2023 - tracking the tropics

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

It’s not much, but there could be a window for some W Atlantic development in the next 7-10 days with a weak signal on the ensembles. There are waves out there, it’s just tough sledding for anything to pop right now. 

[ineedsnow]

HAWAII  is going to get some massive waves.. they have this at 120kts looks like it would be higher to me.. perfect eye

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

HAWAII  is going to get some massive waves.. they have this at 120kts looks like it would be higher to me.. perfect eye

Looks annular

They had a nice south swell last year that led to a few popular videos of swells crashing at a wedding event .

The N shore is where their legendary swells hit from ..the huge gradient between winter high pressure and monster sized Aleutian Low pressures .  

This south swell should be sweet and hit areas that only see that sort of action from tropical systems .

 

edit it’s actually pretty tiny regarding hurricane force winds extending only 20 miles out and tropical storm force winds 60 miles , so regarding wave Size generation where fetch plays such a large part .. the swell will be sort of equal to a 100mph storm with a moderate size 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

10 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks annular

They had a nice south swell last year that led to a few popular videos of swells crashing at a wedding event .

The N shore is where their legendary swells hit from ..the huge gradient between winter high pressure and monster sized Aleutian Low pressures .  

This south swell should be sweet and hit areas that only see that sort of action from tropical systems .

 

edit it’s actually pretty tiny regarding hurricane force winds extending only 20 miles out and tropical storm force winds 60 miles , so regarding wave Size generation where fetch plays such a large part .. the swell will be sort of equal to a 100mph storm with a moderate size 

Exactly. Fetch and duration are actually equally important. You can get captured fetch when a storm is moving fast enough to entrain its own swell. So there is likely a large east swell moving with the storm currently, but to the westerly movement it will miss the islands. The best example of captured fetch was hurricane bill of 08 in the north east. The storm was moving north west towards the coast with a large captured swell ejected as the storm eventually turned north. That produced the largest swell I have witnessed on Long Island. With sets in the 15 foot range causing massive wash overs and beach erosion under sunny sky’s. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly. Fetch and duration are actually equally important. You can get captured fetch when a storm is moving fast enough to entrain its own swell. So there is likely a large east swell moving with the storm currently, but to the westerly movement it will miss the islands. The best example of captured fetch was hurricane bill of 08 in the north east. The storm was moving north west towards the coast with a large captured swell ejected as the storm eventually turned north. That produced the largest swell I have witnessed on Long Island. With sets in the 15 foot range causing massive wash overs and beach erosion under sunny sky’s. 

Well said . That is why people will be continually amazed by surge in storms like Sandy . Top level winds meh . Fetch ..enormous 

Perfect storm fetch sent humongous swells to palm beach county over 1400 miles away . Swell jumped from about 4 feet to 15 feet on bouys in several hours .

Since you are probably one of the only folks who may find it interesting ..Youtube vids of Bill at Schoodic point @ Arcadia looked like the biggest east coast surf I’ve seen filmed .

**Also continuing this tangent , one of the coolest swell phenomena I think you would appreciate occurred in Delray Beach Florida  with cat 5 Hurricane Isabel well ESE . Delrays swell window is NE swell to NNE about 50 degrees to 25. It is blocked to the SE and E by the grand Bahamian bank . Except for a tiny swell window that alligns with the new providence channel in between two Bahama islands to the East . The channel is about 10 miles wide and open from a 100 degree angle swell .

The beaches a few miles south of delray saw 2-4 foot swell that sort of looked refracted and the city of delray itself saw 12-15 foot swells. I was there that day after checking out minimal surf 5 miles south i was shocked as I pulled up to Delray  , it sounded almost like 15 second bombs going off front photographers lined the beach , and the swells looked like the size of “houses” just lined up as far as you can see to the horizon . Was crazy . This is a research paper on the phenomena that day 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241223741_How_the_Swells_of_Hurricane_Isabel_Impacted_Southeast_Florida

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Dead

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Dead

Nothing at all on future models 

[Torch Tiger]

Nothing ever again

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Nothing ever again

Right…. Slow but not forgotten. Though I think some of the major forecast have a high bust potential. 

[ineedsnow]

12z EPS showing some life

[ineedsnow]

I'll take the 918mb storm heading for the east coast

[WxWatcher007]

What a GFS run lol

In all seriousness, it does look like we’re going to start seeing signs of life (no, not a basin full of canes) in the next week. Big big test for the season and basin. 

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS has been consistent with a strong cane off Carolina coast days 9-10

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hoping I don’t miss anything 25-29’th. Gonna be away , seems like the end of that time frame could get interesting 

[CoastalWx]

Voodoo MJO stuff looks like it shows an active African Monsoon potential late August into September. That could be a window where it gets active.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Voodoo MJO stuff looks like it shows an active African Monsoon potential late August into September. That could be a window where it gets active.

Is this the CCKW stuff or different 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is this the CCKW stuff or different 

Well CCKW can enhance or interfere with the wave. I just mean for a couple of weeks it looks to be fairly favorable. Only caveat I see is some subsidence perhaps in the MDR early September.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18z Gfs long range has a pretty close call and active period last week of month 

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

18z Gfs long range has a pretty close call and active period last week of month 

Starting to feel an active late August into September, not necessarily because of climo.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Starting to feel an active late August into September, not necessarily because of climo.

Let’s dew it. 38’ Special 

[ineedsnow]

California crushed on the GFS and CMC

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

California crushed on the GFS and CMC

Good, I was thinking earlier....wish we could get a full phase and rip a cane into S CA.  Tough to even get remnant rains above Tijuana 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Good, I was thinking earlier....wish we could get a full phase and rip a cane into S CA.  Tough to even get remnant rains above Tijuana 

You would need a cat 5 at the latitude of Cabo, that gets sling shot north north east at, at least 40knots to get anything resembling a real cane. It’s possible but extremely unlikely. Low end trop storm is generally about the strongest possible given the hundreds of miles of cool water along the Baja, which is often even colder than in socal itself. 

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You would need a cat 5 at the latitude of Cabo, that gets sling shot north north east at, at least 40knots to get anything resembling a real cane. It’s possible but extremely unlikely. Low end trop storm is generally about the strongest possible given the hundreds of miles of cool water along the Baja, which is often even colder than in socal itself. 

Sounds like New England  

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sounds like New England  

Similar. Except the area of cold water (buffer) is much larger and significantly colder. 
Speaking of which we are losing our buffer and will eventually (by the end of the century likely) be prime major hurricane coastline. Without the need for fast speed out of the Gulf Stream to limit weakening. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Similar. Except the area of cold water (buffer) is much larger and significantly colder. 
Speaking of which we are losing our buffer and will eventually (by the end of the century likely) be prime major hurricane coastline. Without the need for fast speed out of the Gulf Stream to limit weakening. 

Promises promises 

[Torch Tiger]

7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You would need a cat 5 at the latitude of Cabo, that gets sling shot north north east at, at least 40knots to get anything resembling a real cane. It’s possible but extremely unlikely. Low end trop storm is generally about the strongest possible given the hundreds of miles of cool water along the Baja, which is often even colder than in socal itself. 

I was talking fantasy, surely that's never happened and won't in our lifetime.   SST's etc.  Yet would LOVE to see a catastrophicane ripped into San Diego

[Ginx snewx]

See you at the Wedge

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]