Torch Tiger Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 disturbance #2 /30% looks decent, but moving directly east safely offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 The season so far has been ahead or well ahead of climatology to date in virtually every metric. Even more so with niño climatology. I’m bearish on the season, but I still think we’re at a point where the season can go either way. August needs to produce, though. That’s absolutely critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 31, 2023 Share Posted July 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: disturbance #2 /30% looks decent, but moving directly east safely offshore. Hard to get one to ride up with a big trough there. I’d love to see one of those AEWs cross the Atlantic and pop as it’s rounding the flexing WAR in a few weeks. If there’s a window for us, I think it’s now to about Labor Day. After that…too many fronts IMO and Nino climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 Dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1, 2023 Share Posted August 1, 2023 Yeah, it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Dead. Boy I thought something would happen with all that warm water south etc. interesting ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 Garbage , shear , Sal, no CCKW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 16 hours ago, 512high said: Boy I thought something would happen with all that warm water south etc. interesting ...... Everyone drops their pants over warm water...but tropicals are fragile. There is so much more that goes into their development. The environment around them needs to be conducive for development. If it is not,...flaccidity. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Everyone drops their pants over warm water...but tropicals are fragile. There is so much more that goes into their development. The environment around them needs to be conducive for development. If it is not,...flaccidity. Yep... SST only come seriously into play when you have a viable disturbance and/or large scale features favorable for development. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 SST's are essentially fuel like instability is fuel for thunderstorms. You can have all the instability in the world, but that doesn't mean you're going to get thunderstorms. SSTs can be bath water and that doesn't mean tropical systems are going to form. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 It’s August 3rd lol. It’s usually dead around this time. Rather than focusing on that, I think it’s more instructive to note that despite some objectively favorable windows, the basin did not produce. I think you could say that in a season where the tenor is active, 96L & 97L probably would have developed. That said, Don overperformed. I think August 15-31 is as critical a period for the overall season as any August window in recent memory. Without significant activity there, I think it’d be hard for the AN forecasts to verify given the niño. I still don’t think this is a cut and dry BN season yet given the mix of active and inactive signals. I think I’d lean slightly below normal currently, but normal and slightly above seem reasonable forecasts to me as well right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 58 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s August 3rd lol. It’s usually dead around this time. Rather than focusing on that, I think it’s more instructive to note that despite some objectively favorable windows, the basin did not produce. I think you could say that in a season where the tenor is active, 96L & 97L probably would have developed. That said, Don overperformed. I think August 15-31 is as critical a period for the overall season as any August window in recent memory. Without significant activity there, I think it’d be hard for the AN forecasts to verify given the niño. I still don’t think this is a cut and dry BN season yet given the mix of active and inactive signals. I think I’d lean slightly below normal currently, but normal and slightly above seem reasonable forecasts to me as well right now. Don't worry Don a dud of a season will be blamed on CC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 On 8/2/2023 at 1:15 PM, FXWX said: Yep... SST only come seriously into play when you have a viable disturbance and/or large scale features favorable for development. Just like winter, its all about the mid levels...surface thermals just get the conversation started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 3, 2023 Share Posted August 3, 2023 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Don't worry Don a dud of a season will be blamed on CC Exactly….so pathetic. All ya hear is the tropical activity is going up. More fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 21 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Exactly….so pathetic. All ya hear is the tropical activity is going up. More fake news. Well, not to trigger you....but I think GW would have a similar impact on tropical activity and snowfall....ie the ceiling is raised, but not necessarily "more" activity. Given that that Godzilla of a Pacific basin is also warming upstream, wind shear is also likely to become more prevalent IMO...not to mention perhaps more predominate SAL as the deserts cook. Folks just tend to overattribute and oversimplify the impact. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, not to trigger you....but I think GW would have a similar impact on tropical activity and snowfall....ie the ceiling is raised, but not necessarily "more" activity. Given that that Godzilla of a Pacific basin is also warming upstream, wind shear is also likely to become more prevalent IMO...not to mention perhaps more predominate SAL as the deserts cook. Folks just tend to overattribute and oversimplify and the impact. Exactly... It might be a partial pattern driver, how much no one really knows, but more importantly it can be an "enhancer" of sorts when a particular event occurs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 No one asked me but I was never convinced that CC meant a future of 5 swarms. I remember arguing this back in Eastern some 15 years go I don't have a problem with goosing some systems here and there, due to having higher oceanic heat content in the couple storm engine and all that.. But, if the surrounding atmosphere warms along with the ocean, that may change the ambient sounding toward warmer - hello. Gradient ... it keeps killing all narratives. If the atm warms than the differentials don't change, and the storms remain the same. Crude way to explain but just to get the point across - Here's some qualification. Where ever the oceanic heat content is above normal, and the vertical sounding ( tropical in structure) is lagged, that is whence the storm will benefit from large sea to ambient air differentials. If not, big ocean temp doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 4, 2023 Share Posted August 4, 2023 If we want to get into shearing mechanics due to upstream x-y-b-c than that's another discipline of the TC manifold. But I'm just speaking in terms of the thermodynamics - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, not to trigger you....but I think GW would have a similar impact on tropical activity and snowfall....ie the ceiling is raised, but not necessarily "more" activity. Given that that Godzilla of a Pacific basin is also warming upstream, wind shear is also likely to become more prevalent IMO...not to mention perhaps more predominate SAL as the deserts cook. Folks just tend to overattribute and oversimplify the