&P flocking rocks) 

Dorian - That monster Sat 75 miles to my east in the Bahamas, ready to send the family north to safety.

Michael - Pan Handle work recovery, got to experience true CAT 5 aftermaths, breathtakingly sad and amazing.

Ian - fringed but still got 5” of rain and r plenty of yard debris. Peace out of FL after that

From the memory banks:

1953: Dim recollection of accompanying my dad around the yard picking up scraps of paper and the like fallen from the sky in the aftermath of the ORH tornado.

Carol, 1954: Going to the car in the garage with my mother to catch news on the car radio, having lost power. Then late afternoon/early evening in the calm sunny aftermath of the hurricane, indulging in my lifetime love of throwing by picking up a blown off shingle and giving it a fling, and being reprimanded by my dad who for some reason thought it might be used again. Or maybe he didn't approve of me  littering.

Edna: A bird being violently flung into a window-- or was that Carol?

Donna, 1960: Recall there being a very cool, fall like air mass in the days before the storm. Very heavy pre-rains, September 12, morning of, and the roaring gales when the rains let up and the core of the storm arrived, mid afternoon. Vividly recall the overwhelming scent of fresh downed trees that permeated the air in the storm's aftermath.

Esther, 1961: The early-emergent hype machine was on for this one due to its intensity in the south Atlantic. Older friends of mine regaled me with tales of previous tempests such as the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, warning of what to expect from Esther.The weather was unseasonably warm and sultry, and I recall being fascinated by the high cloud banding effect the afternoon before the storm, and how excited I was as a pre-band arrived mid evening with gusty winds and heavy rain. But little did I know that the slow approach of the storm and its indecisive looping was to make for a let down with but lackluster gusts in the Boston suburbs where I lived. But it did do a nice job of carving a piece off of Nantucket, to this day known as Esther island.

Belle, 1976: Blew its load down Long Island way; nothing up here but for sun and clouds, breezy tropical conditions.

Gloria, 1985: Not unlike Esther, Gloria was a formidable hurricane on its approach from the south Atlantic, and the ever evolving hype machine was all over it. I had the great good luck the day before the storm to fly in a small plane down from Vermont to Boston, able to observe the high overcast at close hand the entire trip. The storm itself with much greater forward speed than Esther, was pretty comparable to Donna, though without the heavy pre-rains. But like Donna, the winds suddenly coming up in the early afternoon with the first casualty a neighbor's apple tree split by what seemed a relatively modest gust-maybe it got taken by surprise. But the gusts to hurricane force the rest of the afternoon were impressive, perhaps most in particular to see spray lifted off a small protected lake near our home.

Bob, 1991: I chased for this one, down to the Cape and over the canal to a park not too far the other side. The hurricane was impressive, but for full impact I probably should have located to the Buzzards Bay area; seems I was a little ways to the right side of the eye. But as others have noted the back side gales were very notable, such as I witnessed driving back towards central MA up a near deserted I 495. Here in Monson about 4" of rain fell, with the wind not much of a factor.

[FXWX]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is hilarious 

We go from chasing a couple ensemble members every day with no op support to chasing an operational run with almost zero ensemble support!!!

[FXWX]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Watch EPS show zero hits 

exactly!!!

[Typhoon Tip]

The problem with the Euro run ( for me ) is that it's not impossible that a position may be end up found more West than guidance (as of late) has been depicting all along.

( Not a forecast ...)

I discussed this a few days ago, the idea of the 'super synoptic' signal.  It's a signal that is not carried ( necessarily ) in the physically materialized model runs, but is carried by the non-linear wave function.  That's basically the distribution of probabilities for emergence, based upon forcing that cannot be scene. 

This is real in wave mechanics, despite sounding quare-root of -i      It's also referred to as transitive forcing.   The way that works is ... A typically promotes the occurrence of B, which in turn does C ... That's the linear wave function.  Non-linearirty occurs when A-->B causes  E, but doesn't seem to register an observable forcing on C or D in between.  

The idea of Lee finding a position left of 70 W and getting caught up in a trough circulation ...even if transient and needing to be timed just so ( making it less likely if not too unnerving for the forum haha), that's what that is.  It's when "E" emerges because of what is going on between Japan and Chicago. 

I'll go ahead and side with lower probability of occurrence ... because there are other techniques just as useful - such as... other models agreeing. Lol. But, that super synoptic signal has been there, and ignored, by the operational runs all along.   I've seen these signals not physically materialize. But I have also seen these materialize in short order when everyone gave up.   What I am seeing to date is really the NAO handling that's f'ing this all up...  This is just not materializing in the operational runs nearly as much as it could (if not should), and if so, ... where is it?  east or west limb.  When has the NAO ever been handled on a D7+ chart very well. 

