mcglups Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Looks like our season already started! https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/PNSNHC/2023/PNSNHC.202305111500.txt 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 Hoping to see something good. Still mad at myself for not going to Florida last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 15 Share Posted May 15 Did they ever go back and re-assess October 2021 or whatever year it was that a Cat 1 crushed southeast Mass and the Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 This is an EXTREMELY loose assessment and criteria but I've gone back to look at summers in which we were transitioning from La Nina to EL Nino. I just solely used the Ensemble ONI. Again...just very basic assessment with one strict criteria. List of years: 1904, 1911, 1918, 1925, 1951, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1976, 2006, 2018 Avg. # of named storms: 8.55 Avg. # of hurricanes: 4.45 Avg. # of major's: 1.18 If doing from 1965-on Avg. # of named storms: 10.4 Avg. # of hurricanes: 5.20 Avg. # of major's: 1.40 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 On 5/15/2023 at 6:35 AM, Chrisrotary12 said: Did they ever go back and re-assess October 2021 or whatever year it was that a Cat 1 crushed southeast Mass and the Cape? It wasn’t designed until it was well east of NE https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL212021_Wanda.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 17 Share Posted May 17 Is this the year we pay the piper? Cat 3/borderline 4 into LI? Let's goooo 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 12 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Is this the year we pay the piper? Cat 3/borderline 4 into LI? Let's goooo No. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 7 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: No. Lol Hopefully the center cuts west of us so it can blow down our forests 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Hopefully the center cuts west of us so it can blow down our forests What forests? According to some weenie in CT they’ll be ashes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Key west or Broward/Palm beach is long “overdue”for a catastrophic 4 or 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 On 5/20/2023 at 2:00 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Key west or Broward/Palm beach is long “overdue”for a catastrophic 4 or 5 That’s definitely the number one overdue for the big one spot in the US. They used to get a major every few years back in the 20-40s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 We can hope something that looks like this can swing up the coast this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noforsnow Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 On 5/20/2023 at 2:00 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Key west or Broward/Palm beach is long “overdue”for a catastrophic 4 or 5 We're good, so no thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcglups Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 16 hours ago, ineedsnow said: We can hope something that looks like this can swing up the coast this year Definitely a major system out there with T-numbers way up there for days! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Was just going to post this- she’s gorgeous. Doesn’t get much more textbook. 23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: insane! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 54 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: insane! Going to be hard to top this globally for 2023. That’s just about perfection for a tropical cyclone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 What were max sustained winds translated to mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 26 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What were max sustained winds translated to mph 185mph/897mb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Our first phantom hit of the year! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 I know I’m probably the only one who cares, but I’d be watching closely in Atlantic Canada, especially NS. Cindy coming back from the dead after a likely fatal encounter with shear and dry air the next few days has gained steam across guidance, and the seasonal theme of cutoff lows will time itself almost perfectly with a northward moving TC to rocket Cindy north/NNW rather than harmlessly OTS. Unlike virtually the rest of the basin, this area is frigid, so there’s a far lesser chance of a truly significant storm, but an Atlantic Canada landfall is notable any time, especially so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023 The satellite presentation of Cindy this afternoon is fairly unimpressive, with an exposed low-level swirl ejecting quickly northwestward away from the pulsing convection present to its east. Earlier, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission measured Cindy's surface pressure, which was higher than estimated earlier, at 1005 mb. However, the fast motion of the storm this afternoon has still enabled strong winds to exist on the east side of the circulation. The aircraft found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 59 kt, with the highest SFMR obs up to 50 kt. Thus, despite the rather disheveled appearance , Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm for this advisory. However, most of these winds are concentrated in the northeast quadrant, with much lighter winds on its western side. Aircraft fixes indicate that the tropical storm is still moving quickly to the northwest, estimated at 310/18 kt. This quick northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 12-18 h, though the track model guidance suggest the system should slow down its forward motion thereafter. There continues to be large divergence in the track guidance after about 24 hours, with the GFS, HWRF, and HAFS guidance on the east side of the track envelope (related to some degree of center reformation or relocation to the northeast), with the CMC, ECMWF, & COAMPS-TC on the west side. The NHC track forecast ops to continue taking a blend between the ECMWF and TVCA consensus aid. Cindy should pass well northeast of the northernmost Leeward Islands tomorrow into Monday. Even though Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm, this is as much of a reflection of its quick forward motion than its current organization, which has gone downhill this afternoon, supported by the higher central pressure measured by aircraft observations. Vertical wind shear is forecast to quickly increase to around 30-kt over the next day or so, and that combined with a fairly dry mid-level environment should result in weakening over the next several days. Given the fragile nature of Cindy's circulation currently, it seems likely the tropical cyclone will succumb to the unfavorable environment. In fact, the latest ECMWF forecast shows the tropical cyclone opening up into a trough as soon as in the next 48 hours. While the latest NHC intensity forecast does not show dissipation quite that soon, it has been moved up to 72-h in best agreement with the latest ECMWF and CMC solutions. It should be noted, however, that there remains a significant portion of the guidance that, even if Cindy dissipates, could attempt to regenerate by the end of the forecast period as the shear lowers. However, that is not reflected in the NHC intensity forecast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.8N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 19.7N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 21.8N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 23.9N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 25.5N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 27.0N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 On 5/25/2023 at 3:06 AM, ineedsnow said: We can hope something that looks like this can swing up the coast this year Well... would certainly help sell more generators! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 Umm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11 Share Posted July 11 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Umm I was just looking at SSTA's. This is pretty mind boggling. Was going to post something in the ENSO/winter thread but the PDO is pretty insane. I think the june PDO value was the lowest June value on record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 15 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I was just looking at SSTA's. This is pretty mind boggling. Was going to post something in the ENSO/winter thread but the PDO is pretty insane. I think the june PDO value was the lowest June value on record Keys water temp 95 to 97!! Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Keys water temp 95 to 97!! Yikes Holy smokes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 17 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I was just looking at SSTA's. This is pretty mind boggling. Was going to post something in the ENSO/winter thread but the PDO is pretty insane. I think the june PDO value was the lowest June value on record I think the pattern this winter could be pretty insane for New England during periods of -NAO/AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the pattern this winter could be pretty insane for New England during periods of -NAO/AO. If this keeps up it's going to be a volatile winter without a doubt. I'm not ready to write off winter just because we may be headed towards strong Nino. Sure the odds aren't great when dealing with a stronger event, but there have been strong Ninos to produce and it's important to understand the mechanisms for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 12 Share Posted July 12 It’s insane, and starting to light up along the east coast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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