May 2023

[psv88]

89 here in Suffolk. 

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That won't last much longer. The dews are coming sooner or later. 

I’m honestly shocked the dews haven’t arrived yet, if only for a day or two. It has been remarkable pleasant for the east coast. 

[CIK62]

 The next 8 days are averaging   65degs.(56/73) or +1.

Month to date is   60.7[0.0].     Should be      62.4[+0.4] by the 21st.

Reached 89 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:    77-81, wind w. to n., cloudy till 2pm-some clearing, 59 tomorrow AM.

68*(74%RH) here at 7am.     70* at 8am.      73* at 9am.      76* at 10am.     79* at 11am.      79* at Noon.      Reached  80* at 2pm.      76* at 8pm.

 

[SACRUS]

 

73/61 cloudy with showers  missing to the west and south.   Should touch near or 80 today despite the cluds. Most places look dry as it continues to dry out.  Clearing by Mothers day (5/14) could still be a bit cloudy.  Mon (5/15) - Wed (5/17) warmer before cooler by Wed evening into Thu (5/18) perhaps staying below 70 or close to it.  Next shot of some meaningful rain (more than a trace) is looking like next Fri (5/19) and Sat (5/20).  No real strong departures either way.  Some hint next brief push of warmer - hot by 5/24.  In the way beyond  Ridging into the east coast by Memorial day timing.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 92 (1959)
NYC: 93 (1881)
LGA: 88 (1991)

 

Lows:

EWR: 40 (1938)
NYC: 40 (1907)
LGA: 43 (1940)

Historical:

 

1930 - A man was killed when caught in an open field during a hailstorm northwest of Lubbock TX. It was the first, and perhaps the only, authentic death by hail in U.S. weather records. (David Ludlum)

 

1980: An F3 tornado ripped directly through the center of Kalamazoo, Michigan, killing five people, injuring 79, leaving 1,200 homeless and causing $50 million in damage. The tornado passed directly over the American Bank, where a barograph reported a pressure drop of 0.59 inches.

1981 - A tornado 450 yards in width destroyed ninety percent of Emberson TX. People did not see a tornado, but rather a wall of debris. Homes were leveled, a man in a bathtub was hurled a quarter of a mile, and a 1500 pound recreational vehicle was hurled 500 yards. Miraculously no deaths occurred in the tornado. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front brought an end to the early season warm spell in the north central U.S., but not before the temperature at Sioux City IA soared to a record warm 95 degrees. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front gusted to 52 mph at Marais MI. Evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Rockford MN, and wind gusts to 75 mph at Belmond IA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Strong winds along a cold front ushering cold air into the northwestern U.S. gusted to 69 mph at Myton UT. Temperatures warmed into the 80s ahead of the cold front, as far north as Montana. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a warm front produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region during the afternoon and night. A thunderstorm at Killeen TX produced wind gusts to 95 mph damaging 200 helicopters at Fort Hood causing nearly 500 million dollars damage. Another thunderstorm produced softball size hail at Hodges TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front spawned ten tornadoes from eastern Wyoming to northern Kansas, including seven in western Nebraska. Thunderstorms forming ahead of a cold front in the eastern U.S. spawned five tornadoes from northeastern North Carolina to southern Pennsylvania. Thunderstorms over southeast Louisiana deluged the New Orleans area with four to eight inches of rain between 7 AM and Noon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: This outbreak produced tornadoes extending from the Mississippi River near Burlington, Iowa, to the west of Bloomington, Illinois. Two violent tornadoes, each ranked at F4 intensity, were reported. The first tornado traveled 60 miles from near Fort Madison, Iowa, to the southeast of Galesburg, Illinois producing over $10 million damage. The town of Raritan, Illinois was hit the hardest. The second violent tornado traveled 7 miles across Fulton County from Ipava to Lewistown, Illinois producing $6 million damage. Another strong tornado took a 25-mile path across parts of Fulton, Mason, and Tazewell Counties. The storms also produced softball-size hail south and northwest of Macomb in Illinois. Five men were injured in Lawrence County, Indiana when lightning struck one of them and traveled to the other four. There were 184 reports of severe weather, including over three dozen tornadoes. 

[forkyfork]

[Stormlover74]

75, feels warm this morning

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

If there's no severe in that pattern then I don't care. 

[CIK62]

Rather anemic looking T's:

[Stormlover74]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If there's no severe in that pattern then I don't care. 

Seems like it's March and September now

[MANDA]

57 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If there's no severe in that pattern then I don't care. 

If that EPS is close to correct (360 hours out so) temperatures at or just above normal and rather dry.

[Gravity Wave]

Late May-mid June has historically been the best severe window for the northern mid-Atlantic, at least for areas away from the immediate coast. 

[nycwinter]

looks like a few more opportunities to wear the hoodie in the next week..

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat cooler. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and middle 70s.

As of 3 pm PDT, Portland had reached 92°, which tied the daily record set in 1973. Portland's preliminary low temperature of 57° was positioned to break the existing record high minimum reading of 56°, which was set in 1959 and tied in 1981). Seattle and Olympia were just 1° below their daily records.

Near record and record heat will continue in the Pacific Northwest. Even as the heat slowly abates early next week, readings will remain much above normal for the season through much of the week.

The generally above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday. Afterward, a cool front will bring somewhat cooler than normal readings to the region. Readings will likely average near or just below normal through the remainder of the week.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Whether that will be the case this year remains to be seen. For now, the outcome is far too close to call with the sensitivity analysis showing a almost a "coin toss" outcome. However, some of the more recent guidance has begun to tilt toward a warmer outcome. Uncertainty persists for second half of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around May 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -28.48 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.401 today.

