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2023 - tracking the tropics


mcglups
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This is an EXTREMELY loose assessment and criteria but I've gone back to look at summers in which we were transitioning from La Nina to EL Nino. I just solely used the Ensemble ONI. Again...just very basic assessment with one strict criteria. 

List of years:

1904, 1911, 1918, 1925, 1951, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 2006, 2018

Avg. # of named storms: 8.55

Avg. # of hurricanes: 4.45

Avg. # of major's: 1.18

If doing from 1965-on

Avg. # of named storms: 10.4

Avg. # of hurricanes: 5.20

Avg. # of major's: 1.40

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

I know I’m probably the only one who cares, but I’d be watching closely in Atlantic Canada, especially NS. 

OCXfyWT.jpg
 

Cindy coming back from the dead after a likely fatal encounter with shear and dry air the next few days has gained steam across guidance, and the seasonal theme of cutoff lows will time itself almost perfectly with a northward moving TC to rocket Cindy north/NNW rather than harmlessly OTS. 
OWvRNRt.jpg

Unlike virtually the rest of the basin, this area is frigid, so there’s a far lesser chance of a truly significant storm, but an Atlantic Canada landfall is notable any time, especially so early in the season.

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Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
500 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023

The satellite presentation of Cindy this afternoon is fairly 
unimpressive, with an exposed low-level swirl ejecting quickly 
northwestward away from the pulsing convection present to its east. 
Earlier, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission measured 
Cindy's surface pressure, which was higher than estimated earlier, 
at 1005 mb. However, the fast motion of the storm this afternoon has 
still enabled strong winds to exist on the east side of the 
circulation. The aircraft found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 59 
kt, with the highest SFMR obs up to 50 kt. Thus, despite the rather 
disheveled appearance , Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm for 
this advisory. However, most of these winds are concentrated in the 
northeast quadrant, with much lighter winds on its western side. 

Aircraft fixes indicate that the tropical storm is still moving 
quickly to the northwest, estimated at 310/18 kt. This quick 
northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 12-18 h, 
though the track model guidance suggest the system should slow down 
its forward motion thereafter. There continues to be large 
divergence in the track guidance after about 24 hours, with the GFS, 
HWRF, and HAFS guidance on the east side of the track envelope 
(related to some degree of center reformation or relocation to the 
northeast), with the CMC, ECMWF, & COAMPS-TC on the west side. The 
NHC track forecast ops to continue taking a blend between the ECMWF 
and TVCA consensus aid. Cindy should pass well northeast of the 
northernmost Leeward Islands tomorrow into Monday. 

Even though Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm, this is as much of 
a reflection of its quick forward motion than its current 
organization, which has gone downhill this afternoon, supported by 
the higher central pressure measured by aircraft observations. 
Vertical wind shear is forecast to quickly increase to around 30-kt 
over the next day or so, and that combined with a fairly dry 
mid-level environment should result in weakening over the next 
several days. Given the fragile nature of Cindy's circulation 
currently, it seems likely the tropical cyclone will succumb to the 
unfavorable environment. In fact, the latest ECMWF forecast shows 
the tropical cyclone opening up into a trough as soon as in the next 
48 hours. While the latest NHC intensity forecast does not show 
dissipation quite that soon, it has been moved up to 72-h in best 
agreement with the latest ECMWF and CMC solutions. It should be 
noted, however, that there remains a significant portion of the 
guidance that, even if Cindy dissipates, could attempt to 
regenerate by the end of the forecast period as the shear lowers.  
However, that is not reflected in the NHC intensity forecast at this 
time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 17.8N  54.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 19.7N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 21.8N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 23.9N  60.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 25.5N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 27.0N  62.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin
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  • 2 weeks later...
15 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I was just looking at SSTA's. This is pretty mind boggling. Was going to post something in the ENSO/winter thread but the PDO is pretty insane. I think the june PDO value was the lowest June value on record 

ssta.daily.current.png

Keys water temp 95 to 97!! Yikes

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17 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I was just looking at SSTA's. This is pretty mind boggling. Was going to post something in the ENSO/winter thread but the PDO is pretty insane. I think the june PDO value was the lowest June value on record 

ssta.daily.current.png

I think the pattern this winter could be pretty insane for New England during periods of -NAO/AO.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the pattern this winter could be pretty insane for New England during periods of -NAO/AO.

If this keeps up it's going to be a volatile winter without a doubt. I'm not ready to write off winter just because we may be headed towards strong Nino. Sure the odds aren't great when dealing with a stronger event, but there have been strong Ninos to produce and it's important to understand the mechanisms for that. 

 

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