March 11th storm threat

[winterwx21]

A brief period of non-accumulating wet snow, but mostly a rain/snow mix here this morning. RGEM ended up being correct with the warm solution for this area. Still stuck on 4 inches of snow for this miserable winter. 

[Winterweatherlover]

On 3/9/2023 at 5:03 PM, Winterweatherlover said:

I'm not expecting 2-3 inches where I live so you can imagine what I think of the 2-3 inches down to JFK unless you get Norluned lol. 

Well guess this outdid even my own low expectations since no accumulation at all.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Well guess this outdid even my own low expectations since no accumulation at all.

it snowed for about 30 min here lol and then it switched to drizzle and now it looks like the sun is trying to come out

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Well guess this outdid even my own low expectations since no accumulation at all.

Sadly, this storm provides a fresh reminder that one should never doubt the tenacious persistence of a ratter winter.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Sadly, this storm provides a fresh reminder that one should never doubt the tenacious persistence of a ratter winter.

that plus being overly optimistic on extremely marginal late season events

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that plus being overly optimistic on extremely marginal late season events

The ensembles were never very attractive for this event (500 mb maps were skewed by a small number of high impact scenarios) and the National Blend of Models never went much above an inch (showing a few tenths of an inch most of the time).

We'll see what happens with the next event. The NBM was at 2.3" but is falling. The ensembles have some support for a light event, but very little support for a big event. There's still some time for change, but if the ensembles remain essentially where they are today through Sunday's 12z runs, that will be a strong signal for what would largely be a non-event in and around the City. Interior sections are continuing to look good. Boston has even seen ensemble support for 10" or above rise from about one-quarter of members to just over one-third of members.

And, in terms of history, if historic experience is representative, NYC is on a trajectory toward a less than 10" season. That's not a guarantee, but that is now a likely outcome.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ensembles were never very attractive for this event (500 mb maps were skewed by a small number of high impact scenarios) and the National Blend of Models never went much above an inch (showing a few tenths of an inch most of the time).

We'll see what happens with the next event. The NBM was at 2.3" but is falling. The ensembles have some support for a light event, but very little support for a big event. There's still some time for change, but if the ensembles remain essentially where they are today through Sunday's 12z runs, that will be a strong signal for what would largely be a non-event in and around the City. Interior sections are continuing to look good. Boston has even seen ensemble support for 10" or above rise from about one-quarter of members to just over one-third of members.

And, in terms of history, if historic experience is representative, NYC is on a trajectory toward a less than 10" season. That's not a guarantee, but that is now a likely outcome.

Don, with this skewing going on, could we calculate the mode instead of the mean? I think that would be useful, as it often is with snowfall to cancel out the extreme members.

I think we have a reasonable chance to stay below the 2001-02 snowfall figure, which was my least snowiest (I wasn't alive for 1972-73).

[psv88]

Nothing here

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, with this skewing going on, could we calculate the mode instead of the mean? I think that would be useful, as it often is with snowfall to cancel out the extreme members.

I think we have a reasonable chance to stay below the 2001-02 snowfall figure, which was my least snowiest (I wasn't alive for 1972-73).

The anomaly maps produced by the vendors don’t show ensemble spread. That’s why it’s useful to look at the percentage of members showing given outcomes. Then, one can gain a sense of the likelihood of a number of scenarios and also how things are evolving over time.

That also provides useful context for operational runs. For example, the 12z GFS is much improved for NYC even adjusting 10:1 ratios to more likely 5-7:1 ones. There are a modest number of ensemble members that support that outcome. But it won’t mean much if support on the ensembles doesn’t increase, other models don’t move toward that outcome, etc.

[LibertyBell]

Total of 8 inches of a heavy wet snow in the Poconos, pretty heavy on the trees, putting them in a precarious position.  There's also a layer of ice under the heavy wet snow, I think the bottom layer melted and refroze.

It didn't stop falling until like 1 in the afternoon, it fell for over 24 hours since it started Friday morning.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

The last picture didn't upload properly so let's try it again.

 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Snowfall totals across the tri-state area