impact. Lol..not triggered by you pal. I can respect your viewpoint, but I just don’t buy any of the BS. Bring on the big Canes, and Big Blizzards! The atmosphere strives for equilibrium and the big storms are how it achieves this balance. If the so called CC is responsible(but I don’t believe any of it, cuz it’ll change In the opposite direction when it’s ready like it always has for millennia) then Im fine with it. Doesn’t worry me or factor in to any part of my life whatsoever. It’ll do what it does…as it always has. But folks are free to believe what they want, and I’m good with it. I just can’t agree with it. Just my opinion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 3 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Lol..not triggered by you pal. I can respect your viewpoint, but I just don’t buy any of the BS. Bring on the big Canes, and Big Blizzards! The atmosphere strives for equilibrium and the big storms are how it achieves this balance. If the so called CC is responsible(but I don’t believe any of it, cuz it’ll change In the opposite direction when it’s ready like it always has for millennia) then Im fine with it. Doesn’t worry me or factor in to any part of my life whatsoever. It’ll do what it does…as it always has. But folks are free to believe what they want, and I’m good with it. I just can’t agree with it. Just my opinion. It’s not meant to be political. We are warming. It’s a fact. What we are trying to figure out is the result of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not meant to be political. We are warming. It’s a fact. What we are trying to figure out is the result of it. Oh I wasn’t making it political…so I apologize if it came across that way. We’ve warmed before …and we’ve cooled before. Same will happen here. We may, or may not see it happen in our lifetimes, but it will happen again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Oh I wasn’t making it political…so I apologize if it came across that way. We’ve warmed before …and we’ve cooled before. Same will happen here. We may, or may not see it happen in our lifetimes, but it will happen again. you certainly didn’t make it political , politicians the world over have and if i trust anyone to represent something accurately it’s politicians , corporations and media and if i trust anyone to actually fix something in an equitable way that Actually plagued the planet and helps the planet and isn’t just cleverly focused on enriching the current power structure or making them appear to care (and thus garner support) and Simply convince citizens They have the best solution ..it’s certainly that trio . History shows this trio is so very not focused on power and profit only , but cares <3. It’s theatre and if it was serious policy the military industrial complex , China and a couple others would be the focus of reducing the Emissions not Joe bobs car, but feeling good fairy tales are not just for kids and think tanks recognize this . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Oh I wasn’t making it political…so I apologize if it came across that way. We’ve warmed before …and we’ve cooled before. Same will happen here. We may, or may not see it happen in our lifetimes, but it will happen again. We've warmed and cooled before over the course of millions of years not 150. That's just something that deniers and skeptics either can't comprehend or don't want to for whatever reason. Altering the climate by 2C in 200 years is insane and will have disastrous impacts, which we're already seeing today. This should not be political it's just reality and it'll happen whether you believe it or not. And yeah it'll definitely cool off again once humans have been wiped out by their own idiocy 1 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 Anyone follow any tropical mets that have any recent tweets about the next month or season activity and their thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 DIT's boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted August 5, 2023 Share Posted August 5, 2023 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: We've warmed and cooled before over the course of millions of years not 150. That's just something that deniers and skeptics either can't comprehend or don't want to for whatever reason. Altering the climate by 2C in 200 years is insane and will have disastrous impacts, which we're already seeing today. This should not be political it's just reality and it'll happen whether you believe it or not. And yeah it'll definitely cool off again once humans have been wiped out by their own idiocy It wasn’t political with the ozone layer and we fixed that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: We've warmed and cooled before over the course of millions of years not 150. That's just something that deniers and skeptics either can't comprehend or don't want to for whatever reason. Altering the climate by 2C in 200 years is insane and will have disastrous impacts, which we're already seeing today. This should not be political it's just reality and it'll happen whether you believe it or not. And yeah it'll definitely cool off again once humans have been wiped out by their own idiocy Really??? you’re funny. But we’ve only been keeping records for 150 years at best…and that tells a ton compared to millennia…right??? It won’t matter one f’n bit about us! That’s the difference. So you just stop driving your truck, and using your stove, and using your heat and air conditioner too. Or maybe taking a sh*t in a toilet too? Cuz maybe you might make a difference lmao. You guys are hilarious! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 5 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Really??? you’re funny. But we’ve only been keeping records for 150 years at best…and that tells a ton compared to millennia…right??? It won’t matter one f’n bit about us! That’s the difference. So you just stop driving your truck, and using your stove, and using your heat and air conditioner too. Or maybe taking a sh*t in a toilet too? Cuz maybe you might make a difference lmao. You guys are hilarious! Individuals can't change anything. The polluters are mostly corporations and big oil so no I won't stop what I'm doing. We use ice cores for far reaching data, 150 years is for more specific/localized information but the facts don't lie regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 10 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Really??? you’re funny. But we’ve only been keeping records for 150 years at best…and that tells a ton compared to millennia…right??? It won’t matter one f’n bit about us! That’s the difference. So you just stop driving your truck, and using your stove, and using your heat and air conditioner too. Or maybe taking a sh*t in a toilet too? Cuz maybe you might make a difference lmao. You guys are hilarious! drunk posting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 6, 2023 Share Posted August 6, 2023 44 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: drunk posting No it’s highlights the futility of personal changes that are pointless and being pushed as policy fixes by corporates and politicians focused solely on the perception they appear favorable and you can trust they also find a a way to profit from the Regulations bc that is where they excel and continually succeed , that is where the motivation is in case some of us Pretend to be new to the world . ...and there **will never** be the political will to tackle the heart of the human contribution so it’s a giant circle jerk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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