On May 11 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.332 (RMM). The May 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.542 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

 

[psv88]

83 today

[SRRTA22]

Season of tiny flying white fuzzies , don't know what they are but they're everywhere

[Will - Rutgers]

29 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Season of tiny flying white fuzzies , don't know what they are but they're everywhere

poplar fluff?

[rclab]

2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

Season of tiny flying white fuzzies , don't know what they are but they're everywhere

 

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

poplar fluff?

Good evening SRRTA22, Will. I believe Will is right. It could be the eastern cotton wood tree that, is a poplar. It exudes a cotton like fluff around the seed. I encountered it while in college in Arkansa 55 years ago. It looked like gently falling snow. Stay well, as always….

[weathermedic]

Comfortable night. Temp 73 DP 38. Take advantage of the low dews. They won’t last too long. 

[IrishRob17]

14 hours ago, rclab said:

 

Good evening SRRTA22, Will. I believe Will is right. It could be the eastern cotton wood tree that, is a poplar. It exudes a cotton like fluff around the seed. I encountered it while in college in Arkansa 55 years ago. It looked like gently falling snow. Stay well, as always….

Hi Rich, agreed on the Cottonwood. A neighbors house had those when I was growing up and out yard would be covered, sometimes, we'd have to sweep the deck as if it was a dusting of snow.  Made it down to 43 for the low. 

[the_other_guy]

16 hours ago, nycwinter said:

looks like a few more opportunities to wear the hoodie in the next week..

we need to take this as long as we can get it. A little rain between all of this would be nice but other than that we know it’s coming in July and August and gasp September

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    63degs.(53/72) or -1.

Month to date is    61.7[+0.9].       Should be     62.2[+0.2] by the 22nd.

Reached 80 here yesterday.

Today:   67-71, wind n., p. cloudy, 53 tomorrow AM.

62*(34%RH) here at 7am{was 72* at midnight}.     63* at 8am.    64* at 9am.   64* at 11am.    62* at Noon.     61* at 1pm.      65* at 3pm.     68* at 6pm.     Reached 69* at 6:30pm.

[SACRUS]

 

65 and partly cloudy, sunny and dry much of the week.  Mid 70s today, upper 70s tomorrow, low 80s Tue (5/16).  Cooler Wed (5/17) - Thu (5/18) staying near or below 70.  Brief warmup Fri (5/19), before the next chance of meaningful rain Sat (5/20).  Overall not a sign for any real departures either way, brief warmup 5/23-5/24.  Ridging building east by Memorial day.  Beyond there  signal for onshore flow later in the range but looking warmer/ humid end of the month.

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging    63degs.(53/72) or -1.

Month to date is    61.7[+0.9].       Should be     62.2[+0.2] by the 22nd.

Reached 80 here yesterday.

Today:   67-71, wind n., p. cloudy, 53 tomorrow AM.

62*(34%RH) here at 7am.     63* at 8am.

 

Drying out again, we'll see if a more humid/perhaps stormier pattern comes around later next week (after 5/25)

[MANDA]

26 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Drying out again, we'll see if a more humid/perhaps stormier pattern comes around later next week (after 5/25)

Tough pattern for gardeners.  Seems like feast or famine in the rainfall department lately.

[nycwinter]

enjoying this very dry weather makes for cool comfortable nights when it is dark and i can wear a hoodie at home...

[bluewave]

Looks like the far interior sections will have a freeze this week with the record +PNA block.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 86  (1991)  lowest record highs for the month
NYC: 88 (1900)
LGA: 84 (1991)

Lows:

 

EWR: 36 (1939)
NYC: 40 (1878)
LGA: 44 (2019)

Historical:

 

1896 - The mercury plunged to 10 degrees below zero at Climax, CO. It was the lowest reading of record for the U.S. during the month of May. (David Ludlum)

1898 - A severe thunderstorm, with some hailstones up to 9.5 inches in circumference, pounded a four mile wide path across Kansas City MO. South-facing windows were broken in nearly every house in central and eastern parts of the city, and several persons were injured. An even larger hailstone was thought to have been found, but it turned out to be a chunk of ice tossed out the window of a building by a prankster. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)

 

1923: An early morning violent estimated F5 tornado cut a 45-mile path of destruction through Howard and Mitchell counties in Texas. 23 people lost their lives and 250 sustained injuries. The path width of the tornado reached 1.5 miles at one point, and entire farms were "wiped off the face of the earth."  The First Baptist Church in Colorado City, Texas became an emergency hospital for tornado victims.

1987 - Seven cities across the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as unseasonably hot weather made a comeback. The record high of 103 degrees at Sacramento CA was their ninth in eleven days, and also marked a record seven days of 100 degree heat for the month. Their previous record was two days of 100 degree heat in May. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Sunny and dry weather prevailed across the nation. Temperatures warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the Great Plains Region and the Mississippi Valley. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather in south central Texas and the Southern High Plains Region during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail at Spearman and Hitchcock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwest Texas to western Missouri. Severe thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including nine in Texas. Four tornadoes in Texas injured a total of nine persons. Thunderstorms in Texas also produced hail four inches in diameter at Shamrock, and hail four and a half inches in diameter near Guthrie. Thunderstorms over northeastern Kansas produced more than seven inches of rain in Chautauqua County between 9 PM and midnight. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

[SACRUS]

Daylight 14H 29M about the same as Jul 29.

[SnoSki14]

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Daylight 14H 29M about the same as Jul 29.

Midsummer sun but weatherwise it couldn't be more different