I was and am perfectly content to sit by and downplay this as a low or non risk to the U.S. ...  Like I said, sometimes these signals ...  -NAO could be east biased.  PNA could but E, too... still being +PNA/-NAO, but in whole, the signal means the coastal bombs for NS.  Or like last December.. the +PNA massive HA signal was west situated continent, and it ends up over Buffalo. Sometimes you get the bare, sometimes the bear gets you.

[WxWatcher007]

I don’t think much has changed IMO. Long shot for NE (~5% SNE/15% Cape & ENE) with significantly greater risk for Atlantic Canada (40%) and OTS (40%) squarely on the table. 
 

 

[CoastalWx]

The coveted euro op.

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has a tendency of amplifying storms too much.

Yeah when it’s not agreeing with its own ensembles combined with its amped bias it makes sense to go with the less aggressive guidance. 

[Hazey]

Nice to see the euro throw someone else’s skin in the game. This is going to be a fun week. Nerve wracking but exciting.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Nice to see the euro throw someone else’s skin in the game. This is going to be a fun week. Nerve wracking but exciting.

Eps is well offshore

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is well offshore

The mean came back west .. especially the east members 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

24 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Nice to see the euro throw someone else’s skin in the game. This is going to be a fun week. Nerve wracking but exciting.

You’re definitely in the game, a track to your west could be especially devastating. This long track storms always seem to be very east of the center impact based wind and surge wise. 
lees looking to reform its core nicely right now. 

[Torch Tiger]

the 18z gfs is much faster with Lee's motion than the Euro, by hundreds of miles.  Allows it to tangle with the first trough much more

[Torch Tiger]

Otherwise by D4 or so, the main players are fairly similar on both.

[hurricaneman]

If the GFS was moving this at the speed of the Euro it would have a similar outcome, the slower Lee is the farther west it goes and vice versa

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, hurricaneman said:

If the GFS was moving this at the speed of the Euro it would have a similar outcome, the slower Lee is the farther west it goes and vice versa

I can see that. The less interaction with the first trough the more likely this can curve NW towards the coast.

[ineedsnow]

18z GEFS are going to have more hits

[CoastalWx]

Sort of two camps on GEFS. One faster like the op. The other slower and closer. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sort of two camps on GEFS. One faster like the op. The other slower and closer. 

Concerning…

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Concerning…

Not yet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, well I think the take away is that we’ve got some increase in mop-end going on wrt what was before a better consensus for the extended timeframe – which perhaps that should have been expected at some point. The consensus might have been a false herring at D 9 just maybe …

We’ve all seen day 7+ agreement fall apart with coastal storms and/or every aspect of meteorology for that matter not just with tropics.

What it all means who the hell knows 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not yet. 

Any hits are. Just the idea that it’s possible is enough. 

[ineedsnow]

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Any hits are. Just the idea that it’s possible is enough. 

It was never impossible (fwiw) despite all the heavy handed negativity and hand throwing in general. 

It’s likely to not happen. But when that seems apparent folks tend not to be very interested in discussing what can still happen to realize x-y-z … If they don’t see it on the actual model looping cinema … leads to no dopamine jolt and the whole thing is damned to hell. Lol

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It was never impossible (fwiw) despite all the heavy handed negativity and hand throwing in general. 

It’s likely to not happen. But folks tend not to be very interested in discussing what can happen to realize … if they don’t see it on the model looping cinema … leads to no dopamine jolt and the whole thing is damned to hell. Lol

This, 100%.

Let’s see what 00z does  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let’s keep that dopamine drip trickling all day baby , let’s get It flowing till Ray wants a sip 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

As low probability as it is , the idea of the -Nao drop and the second camp potentially emerging In the gfs camp (Slower and closer ) has my interest piqued more 

I was in this for the swell/ wave phenomenon that will show up Thur , Fri (sat if slower solutions win out ) so the bar was pretty low for my interest , I just can’t help driving out to a point and watching the show in front of the new port mansions (ruggles famous big wave spot) on east coast in hurricane swell 

[SnoSki14]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sort of two camps on GEFS. One faster like the op. The other slower and closer. 

That adds up to what the Euro OP was doing. Probably too early to count out eastern SNE just yet. 

Bottom line is that a slower moving Lee is a bigger threat. 

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It was never impossible (fwiw) despite all the heavy handed negativity and hand throwing in general. 

It’s likely to not happen. But when that seems apparent folks tend not to be very interested in discussing what can still happen to realize x-y-z … If they don’t see it on the actual model looping cinema … leads to no dopamine jolt and the whole thing is damned to hell. Lol

I think just as many are ready to discount any possibility of a threat as those on social media hyping it up. Quite fascinating really 

Just to stay on this hype train. How strong do you think it could be realistically. I'd imagine there would be some baroclinic assist.