Rjay Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 27 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: UKMET is still warm. Have to go well to the NW to see any snow on that model. I know that isn't a great model. I wouldn't put much stock in it, but this is a very borderline situation. 17 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Sorry if this is too blunt but I honestly could care less that model is terrible. The ukie is a good model with questionable thermals. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Not expecting a flake with these thermals (45 miles due south of NYC). Unfortunately not working this weekend to catch whatever falls just west of the city, either. But I am seriously rooting for a positive bust for you guys. We need this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 So close on the Euro. Just need it a tick colder to get a decent event here. Still plenty of time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: So close on the Euro. Just need it a tick colder to get a decent event here. Still plenty of time. It's plenty cold enough if the precip is heavy enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It's plenty cold enough if the precip is heavy enough The Euro shows the same amount of precip for my area as it does to the north and west, yet it has a few inches more of snow to the northwest. The issue is the temps. It's very borderline for this area, but there's plenty of time for it to trend colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 So close on the Euro. Just need it a tick colder to get a decent event here. Still plenty of time. It still looks like a 1-2 inch event, especially north and west of the city 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 what unit of measurement is a tick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: The Euro shows the same amount of precip for my area as it does to the north and west, yet it has a few inches more of snow to the northwest. The issue is the temps. It's very borderline for this area, but there's plenty of time for it to trend colder. Dynamic cooling. If the precip comes down heavy enough you WILL snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, forkyfork said: what unit of measurement is a tick 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: what unit of measurement is a tick LOL. I think it's slang for just a slight amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 can't you guys use real words 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: what unit of measurement is a tick It's extremely small. I took one off my dog earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 We need a faster intensification closer to the coast. It can happen and trends during the final 3 days usually go north except when we need it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 32 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: So close on the Euro. Just need it a tick colder to get a decent event here. Still plenty of time. Still think this one has a better chance at delivering snow than wave 2 with more cold air available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 WE HAD A FORKY SIGHTING!! I think that means he sees potential for the area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: can't you guys use real words I've heard it used many times. I thought it was slang, but I just looked it up and it appears that it actually is real word for a small amount... https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 59 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: LOL. I think it's slang for just a slight amount. We had another word for a small unit of measurement in the construction business but I can't repeat it here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 55 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: WE HAD A FORKY SIGHTING!! I think that means he sees potential for the area. How can anyone not see potential when Euro has a 972 at the BM for storm 2. Details to be sorted out. oh wait sorry wrong thread but I assumed we were taking storm 2, storm 1 seems like a pretty minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: what unit of measurement is a tick What constitutes a fidget? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3k colder. All snow now 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 23 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 3k colder. All snow now RGEM just came in a little colder too. Hopefully we can pull off a few inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 3k colder. All snow now 3k sucks lol Just being honest....I hope it's right but its trash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Rgem colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rgem colder Personally I'd trust kuchera maps more than 10:1 in this setup given the marginal airmass and lack of heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Personally I'd trust kuchera maps more than 10:1 in this setup given the marginal airmass and lack of heavy precip. Forky said in the last storm to use 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Forky said in the last storm to use 10 to 1. I don't think that worked out too well for the immediate coast. That storm also had better dynamics for our area than this one. The best rates here should be PA/Maybe Western NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: I don't think that worked out too well for the immediate coast. That storm also had better dynamics than this one. The ratio here in the last storm was probably 8:1 and that was with temps 31-32 during the snow. On the immediate coast it didn’t accumulate because temps were stuck at 34-35. We can definitely get accumulation from this if rates increase but we want to veer the wind direction to offshore and get temps down preferably to freezing or below. On the coast that will be hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The ratio here in the last storm was probably 8:1 and that was with temps 31-32 during the snow. On the immediate coast it didn’t accumulate because temps were stuck at 34-35. We can definitely get accumulation from this if rates increase but we want to veer the wind direction to offshore and get temps down preferably to freezing or below. On the coast that will be hard. The only advantage this time is we don't have to worry about mid level warming but going to be hard to get down to freezing with light-moderate precip, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Forky said in the last storm to use 10 to 1. I think he said to start at 10:1 and adjust from there based on temp profiles. Kuchera doesn't account for all heights I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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